**Current forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency position a 32°C maximum as the most probable outcome for Tokyo on August 6, aligning with the market’s leading 39.5% implied probability.** The official JMA guidance issued August 5 calls for a high of 32°C under mostly cloudy skies with partial clearing later, near the long-term daily normal of 31.8°C. Recent model consensus and nearby observations cluster between 31–33°C, explaining the combined 86.5% probability on 31–33°C. Summer 2026 has featured above-normal temperatures across eastern Japan due to persistent high pressure and warm air advection, though no intense heat wave or typhoon influence is expected to push extremes higher on this date. Traders appear to weight the official forecast heavily while assigning modest odds to slight upward or downward revisions from final observational data or urban heat island effects at the primary measurement site. Updated model runs and the next JMA briefing remain the primary near-term catalysts.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Tokyo on August 6?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 6?
32°C 38%
33°C 30%
31°C 18%
34°C 11%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 6, 2026
26°C or below
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
2%
30°C
5%
31°C
18%
32°C
38%
33°C
30%
34°C
11%
35°C
3%
36°C or higher
<1%
32°C 38%
33°C 30%
31°C 18%
34°C 11%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 6, 2026
26°C or below
$531 Wol.
<1%
27°C
$636 Wol.
<1%
28°C
$1,499 Wol.
<1%
29°C
$669 Wol.
2%
30°C
$598 Wol.
5%
31°C
$1,093 Wol.
18%
32°C
$873 Wol.
38%
33°C
$856 Wol.
30%
34°C
$1,147 Wol.
11%
35°C
$661 Wol.
3%
36°C or higher
$778 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency position a 32°C maximum as the most probable outcome for Tokyo on August 6, aligning with the market’s leading 39.5% implied probability.** The official JMA guidance issued August 5 calls for a high of 32°C under mostly cloudy skies with partial clearing later, near the long-term daily normal of 31.8°C. Recent model consensus and nearby observations cluster between 31–33°C, explaining the combined 86.5% probability on 31–33°C. Summer 2026 has featured above-normal temperatures across eastern Japan due to persistent high pressure and warm air advection, though no intense heat wave or typhoon influence is expected to push extremes higher on this date. Traders appear to weight the official forecast heavily while assigning modest odds to slight upward or downward revisions from final observational data or urban heat island effects at the primary measurement site. Updated model runs and the next JMA briefing remain the primary near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 4, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Wolumen
$9,340Data zakończenia
Aug 6, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 4, 2026, 12:02 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency position a 32°C maximum as the most probable outcome for Tokyo on August 6, aligning with the market’s leading 39.5% implied probability.** The official JMA guidance issued August 5 calls for a high of 32°C under mostly cloudy skies with partial clearing later, near the long-term daily normal of 31.8°C. Recent model consensus and nearby observations cluster between 31–33°C, explaining the combined 86.5% probability on 31–33°C. Summer 2026 has featured above-normal temperatures across eastern Japan due to persistent high pressure and warm air advection, though no intense heat wave or typhoon influence is expected to push extremes higher on this date. Traders appear to weight the official forecast heavily while assigning modest odds to slight upward or downward revisions from final observational data or urban heat island effects at the primary measurement site. Updated model runs and the next JMA briefing remain the primary near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$9,340Data zakończenia
Aug 6, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 4, 2026, 12:02 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Current forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency position a 32°C maximum as the most probable outcome for Tokyo on August 6, aligning with the market’s leading 39.5% implied probability.** The official JMA guidance issued August 5 calls for a high of 32°C under mostly cloudy skies with partial clearing later, near the long-term daily normal of 31.8°C. Recent model consensus and nearby observations cluster between 31–33°C, explaining the combined 86.5% probability on 31–33°C. Summer 2026 has featured above-normal temperatures across eastern Japan due to persistent high pressure and warm air advection, though no intense heat wave or typhoon influence is expected to push extremes higher on this date. Traders appear to weight the official forecast heavily while assigning modest odds to slight upward or downward revisions from final observational data or urban heat island effects at the primary measurement site. Updated model runs and the next JMA briefing remain the primary near-term catalysts.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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