Ongoing ceasefire talks between Israel and Lebanon, extended by 45 days through late June 2026 following Washington-mediated sessions, represent the main factor shaping trader views on a near-term Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon. Lebanese officials continue pressing for full troop pullback, border demarcation, and prisoner releases as part of any durable accord, while Israel maintains a buffer zone amid ongoing airstrikes and Hezbollah's conditional acceptance of the truce. Further diplomatic meetings scheduled for early June could clarify next steps on Lebanese Armed Forces deployment and disarmament commitments, though persistent violations and regional security concerns keep the timeline for complete withdrawal uncertain under current conditions.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoIsrael withdraws from Lebanon by...?
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?
$1,543,474 Wol.
Jun 30, 2026
May 31
1%
June 30
7%
$1,543,474 Wol.
May 31
$1,237,306 Wol.
1%
June 30
$231,161 Wol.
7%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.Ongoing ceasefire talks between Israel and Lebanon, extended by 45 days through late June 2026 following Washington-mediated sessions, represent the main factor shaping trader views on a near-term Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon. Lebanese officials continue pressing for full troop pullback, border demarcation, and prisoner releases as part of any durable accord, while Israel maintains a buffer zone amid ongoing airstrikes and Hezbollah's conditional acceptance of the truce. Further diplomatic meetings scheduled for early June could clarify next steps on Lebanese Armed Forces deployment and disarmament commitments, though persistent violations and regional security concerns keep the timeline for complete withdrawal uncertain under current conditions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Apr 16, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
Wolumen
$1,543,474Data zakończenia
Jun 30, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 16, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.Ongoing ceasefire talks between Israel and Lebanon, extended by 45 days through late June 2026 following Washington-mediated sessions, represent the main factor shaping trader views on a near-term Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon. Lebanese officials continue pressing for full troop pullback, border demarcation, and prisoner releases as part of any durable accord, while Israel maintains a buffer zone amid ongoing airstrikes and Hezbollah's conditional acceptance of the truce. Further diplomatic meetings scheduled for early June could clarify next steps on Lebanese Armed Forces deployment and disarmament commitments, though persistent violations and regional security concerns keep the timeline for complete withdrawal uncertain under current conditions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Wolumen
$1,543,474Data zakończenia
Jun 30, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 16, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing ceasefire talks between Israel and Lebanon, extended by 45 days through late June 2026 following Washington-mediated sessions, represent the main factor shaping trader views on a near-term Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon. Lebanese officials continue pressing for full troop pullback, border demarcation, and prisoner releases as part of any durable accord, while Israel maintains a buffer zone amid ongoing airstrikes and Hezbollah's conditional acceptance of the truce. Further diplomatic meetings scheduled for early June could clarify next steps on Lebanese Armed Forces deployment and disarmament commitments, though persistent violations and regional security concerns keep the timeline for complete withdrawal uncertain under current conditions.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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