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icon for Will the French Socialist primary be won outright in the first round?
Polityka·Francja

Will the French Socialist primary be won outright in the first round?

icon for Will the French Socialist primary be won outright in the first round?
Polityka·Francja

Will the French Socialist primary be won outright in the first round?

56% szansa
Polymarket
NOWE
56% szansa
Polymarket
NOWE
The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is holding a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections. The first round is scheduled to be held on October 9-10, 2026, and the second round on October 16-17, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if a candidate wins the French Socialist primary outright in the first round, such that no second round is held. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A candidate wins outright if they receive more than 50% of the votes cast in the first round, or if the organizers of the primary otherwise declare them the winner of the primary without a second round being held. If the primary is cancelled, the first round does not take place, or the results thereof are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.The closely contested 54.5% implied probability for an outright first-round victory in the October 9–10 Socialist primary reflects a fragmented field of seven candidates, including Olivier Faure, Raphaël Glucksmann, Philippe Brun, Jérôme Guedj, Ségolène Royal, Emmanuel Maurel, and Fabien Verdier. Internal divisions over the closed primary format—decided by militants in July—have limited consolidation, while scheduled debates and the September 15 parrainage deadline keep vote shares fluid among PS members and Place Publique allies. Recent candidate announcements and electronic voting mechanics further disperse support, leaving room for a runoff unless one contender secures rapid endorsements or strong debate momentum to exceed 50%.

The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is holding a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections. The first round is scheduled to be held on October 9-10, 2026, and the second round on October 16-17, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a candidate wins the French Socialist primary outright in the first round, such that no second round is held. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

A candidate wins outright if they receive more than 50% of the votes cast in the first round, or if the organizers of the primary otherwise declare them the winner of the primary without a second round being held.

If the primary is cancelled, the first round does not take place, or the results thereof are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is holding a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections. The first round is scheduled to be held on October 9-10, 2026, and the second round on October 16-17, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if a candidate wins the French Socialist primary outright in the first round, such that no second round is held. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A candidate wins outright if they receive more than 50% of the votes cast in the first round, or if the organizers of the primary otherwise declare them the winner of the primary without a second round being held. If the primary is cancelled, the first round does not take place, or the results thereof are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.
Wolumen
$0
Data zakończenia
Oct 10, 2026
Rynek otwarty
Sep 9, 2026, 6:30 PM ET

Rozstrzygający

0x65070BE91...
The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is holding a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections. The first round is scheduled to be held on October 9-10, 2026, and the second round on October 16-17, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if a candidate wins the French Socialist primary outright in the first round, such that no second round is held. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A candidate wins outright if they receive more than 50% of the votes cast in the first round, or if the organizers of the primary otherwise declare them the winner of the primary without a second round being held. If the primary is cancelled, the first round does not take place, or the results thereof are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.The closely contested 54.5% implied probability for an outright first-round victory in the October 9–10 Socialist primary reflects a fragmented field of seven candidates, including Olivier Faure, Raphaël Glucksmann, Philippe Brun, Jérôme Guedj, Ségolène Royal, Emmanuel Maurel, and Fabien Verdier. Internal divisions over the closed primary format—decided by militants in July—have limited consolidation, while scheduled debates and the September 15 parrainage deadline keep vote shares fluid among PS members and Place Publique allies. Recent candidate announcements and electronic voting mechanics further disperse support, leaving room for a runoff unless one contender secures rapid endorsements or strong debate momentum to exceed 50%.

The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is holding a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections. The first round is scheduled to be held on October 9-10, 2026, and the second round on October 16-17, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a candidate wins the French Socialist primary outright in the first round, such that no second round is held. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

A candidate wins outright if they receive more than 50% of the votes cast in the first round, or if the organizers of the primary otherwise declare them the winner of the primary without a second round being held.

If the primary is cancelled, the first round does not take place, or the results thereof are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is holding a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections. The first round is scheduled to be held on October 9-10, 2026, and the second round on October 16-17, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if a candidate wins the French Socialist primary outright in the first round, such that no second round is held. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A candidate wins outright if they receive more than 50% of the votes cast in the first round, or if the organizers of the primary otherwise declare them the winner of the primary without a second round being held. If the primary is cancelled, the first round does not take place, or the results thereof are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.
Wolumen
$0
Data zakończenia
Oct 10, 2026
Rynek otwarty
Sep 9, 2026, 6:30 PM ET

Rozstrzygający

0x65070BE91...

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Często zadawane pytania

"Will the French Socialist primary be won outright in the first round?" to rynek prognoz na Polymarket, gdzie traderzy kupują i sprzedają udziały "Tak" lub "Nie" w zależności od tego, czy wierzą, że to wydarzenie nastąpi. Obecne zbiorowe prawdopodobieństwo to 56% na "Yes". Na przykład, jeśli "Tak" kosztuje 56¢, rynek zbiorowo przypisuje 56% szansy na to, że to wydarzenie nastąpi. Te kursy zmieniają się ciągle, gdy traderzy reagują na nowe informacje i wydarzenia. Udziały w poprawnym wyniku można wymienić na $1 za sztukę po rozstrzygnięciu rynku.

"Will the French Socialist primary be won outright in the first round?" to nowo utworzony rynek na Polymarket, uruchomiony Sep 9, 2026. Jako wczesny rynek, to Twoja okazja, aby być jednym z pierwszych traderów, którzy ustalą kursy i określą początkowe sygnały cenowe rynku. Możesz też dodać tę stronę do zakładek, aby śledzić wolumen i aktywność handlową w miarę rozwoju rynku.

Aby handlować na "Will the French Socialist primary be won outright in the first round?", wybierz, czy uważasz, że odpowiedź to "Tak" czy "Nie". Każda strona ma bieżącą cenę odzwierciedlającą implikowane prawdopodobieństwo rynku. Wpisz kwotę i kliknij "Handluj". Jeśli kupisz udziały "Tak" i wynik okaże się "Tak", każdy udział wypłaci $1. Jeśli okaże się "Nie", Twoje udziały "Tak" wypłacą $0. Możesz też sprzedać swoje udziały w dowolnym momencie przed rozstrzygnięciem, jeśli chcesz zrealizować zysk lub ograniczyć stratę.

Obecne prawdopodobieństwo dla "Will the French Socialist primary be won outright in the first round?" to 56% na "Yes". Oznacza to, że społeczność Polymarket uważa, że istnieje 56% szansy na to, że to wydarzenie nastąpi. Te kursy aktualizują się w czasie rzeczywistym na podstawie rzeczywistych transakcji, dostarczając ciągle aktualizowany sygnał tego, czego rynek oczekuje.

Zasady rozstrzygania "Will the French Socialist primary be won outright in the first round?" określają dokładnie, co musi się wydarzyć, aby każdy wynik został ogłoszony zwycięzcą — w tym oficjalne źródła danych używane do ustalenia wyniku. Możesz przejrzeć pełne kryteria rozstrzygania w sekcji "Zasady" na tej stronie nad komentarzami. Zalecamy dokładne zapoznanie się z zasadami przed handlem, ponieważ określają one precyzyjne warunki, przypadki graniczne i źródła regulujące rozstrzyganie tego rynku.