Trader consensus on a "blue tsunami"—defined as massive Democratic gains like 30+ House seats and Senate control—prices No at 59% amid modest generic ballot leads favoring Democrats by 6-7 points in May polls from Ipsos, YouGov, and Nate Silver's D+6.1 average as of May 14. Low Trump approval ratings, underwater by 25 points per ABC-Washington Post, record 38 Republican House retirements, and Democratic overperformance in special elections signal midterm headwinds for the president's party, echoing 2006 dynamics highlighted in recent analysis. However, GOP advantages from redistricting in battleground states and a Senate map with competitive races in Georgia, Texas, Michigan, and North Carolina cap expectations for tsunami-level flips, with House control odds closer to a standard shift. Primaries starting soon could alter momentum.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano$27,572 Wol.
$27,572 Wol.
Nov 30, 2026
$27,572 Wol.
$27,572 Wol.
Nov 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- Democrats hold 235 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 51 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueTsunami.pdfTrader consensus on a "blue tsunami"—defined as massive Democratic gains like 30+ House seats and Senate control—prices No at 59% amid modest generic ballot leads favoring Democrats by 6-7 points in May polls from Ipsos, YouGov, and Nate Silver's D+6.1 average as of May 14. Low Trump approval ratings, underwater by 25 points per ABC-Washington Post, record 38 Republican House retirements, and Democratic overperformance in special elections signal midterm headwinds for the president's party, echoing 2006 dynamics highlighted in recent analysis. However, GOP advantages from redistricting in battleground states and a Senate map with competitive races in Georgia, Texas, Michigan, and North Carolina cap expectations for tsunami-level flips, with House control odds closer to a standard shift. Primaries starting soon could alter momentum.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- Democrats hold 235 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 51 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueTsunami.pdf
- Democrats hold 235 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 51 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueTsunami.pdf
Rynek otwarty: Jan 13, 2026, 7:52 PM ET
Wolumen
$27,572Data zakończenia
Nov 30, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 13, 2026, 7:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- Democrats hold 235 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 51 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueTsunami.pdfTrader consensus on a "blue tsunami"—defined as massive Democratic gains like 30+ House seats and Senate control—prices No at 59% amid modest generic ballot leads favoring Democrats by 6-7 points in May polls from Ipsos, YouGov, and Nate Silver's D+6.1 average as of May 14. Low Trump approval ratings, underwater by 25 points per ABC-Washington Post, record 38 Republican House retirements, and Democratic overperformance in special elections signal midterm headwinds for the president's party, echoing 2006 dynamics highlighted in recent analysis. However, GOP advantages from redistricting in battleground states and a Senate map with competitive races in Georgia, Texas, Michigan, and North Carolina cap expectations for tsunami-level flips, with House control odds closer to a standard shift. Primaries starting soon could alter momentum.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- Democrats hold 235 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 51 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueTsunami.pdf
- Democrats hold 235 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 51 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueTsunami.pdf
Wolumen
$27,572Data zakończenia
Nov 30, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 13, 2026, 7:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on a "blue tsunami"—defined as massive Democratic gains like 30+ House seats and Senate control—prices No at 59% amid modest generic ballot leads favoring Democrats by 6-7 points in May polls from Ipsos, YouGov, and Nate Silver's D+6.1 average as of May 14. Low Trump approval ratings, underwater by 25 points per ABC-Washington Post, record 38 Republican House retirements, and Democratic overperformance in special elections signal midterm headwinds for the president's party, echoing 2006 dynamics highlighted in recent analysis. However, GOP advantages from redistricting in battleground states and a Senate map with competitive races in Georgia, Texas, Michigan, and North Carolina cap expectations for tsunami-level flips, with House control odds closer to a standard shift. Primaries starting soon could alter momentum.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Często zadawane pytania