Traders assign a 96.5% probability to no Iran-Oman agreement on Strait of Hormuz management by June 15 because recent Iranian announcements describe only draft protocols, coordination talks, and proposed transit fees rather than a finalized bilateral accord. Iranian officials, including the foreign minister and ambassador to Russia, have outlined joint oversight aligned with international law and services-based fees, yet these statements remain preliminary amid ongoing U.S. opposition and lack of Omani confirmation of a signed deal. U.S. rejection of Iranian control or tolls, combined with the five-day window and procedural requirements for any binding pact, sustains the strong consensus against near-term resolution. A last-minute announcement tied to broader ceasefire talks could still shift odds, though structural barriers and external pressures make that unlikely.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoIran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15?
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15?
$16,297 Wol.
$16,297 Wol.
Jun 15, 2026
$16,297 Wol.
$16,297 Wol.
Jun 15, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement relating to vessel traffic, transit management, tolling, or fee collection in the Strait of Hormuz, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between Iran and Oman between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Statements describing talks, proposals, negotiations, or non-finalized frameworks that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not qualify.
An agreement will qualify as a mutual agreement if it is confirmed as a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if the agreement isn’t formally announced by both governments.
Agreements that include Iran and Oman as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Iran and Oman; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Traders assign a 96.5% probability to no Iran-Oman agreement on Strait of Hormuz management by June 15 because recent Iranian announcements describe only draft protocols, coordination talks, and proposed transit fees rather than a finalized bilateral accord. Iranian officials, including the foreign minister and ambassador to Russia, have outlined joint oversight aligned with international law and services-based fees, yet these statements remain preliminary amid ongoing U.S. opposition and lack of Omani confirmation of a signed deal. U.S. rejection of Iranian control or tolls, combined with the five-day window and procedural requirements for any binding pact, sustains the strong consensus against near-term resolution. A last-minute announcement tied to broader ceasefire talks could still shift odds, though structural barriers and external pressures make that unlikely.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement relating to vessel traffic, transit management, tolling, or fee collection in the Strait of Hormuz, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between Iran and Oman between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Statements describing talks, proposals, negotiations, or non-finalized frameworks that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not qualify.
An agreement will qualify as a mutual agreement if it is confirmed as a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if the agreement isn’t formally announced by both governments.
Agreements that include Iran and Oman as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Iran and Oman; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Statements describing talks, proposals, negotiations, or non-finalized frameworks that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not qualify.
An agreement will qualify as a mutual agreement if it is confirmed as a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if the agreement isn’t formally announced by both governments.
Agreements that include Iran and Oman as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Iran and Oman; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Rynek otwarty: May 22, 2026, 5:04 PM ET
Wolumen
$16,297Data zakończenia
Jun 15, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 22, 2026, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement relating to vessel traffic, transit management, tolling, or fee collection in the Strait of Hormuz, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between Iran and Oman between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Statements describing talks, proposals, negotiations, or non-finalized frameworks that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not qualify.
An agreement will qualify as a mutual agreement if it is confirmed as a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if the agreement isn’t formally announced by both governments.
Agreements that include Iran and Oman as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Iran and Oman; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Traders assign a 96.5% probability to no Iran-Oman agreement on Strait of Hormuz management by June 15 because recent Iranian announcements describe only draft protocols, coordination talks, and proposed transit fees rather than a finalized bilateral accord. Iranian officials, including the foreign minister and ambassador to Russia, have outlined joint oversight aligned with international law and services-based fees, yet these statements remain preliminary amid ongoing U.S. opposition and lack of Omani confirmation of a signed deal. U.S. rejection of Iranian control or tolls, combined with the five-day window and procedural requirements for any binding pact, sustains the strong consensus against near-term resolution. A last-minute announcement tied to broader ceasefire talks could still shift odds, though structural barriers and external pressures make that unlikely.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement relating to vessel traffic, transit management, tolling, or fee collection in the Strait of Hormuz, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between Iran and Oman between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Statements describing talks, proposals, negotiations, or non-finalized frameworks that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not qualify.
An agreement will qualify as a mutual agreement if it is confirmed as a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if the agreement isn’t formally announced by both governments.
Agreements that include Iran and Oman as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Iran and Oman; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Statements describing talks, proposals, negotiations, or non-finalized frameworks that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not qualify.
An agreement will qualify as a mutual agreement if it is confirmed as a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if the agreement isn’t formally announced by both governments.
Agreements that include Iran and Oman as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Iran and Oman; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Wolumen
$16,297Data zakończenia
Jun 15, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 22, 2026, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 96.5% probability to no Iran-Oman agreement on Strait of Hormuz management by June 15 because recent Iranian announcements describe only draft protocols, coordination talks, and proposed transit fees rather than a finalized bilateral accord. Iranian officials, including the foreign minister and ambassador to Russia, have outlined joint oversight aligned with international law and services-based fees, yet these statements remain preliminary amid ongoing U.S. opposition and lack of Omani confirmation of a signed deal. U.S. rejection of Iranian control or tolls, combined with the five-day window and procedural requirements for any binding pact, sustains the strong consensus against near-term resolution. A last-minute announcement tied to broader ceasefire talks could still shift odds, though structural barriers and external pressures make that unlikely.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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