**Recent polling shows A Just Russia (SR) hovering near the 5% threshold for Duma party-list seats, producing the 58% trader-implied probability it clears.** Government-linked surveys from early-to-mid September place the party at 4–6% (VTsIOM, calling the position “unstable”) or 6–7% (FOM), while independent polling such as ExtremeScan registers 4–5.9% among decided voters, sometimes falling short depending on turnout and modeling assumptions. SR completed candidate registration in July after its July congress and has emphasized pro-war messaging and veteran support under leader Sergey Mironov. With Yabloko excluded from the ballot, some votes may redistribute among registered parties, though SR remains the most marginal of the systemic options. The narrow gap between forecasts and the Kremlin’s interest in maintaining a predictable multi-party Duma explain why traders assign a modest edge to clearance rather than a decisive outcome. Voting occurs 18–20 September, with final results expected shortly afterward.