Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts for Tokyo on August 5 point to a maximum of 30°C under mostly clear skies with increasing cloudiness later, aligning closely with the 55% market-implied probability for that threshold and 32.5% for 31°C. Persistent influence from the Pacific High has sustained above-normal summer temperatures across central Japan, though no extreme heatwave intensification is currently modeled. Historical August averages near 31.8°C provide context, while urban heat island effects in Tokyo can add 1–2°C locally. Traders appear to weigh the stable official guidance against minor model variability in afternoon peak timing, with resolution hinging on the final verified observation rather than forecasts.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Tokyo on August 5?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 5?
31°C 45%
30°C 43%
32°C 5%
33°C <1%
$64,745 Wol.
$64,745 Wol.
Aug 5, 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
43%
31°C
45%
32°C
5%
33°C
<1%
34°C
<1%
35°C or higher
<1%
31°C 45%
30°C 43%
32°C 5%
33°C <1%
$64,745 Wol.
$64,745 Wol.
Aug 5, 2026
25°C or below
$744 Wol.
<1%
26°C
$2,032 Wol.
<1%
27°C
$4,187 Wol.
<1%
28°C
$7,665 Wol.
<1%
29°C
$19,124 Wol.
<1%
30°C
$7,313 Wol.
43%
31°C
$4,357 Wol.
45%
32°C
$4,516 Wol.
5%
33°C
$5,094 Wol.
<1%
34°C
$4,173 Wol.
<1%
35°C or higher
$5,542 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts for Tokyo on August 5 point to a maximum of 30°C under mostly clear skies with increasing cloudiness later, aligning closely with the 55% market-implied probability for that threshold and 32.5% for 31°C. Persistent influence from the Pacific High has sustained above-normal summer temperatures across central Japan, though no extreme heatwave intensification is currently modeled. Historical August averages near 31.8°C provide context, while urban heat island effects in Tokyo can add 1–2°C locally. Traders appear to weigh the stable official guidance against minor model variability in afternoon peak timing, with resolution hinging on the final verified observation rather than forecasts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 3, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Wolumen
$64,745Data zakończenia
Aug 5, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 3, 2026, 12:05 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts for Tokyo on August 5 point to a maximum of 30°C under mostly clear skies with increasing cloudiness later, aligning closely with the 55% market-implied probability for that threshold and 32.5% for 31°C. Persistent influence from the Pacific High has sustained above-normal summer temperatures across central Japan, though no extreme heatwave intensification is currently modeled. Historical August averages near 31.8°C provide context, while urban heat island effects in Tokyo can add 1–2°C locally. Traders appear to weigh the stable official guidance against minor model variability in afternoon peak timing, with resolution hinging on the final verified observation rather than forecasts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$64,745Data zakończenia
Aug 5, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 3, 2026, 12:05 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts for Tokyo on August 5 point to a maximum of 30°C under mostly clear skies with increasing cloudiness later, aligning closely with the 55% market-implied probability for that threshold and 32.5% for 31°C. Persistent influence from the Pacific High has sustained above-normal summer temperatures across central Japan, though no extreme heatwave intensification is currently modeled. Historical August averages near 31.8°C provide context, while urban heat island effects in Tokyo can add 1–2°C locally. Traders appear to weigh the stable official guidance against minor model variability in afternoon peak timing, with resolution hinging on the final verified observation rather than forecasts.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Często zadawane pytania