Iran’s consistent public position that uranium enrichment remains a sovereign right and non-negotiable red line has anchored trader expectations against any agreement to end the activity by September 30. Recent U.S.-Iran talks, including the June 2026 memorandum of understanding that deferred the enrichment question for further negotiation, have produced no movement on halting domestic enrichment, while IAEA reporting and Iranian statements confirm continued emphasis on this capability despite prior facility damage from strikes. With roughly six weeks remaining, the short timeline, absence of verified concessions, and Iran’s historical resistance to zero-enrichment demands sustain the market’s strong consensus. A sudden diplomatic breakthrough or revised U.S. framework before the deadline represents the primary scenario that could still shift the outcome.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoIran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by September 30?
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by September 30?
3% szansa
$62,705 Wol.
$62,705 Wol.
Sep 30, 2026
3% szansa
$62,705 Wol.
$62,705 Wol.
Sep 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Iran’s consistent public position that uranium enrichment remains a sovereign right and non-negotiable red line has anchored trader expectations against any agreement to end the activity by September 30. Recent U.S.-Iran talks, including the June 2026 memorandum of understanding that deferred the enrichment question for further negotiation, have produced no movement on halting domestic enrichment, while IAEA reporting and Iranian statements confirm continued emphasis on this capability despite prior facility damage from strikes. With roughly six weeks remaining, the short timeline, absence of verified concessions, and Iran’s historical resistance to zero-enrichment demands sustain the market’s strong consensus. A sudden diplomatic breakthrough or revised U.S. framework before the deadline represents the primary scenario that could still shift the outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Rynek otwarty: Jul 9, 2026, 9:43 AM ET
Wolumen
$62,705Data zakończenia
Sep 30, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 9, 2026, 9:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Iran’s consistent public position that uranium enrichment remains a sovereign right and non-negotiable red line has anchored trader expectations against any agreement to end the activity by September 30. Recent U.S.-Iran talks, including the June 2026 memorandum of understanding that deferred the enrichment question for further negotiation, have produced no movement on halting domestic enrichment, while IAEA reporting and Iranian statements confirm continued emphasis on this capability despite prior facility damage from strikes. With roughly six weeks remaining, the short timeline, absence of verified concessions, and Iran’s historical resistance to zero-enrichment demands sustain the market’s strong consensus. A sudden diplomatic breakthrough or revised U.S. framework before the deadline represents the primary scenario that could still shift the outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Wolumen
$62,705Data zakończenia
Sep 30, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jul 9, 2026, 9:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran’s consistent public position that uranium enrichment remains a sovereign right and non-negotiable red line has anchored trader expectations against any agreement to end the activity by September 30. Recent U.S.-Iran talks, including the June 2026 memorandum of understanding that deferred the enrichment question for further negotiation, have produced no movement on halting domestic enrichment, while IAEA reporting and Iranian statements confirm continued emphasis on this capability despite prior facility damage from strikes. With roughly six weeks remaining, the short timeline, absence of verified concessions, and Iran’s historical resistance to zero-enrichment demands sustain the market’s strong consensus. A sudden diplomatic breakthrough or revised U.S. framework before the deadline represents the primary scenario that could still shift the outcome.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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