Geopolitical tensions stemming from the ongoing U.S.-Israel operations against Iran since late February have sharply curtailed commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, positioning the 20-39 transits outcome as the market consensus at 63% implied probability. Daily volumes have fallen to single digits or near zero since early May amid Iranian restrictions, U.S. blockades targeting sanctioned vessels, and safety concerns that have stranded hundreds of tankers in the Persian Gulf. Recent developments, including limited permitted crossings by select oil tankers on May 10-11 and ongoing Iranian demands for transit declarations, reinforce expectations for subdued activity through the week of May 11 rather than a rapid rebound toward historical norms of over 100 vessels daily. Traders are pricing in persistent uncertainty from regulatory hurdles and military presence, with only modest upside risk from any short-term de-escalation.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHow many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of May 11?
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of May 11?
20-39 64%
40-59 27%
60-79 5.0%
<20 3.1%
$80,580 Wol.
$80,580 Wol.
May 17, 2026
<20
3%
20-39
64%
40-59
27%
60-79
5%
80+
2%
20-39 64%
40-59 27%
60-79 5.0%
<20 3.1%
$80,580 Wol.
$80,580 Wol.
May 17, 2026
<20
$28,472 Wol.
3%
20-39
$13,572 Wol.
64%
40-59
$14,650 Wol.
27%
60-79
$12,115 Wol.
5%
80+
$11,916 Wol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 11, 2026, through May 17, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Geopolitical tensions stemming from the ongoing U.S.-Israel operations against Iran since late February have sharply curtailed commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, positioning the 20-39 transits outcome as the market consensus at 63% implied probability. Daily volumes have fallen to single digits or near zero since early May amid Iranian restrictions, U.S. blockades targeting sanctioned vessels, and safety concerns that have stranded hundreds of tankers in the Persian Gulf. Recent developments, including limited permitted crossings by select oil tankers on May 10-11 and ongoing Iranian demands for transit declarations, reinforce expectations for subdued activity through the week of May 11 rather than a rapid rebound toward historical norms of over 100 vessels daily. Traders are pricing in persistent uncertainty from regulatory hurdles and military presence, with only modest upside risk from any short-term de-escalation.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 11, 2026, through May 17, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Rynek otwarty: May 8, 2026, 12:47 PM ET
Wolumen
$80,580Data zakończenia
May 17, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 8, 2026, 12:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 11, 2026, through May 17, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Geopolitical tensions stemming from the ongoing U.S.-Israel operations against Iran since late February have sharply curtailed commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, positioning the 20-39 transits outcome as the market consensus at 63% implied probability. Daily volumes have fallen to single digits or near zero since early May amid Iranian restrictions, U.S. blockades targeting sanctioned vessels, and safety concerns that have stranded hundreds of tankers in the Persian Gulf. Recent developments, including limited permitted crossings by select oil tankers on May 10-11 and ongoing Iranian demands for transit declarations, reinforce expectations for subdued activity through the week of May 11 rather than a rapid rebound toward historical norms of over 100 vessels daily. Traders are pricing in persistent uncertainty from regulatory hurdles and military presence, with only modest upside risk from any short-term de-escalation.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 11, 2026, through May 17, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Wolumen
$80,580Data zakończenia
May 17, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 8, 2026, 12:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Geopolitical tensions stemming from the ongoing U.S.-Israel operations against Iran since late February have sharply curtailed commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, positioning the 20-39 transits outcome as the market consensus at 63% implied probability. Daily volumes have fallen to single digits or near zero since early May amid Iranian restrictions, U.S. blockades targeting sanctioned vessels, and safety concerns that have stranded hundreds of tankers in the Persian Gulf. Recent developments, including limited permitted crossings by select oil tankers on May 10-11 and ongoing Iranian demands for transit declarations, reinforce expectations for subdued activity through the week of May 11 rather than a rapid rebound toward historical norms of over 100 vessels daily. Traders are pricing in persistent uncertainty from regulatory hurdles and military presence, with only modest upside risk from any short-term de-escalation.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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