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Geopolityka·Ormuz

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of May 18?

icon for How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of May 18?
Geopolityka·Ormuz

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of May 18?

May 17

May 24

May 17

May 24

20-39 47%

<20 35%

40-59 31%

80+ 20%

Polymarket
NOWE

20-39 47%

<20 35%

40-59 31%

80+ 20%

Polymarket
NOWE

<20

$21 Wol.

22%

20-39

$26 Wol.

38%

40-59

$0 Wol.

31%

60-79

$0 Wol.

19%

80+

$8 Wol.

20%

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 18, 2026, through May 24, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing US-Iran negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz remain stalled, with Iran maintaining restrictions on commercial traffic and the United States preparing naval escorts to facilitate transits. This deadlock has kept daily ship movements at a small fraction of normal levels since early March, with recent data showing single-digit daily crossings amid mine-clearance operations and route approvals limited to select vessels. Traders see the 20-39 and 40-59 ranges as the most probable outcomes for the week of May 18 because any diplomatic breakthrough or expanded US convoy protection could lift volumes toward the higher end, while renewed Iranian enforcement or delays in demining could cap them near the lower end. Scheduled talks and potential escort deployments in the coming days represent the clearest near-term catalysts for shifts in weekly totals.

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 18, 2026, through May 24, 2026, inclusive.

Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.

Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.

The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Wolumen
$55
Data zakończenia
May 24, 2026
Rynek otwarty
May 18, 2026, 3:45 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 18, 2026, through May 24, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 18, 2026, through May 24, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing US-Iran negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz remain stalled, with Iran maintaining restrictions on commercial traffic and the United States preparing naval escorts to facilitate transits. This deadlock has kept daily ship movements at a small fraction of normal levels since early March, with recent data showing single-digit daily crossings amid mine-clearance operations and route approvals limited to select vessels. Traders see the 20-39 and 40-59 ranges as the most probable outcomes for the week of May 18 because any diplomatic breakthrough or expanded US convoy protection could lift volumes toward the higher end, while renewed Iranian enforcement or delays in demining could cap them near the lower end. Scheduled talks and potential escort deployments in the coming days represent the clearest near-term catalysts for shifts in weekly totals.

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 18, 2026, through May 24, 2026, inclusive.

Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.

Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.

The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Wolumen
$55
Data zakończenia
May 24, 2026
Rynek otwarty
May 18, 2026, 3:45 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from May 18, 2026, through May 24, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

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Często zadawane pytania

"How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of May 18?" to rynek prognoz na Polymarket z 5 możliwymi wynikami, gdzie traderzy kupują i sprzedają udziały na podstawie tego, co ich zdaniem się wydarzy. Obecny wiodący wynik to "20-39" z 38%, za nim "40-59" z 31%. Ceny odzwierciedlają zbiorowe prawdopodobieństwa w czasie rzeczywistym. Na przykład udział wyceniony na 38¢ implikuje, że rynek zbiorowo przypisuje 38% szansy na ten wynik. Te kursy zmieniają się ciągle, gdy traderzy reagują na nowe informacje. Udziały w poprawnym wyniku można wymienić na $1 za sztukę po rozstrzygnięciu rynku.

"How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of May 18?" to nowo utworzony rynek na Polymarket, uruchomiony May 18, 2026. Jako wczesny rynek, to Twoja okazja, aby być jednym z pierwszych traderów, którzy ustalą kursy i określą początkowe sygnały cenowe rynku. Możesz też dodać tę stronę do zakładek, aby śledzić wolumen i aktywność handlową w miarę rozwoju rynku.

Aby handlować na "How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of May 18?", przeglądaj 5 dostępnych wyników na tej stronie. Każdy wynik wyświetla bieżącą cenę reprezentującą implikowane prawdopodobieństwo rynku. Aby zająć pozycję, wybierz wynik, który uważasz za najbardziej prawdopodobny, wybierz "Tak", aby handlować na jego korzyść, lub "Nie", aby handlować przeciw niemu, wpisz kwotę i kliknij "Handluj". Jeśli wybrany wynik okaże się poprawny, Twoje udziały "Tak" wypłacą $1 za sztukę. Jeśli jest niepoprawny, wypłacą $0. Możesz też sprzedać swoje udziały w dowolnym momencie przed rozstrzygnięciem.

Obecnym faworytem dla "How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of May 18?" jest "20-39" z 38%, co oznacza, że rynek przypisuje 38% szansy na ten wynik. Następny najbliższy wynik to "40-59" z 31%. Te kursy aktualizują się w czasie rzeczywistym, gdy traderzy kupują i sprzedają udziały, odzwierciedlając najnowszy zbiorowy pogląd na to, co jest najbardziej prawdopodobne. Sprawdzaj regularnie lub dodaj tę stronę do zakładek, aby śledzić zmiany kursów.

Zasady rozstrzygania "How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of May 18?" określają dokładnie, co musi się wydarzyć, aby każdy wynik został ogłoszony zwycięzcą — w tym oficjalne źródła danych używane do ustalenia wyniku. Możesz przejrzeć pełne kryteria rozstrzygania w sekcji "Zasady" na tej stronie nad komentarzami. Zalecamy dokładne zapoznanie się z zasadami przed handlem, ponieważ określają one precyzyjne warunki, przypadki graniczne i źródła regulujące rozstrzyganie tego rynku.