Ongoing tensions stemming from the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian targets and subsequent retaliatory missile activity initially prompted a full Israeli airspace closure to civilian flights, followed by partial reopening of Ben Gurion Airport in March with strict capacity limits and security reviews. Trader sentiment for a major new closure by late May has eased after European carriers including Lufthansa announced resumption plans for June, reflecting reduced perceived immediate threats. Current market pricing around 30% for a May 31 closure and 43% for June 30 incorporates monitoring of diplomatic signals, ongoing missile risks, and official security assessments that could still trigger renewed broad restrictions within the resolution window.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano$880,823 Wol.
Jun 30, 2026
May 31
31%
June 30
49%
$880,823 Wol.
May 31
$377,568 Wol.
31%
June 30
$8,017 Wol.
49%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing tensions stemming from the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian targets and subsequent retaliatory missile activity initially prompted a full Israeli airspace closure to civilian flights, followed by partial reopening of Ben Gurion Airport in March with strict capacity limits and security reviews. Trader sentiment for a major new closure by late May has eased after European carriers including Lufthansa announced resumption plans for June, reflecting reduced perceived immediate threats. Current market pricing around 30% for a May 31 closure and 43% for June 30 incorporates monitoring of diplomatic signals, ongoing missile risks, and official security assessments that could still trigger renewed broad restrictions within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rynek otwarty: May 12, 2026, 10:41 AM ET
Wolumen
$880,823Data zakończenia
May 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 12, 2026, 10:41 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing tensions stemming from the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian targets and subsequent retaliatory missile activity initially prompted a full Israeli airspace closure to civilian flights, followed by partial reopening of Ben Gurion Airport in March with strict capacity limits and security reviews. Trader sentiment for a major new closure by late May has eased after European carriers including Lufthansa announced resumption plans for June, reflecting reduced perceived immediate threats. Current market pricing around 30% for a May 31 closure and 43% for June 30 incorporates monitoring of diplomatic signals, ongoing missile risks, and official security assessments that could still trigger renewed broad restrictions within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Wolumen
$880,823Data zakończenia
May 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 12, 2026, 10:41 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing tensions stemming from the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian targets and subsequent retaliatory missile activity initially prompted a full Israeli airspace closure to civilian flights, followed by partial reopening of Ben Gurion Airport in March with strict capacity limits and security reviews. Trader sentiment for a major new closure by late May has eased after European carriers including Lufthansa announced resumption plans for June, reflecting reduced perceived immediate threats. Current market pricing around 30% for a May 31 closure and 43% for June 30 incorporates monitoring of diplomatic signals, ongoing missile risks, and official security assessments that could still trigger renewed broad restrictions within the resolution window.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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