Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, recently reported near 3.4–3.5% year-over-year in July CPI amid energy supply shocks, combined with solid GDP expansion and labor market resilience, has anchored trader expectations for the December 8–9 FOMC meeting. With the federal funds rate held at 3.50–3.75% following the July 9–3 decision and three members dissenting in favor of an immediate 25 basis point hike, futures markets and Polymarket odds reflect a hawkish tilt, pricing the highest probability on no change while assigning meaningful weight to a modest tightening. Upcoming September and November meetings, along with fresh PCE and employment data, remain key swing factors that could shift the implied rate path.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoFed Decision in December?
Fed Decision in December?
No change 68%
25 bps increase 26%
25 bps decrease 7.4%
50+ bps decrease 1.3%
$157,114 Wol.
$157,114 Wol.
Dec 9, 2026
50+ bps decrease
1%
25 bps decrease
7%
No change
68%
25 bps increase
26%
50+ bps increase
1%
No change 68%
25 bps increase 26%
25 bps decrease 7.4%
50+ bps decrease 1.3%
$157,114 Wol.
$157,114 Wol.
Dec 9, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$28,210 Wol.
1%
25 bps decrease
$40,668 Wol.
7%
No change
$36,759 Wol.
68%
25 bps increase
$28,036 Wol.
26%
50+ bps increase
$23,441 Wol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, recently reported near 3.4–3.5% year-over-year in July CPI amid energy supply shocks, combined with solid GDP expansion and labor market resilience, has anchored trader expectations for the December 8–9 FOMC meeting. With the federal funds rate held at 3.50–3.75% following the July 9–3 decision and three members dissenting in favor of an immediate 25 basis point hike, futures markets and Polymarket odds reflect a hawkish tilt, pricing the highest probability on no change while assigning meaningful weight to a modest tightening. Upcoming September and November meetings, along with fresh PCE and employment data, remain key swing factors that could shift the implied rate path.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Rynek otwarty: Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ET
Wolumen
$157,114Data zakończenia
Dec 9, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, recently reported near 3.4–3.5% year-over-year in July CPI amid energy supply shocks, combined with solid GDP expansion and labor market resilience, has anchored trader expectations for the December 8–9 FOMC meeting. With the federal funds rate held at 3.50–3.75% following the July 9–3 decision and three members dissenting in favor of an immediate 25 basis point hike, futures markets and Polymarket odds reflect a hawkish tilt, pricing the highest probability on no change while assigning meaningful weight to a modest tightening. Upcoming September and November meetings, along with fresh PCE and employment data, remain key swing factors that could shift the implied rate path.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Wolumen
$157,114Data zakończenia
Dec 9, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, recently reported near 3.4–3.5% year-over-year in July CPI amid energy supply shocks, combined with solid GDP expansion and labor market resilience, has anchored trader expectations for the December 8–9 FOMC meeting. With the federal funds rate held at 3.50–3.75% following the July 9–3 decision and three members dissenting in favor of an immediate 25 basis point hike, futures markets and Polymarket odds reflect a hawkish tilt, pricing the highest probability on no change while assigning meaningful weight to a modest tightening. Upcoming September and November meetings, along with fresh PCE and employment data, remain key swing factors that could shift the implied rate path.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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