Current market-implied odds of 73% against a natural disaster in 2026 reflect stable global conditions through mid-May, with neutral ENSO patterns and no elevated alerts from NOAA or USGS exceeding historical baselines. Recent atmospheric observations show typical sea surface temperatures and wind shear that reduce the likelihood of rapid intensification for tropical systems, while seismic monitoring indicates average activity levels without significant fault stress buildup in high-risk zones. Model consensus from seasonal forecasts points to standard patterns rather than anomalous events meeting common thresholds such as category 3+ hurricanes or magnitude 7+ quakes. Key upcoming data releases on summer climate indices could still shift these probabilities before year-end.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoNatural Disaster in 2026?
Natural Disaster in 2026?
$218,251 Wol.
$218,251 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
$218,251 Wol.
$218,251 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Current market-implied odds of 73% against a natural disaster in 2026 reflect stable global conditions through mid-May, with neutral ENSO patterns and no elevated alerts from NOAA or USGS exceeding historical baselines. Recent atmospheric observations show typical sea surface temperatures and wind shear that reduce the likelihood of rapid intensification for tropical systems, while seismic monitoring indicates average activity levels without significant fault stress buildup in high-risk zones. Model consensus from seasonal forecasts points to standard patterns rather than anomalous events meeting common thresholds such as category 3+ hurricanes or magnitude 7+ quakes. Key upcoming data releases on summer climate indices could still shift these probabilities before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Rynek otwarty: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Wolumen
$218,251Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Current market-implied odds of 73% against a natural disaster in 2026 reflect stable global conditions through mid-May, with neutral ENSO patterns and no elevated alerts from NOAA or USGS exceeding historical baselines. Recent atmospheric observations show typical sea surface temperatures and wind shear that reduce the likelihood of rapid intensification for tropical systems, while seismic monitoring indicates average activity levels without significant fault stress buildup in high-risk zones. Model consensus from seasonal forecasts points to standard patterns rather than anomalous events meeting common thresholds such as category 3+ hurricanes or magnitude 7+ quakes. Key upcoming data releases on summer climate indices could still shift these probabilities before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Wolumen
$218,251Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Current market-implied odds of 73% against a natural disaster in 2026 reflect stable global conditions through mid-May, with neutral ENSO patterns and no elevated alerts from NOAA or USGS exceeding historical baselines. Recent atmospheric observations show typical sea surface temperatures and wind shear that reduce the likelihood of rapid intensification for tropical systems, while seismic monitoring indicates average activity levels without significant fault stress buildup in high-risk zones. Model consensus from seasonal forecasts points to standard patterns rather than anomalous events meeting common thresholds such as category 3+ hurricanes or magnitude 7+ quakes. Key upcoming data releases on summer climate indices could still shift these probabilities before year-end.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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