Recent U.S. Drought Monitor data valid through mid-September 2026 show exceptional (D4) drought persisting across multiple western and southern states, including substantial portions of Colorado, New Mexico, Idaho, Texas, Arkansas, Mississippi, Nebraska, and Nevada, driven by the contiguous United States’ record-warm June–August period and widespread precipitation deficits. This established pattern of severe, multi-month dryness underpins the 94% market-implied probability for 10 or more states in D4 during the week of September 22. The next weekly USDM update, incorporating any late-September rainfall or continued dry conditions, will determine final resolution; modest improvements in one or two states from targeted precipitation could reduce the count below 10, though current model consensus and soil-moisture trends make such rapid widespread relief unlikely.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHow many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of September 22, 2026?
How many states will be in D4 (Exceptional Drought) — week of September 22, 2026?
10 or more states 94%
7-9 states 5%
1-2 states 3.0%
3-4 states 3.0%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 24, 2026
0 states
1%
1-2 states
3%
3-4 states
3%
5-6 states
3%
7-9 states
5%
10 or more states
94%
10 or more states 94%
7-9 states 5%
1-2 states 3.0%
3-4 states 3.0%
NOWE
NOWE
Sep 24, 2026
0 states
$25 Wol.
1%
1-2 states
$0 Wol.
3%
3-4 states
$0 Wol.
3%
5-6 states
$0 Wol.
3%
7-9 states
$0 Wol.
5%
10 or more states
$0 Wol.
94%
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 22, 2026.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
If the US Drought Monitor has not been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the scheduled publication date, this market will resolve to the "0 states" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.Recent U.S. Drought Monitor data valid through mid-September 2026 show exceptional (D4) drought persisting across multiple western and southern states, including substantial portions of Colorado, New Mexico, Idaho, Texas, Arkansas, Mississippi, Nebraska, and Nevada, driven by the contiguous United States’ record-warm June–August period and widespread precipitation deficits. This established pattern of severe, multi-month dryness underpins the 94% market-implied probability for 10 or more states in D4 during the week of September 22. The next weekly USDM update, incorporating any late-September rainfall or continued dry conditions, will determine final resolution; modest improvements in one or two states from targeted precipitation could reduce the count below 10, though current model consensus and soil-moisture trends make such rapid widespread relief unlikely.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 22, 2026.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
If the US Drought Monitor has not been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the scheduled publication date, this market will resolve to the "0 states" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
If the US Drought Monitor has not been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the scheduled publication date, this market will resolve to the "0 states" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Rynek otwarty: Sep 17, 2026, 9:00 AM ET
Wolumen
$25Data zakończenia
Sep 24, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 17, 2026, 9:00 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DmData/DataTables.aspxRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 22, 2026.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
If the US Drought Monitor has not been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the scheduled publication date, this market will resolve to the "0 states" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.Recent U.S. Drought Monitor data valid through mid-September 2026 show exceptional (D4) drought persisting across multiple western and southern states, including substantial portions of Colorado, New Mexico, Idaho, Texas, Arkansas, Mississippi, Nebraska, and Nevada, driven by the contiguous United States’ record-warm June–August period and widespread precipitation deficits. This established pattern of severe, multi-month dryness underpins the 94% market-implied probability for 10 or more states in D4 during the week of September 22. The next weekly USDM update, incorporating any late-September rainfall or continued dry conditions, will determine final resolution; modest improvements in one or two states from targeted precipitation could reduce the count below 10, though current model consensus and soil-moisture trends make such rapid widespread relief unlikely.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 22, 2026.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
If the US Drought Monitor has not been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the scheduled publication date, this market will resolve to the "0 states" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".
The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
If the US Drought Monitor has not been published by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the scheduled publication date, this market will resolve to the "0 states" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Wolumen
$25Data zakończenia
Sep 24, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 17, 2026, 9:00 AM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DmData/DataTables.aspxRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Recent U.S. Drought Monitor data valid through mid-September 2026 show exceptional (D4) drought persisting across multiple western and southern states, including substantial portions of Colorado, New Mexico, Idaho, Texas, Arkansas, Mississippi, Nebraska, and Nevada, driven by the contiguous United States’ record-warm June–August period and widespread precipitation deficits. This established pattern of severe, multi-month dryness underpins the 94% market-implied probability for 10 or more states in D4 during the week of September 22. The next weekly USDM update, incorporating any late-September rainfall or continued dry conditions, will determine final resolution; modest improvements in one or two states from targeted precipitation could reduce the count below 10, though current model consensus and soil-moisture trends make such rapid widespread relief unlikely.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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