Ongoing US-Iran naval blockades and recent skirmishes have kept commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz at a small fraction of normal levels, with daily transits averaging just 5–9 vessels in late April and early May amid mutual restrictions and heightened risks. Major carriers continue rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, while roughly 1,550–2,000 ships remain stranded in the Persian Gulf due to insurance cancellations, seizure threats, and enforcement actions by both sides. A brief April reopening attempt collapsed within days, and the post-ceasefire deadlock shows no immediate path to full resumption before month-end. Traders therefore assign overwhelming weight to the 0–10 outcome, viewing sustained low single-digit averages as the most likely near-term result absent a rapid diplomatic breakthrough.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoAvg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of May?
Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of May?
0-10 87%
10-20 6%
20-40 3.4%
60+ 3.2%
$320,451 Wol.
$320,451 Wol.
May 31, 2026
0-10
87%
10-20
6%
20-40
3%
40-60
2%
60+
3%
0-10 87%
10-20 6%
20-40 3.4%
60+ 3.2%
$320,451 Wol.
$320,451 Wol.
May 31, 2026
0-10
$170,835 Wol.
87%
10-20
$42,858 Wol.
6%
20-40
$34,031 Wol.
3%
40-60
$27,429 Wol.
2%
60+
$45,298 Wol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for May 31, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to May 31, 2026, for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for May 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing US-Iran naval blockades and recent skirmishes have kept commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz at a small fraction of normal levels, with daily transits averaging just 5–9 vessels in late April and early May amid mutual restrictions and heightened risks. Major carriers continue rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, while roughly 1,550–2,000 ships remain stranded in the Persian Gulf due to insurance cancellations, seizure threats, and enforcement actions by both sides. A brief April reopening attempt collapsed within days, and the post-ceasefire deadlock shows no immediate path to full resumption before month-end. Traders therefore assign overwhelming weight to the 0–10 outcome, viewing sustained low single-digit averages as the most likely near-term result absent a rapid diplomatic breakthrough.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for May 31, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to May 31, 2026, for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for May 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to May 31, 2026, for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for May 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Rynek otwarty: Apr 30, 2026, 3:15 PM ET
Wolumen
$320,451Data zakończenia
May 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 30, 2026, 3:15 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for May 31, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to May 31, 2026, for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for May 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing US-Iran naval blockades and recent skirmishes have kept commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz at a small fraction of normal levels, with daily transits averaging just 5–9 vessels in late April and early May amid mutual restrictions and heightened risks. Major carriers continue rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, while roughly 1,550–2,000 ships remain stranded in the Persian Gulf due to insurance cancellations, seizure threats, and enforcement actions by both sides. A brief April reopening attempt collapsed within days, and the post-ceasefire deadlock shows no immediate path to full resumption before month-end. Traders therefore assign overwhelming weight to the 0–10 outcome, viewing sustained low single-digit averages as the most likely near-term result absent a rapid diplomatic breakthrough.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for May 31, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to May 31, 2026, for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for May 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to May 31, 2026, for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for May 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Wolumen
$320,451Data zakończenia
May 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 30, 2026, 3:15 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ongoing US-Iran naval blockades and recent skirmishes have kept commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz at a small fraction of normal levels, with daily transits averaging just 5–9 vessels in late April and early May amid mutual restrictions and heightened risks. Major carriers continue rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, while roughly 1,550–2,000 ships remain stranded in the Persian Gulf due to insurance cancellations, seizure threats, and enforcement actions by both sides. A brief April reopening attempt collapsed within days, and the post-ceasefire deadlock shows no immediate path to full resumption before month-end. Traders therefore assign overwhelming weight to the 0–10 outcome, viewing sustained low single-digit averages as the most likely near-term result absent a rapid diplomatic breakthrough.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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