Israeli and Lebanese delegations continue US-brokered talks in Washington aimed at implementing a ceasefire, advancing Hezbollah disarmament, securing full Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon, and addressing border demarcation along the Blue Line. A 45-day extension of the April 2026 cessation of hostilities was agreed on May 15, yet Israeli airstrikes on Hezbollah infrastructure persist, alongside military presence in buffer areas and forced displacement orders in southern villages. Lebanese officials insist on complete troop withdrawal before final agreements, while Israel links any pullback to verifiable security guarantees and Lebanese Armed Forces deployment south of the Litani River. These stalled negotiations and ongoing operations explain the market’s low implied probabilities for near-term resolution by late May or June 2026, with further diplomatic rounds scheduled for early June serving as the next potential catalyst.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoIsrael withdraws from Lebanon by...?
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?
$1,543,458 Wol.
Jun 30, 2026
May 31
1%
June 30
7%
$1,543,458 Wol.
May 31
$1,237,290 Wol.
1%
June 30
$231,161 Wol.
7%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.Israeli and Lebanese delegations continue US-brokered talks in Washington aimed at implementing a ceasefire, advancing Hezbollah disarmament, securing full Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon, and addressing border demarcation along the Blue Line. A 45-day extension of the April 2026 cessation of hostilities was agreed on May 15, yet Israeli airstrikes on Hezbollah infrastructure persist, alongside military presence in buffer areas and forced displacement orders in southern villages. Lebanese officials insist on complete troop withdrawal before final agreements, while Israel links any pullback to verifiable security guarantees and Lebanese Armed Forces deployment south of the Litani River. These stalled negotiations and ongoing operations explain the market’s low implied probabilities for near-term resolution by late May or June 2026, with further diplomatic rounds scheduled for early June serving as the next potential catalyst.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Apr 16, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
Wolumen
$1,543,458Data zakończenia
Jun 30, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 16, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.Israeli and Lebanese delegations continue US-brokered talks in Washington aimed at implementing a ceasefire, advancing Hezbollah disarmament, securing full Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon, and addressing border demarcation along the Blue Line. A 45-day extension of the April 2026 cessation of hostilities was agreed on May 15, yet Israeli airstrikes on Hezbollah infrastructure persist, alongside military presence in buffer areas and forced displacement orders in southern villages. Lebanese officials insist on complete troop withdrawal before final agreements, while Israel links any pullback to verifiable security guarantees and Lebanese Armed Forces deployment south of the Litani River. These stalled negotiations and ongoing operations explain the market’s low implied probabilities for near-term resolution by late May or June 2026, with further diplomatic rounds scheduled for early June serving as the next potential catalyst.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Wolumen
$1,543,458Data zakończenia
Jun 30, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 16, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Israeli and Lebanese delegations continue US-brokered talks in Washington aimed at implementing a ceasefire, advancing Hezbollah disarmament, securing full Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon, and addressing border demarcation along the Blue Line. A 45-day extension of the April 2026 cessation of hostilities was agreed on May 15, yet Israeli airstrikes on Hezbollah infrastructure persist, alongside military presence in buffer areas and forced displacement orders in southern villages. Lebanese officials insist on complete troop withdrawal before final agreements, while Israel links any pullback to verifiable security guarantees and Lebanese Armed Forces deployment south of the Litani River. These stalled negotiations and ongoing operations explain the market’s low implied probabilities for near-term resolution by late May or June 2026, with further diplomatic rounds scheduled for early June serving as the next potential catalyst.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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