Ongoing negotiations between the Trump administration and Iran over a new nuclear framework drive the 60% implied probability for a deal before 2027. In early May 2026, U.S. officials advanced a one-page memorandum proposal that would commit Tehran to a moratorium on enrichment above 3.67 percent, lift sanctions, and ease restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz following months of military strikes and protests inside Iran. Tehran rejected initial terms but signaled readiness for a counteroffer through Omani mediators, while President Trump described the latest Iranian response as unacceptable and issued renewed ultimatums tied to halting nuclear activity. These exchanges, building on resumed talks after February 2026 protests, reflect active diplomatic momentum balanced against persistent military tensions and unresolved uranium stockpile issues.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoTak
$1,332,686 Wol.
$1,332,686 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
Tak
$1,332,686 Wol.
$1,332,686 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Ongoing negotiations between the Trump administration and Iran over a new nuclear framework drive the 60% implied probability for a deal before 2027. In early May 2026, U.S. officials advanced a one-page memorandum proposal that would commit Tehran to a moratorium on enrichment above 3.67 percent, lift sanctions, and ease restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz following months of military strikes and protests inside Iran. Tehran rejected initial terms but signaled readiness for a counteroffer through Omani mediators, while President Trump described the latest Iranian response as unacceptable and issued renewed ultimatums tied to halting nuclear activity. These exchanges, building on resumed talks after February 2026 protests, reflect active diplomatic momentum balanced against persistent military tensions and unresolved uranium stockpile issues.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Rynek otwarty: Nov 5, 2025, 11:47 AM ET
Wolumen
$1,332,686Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Nov 5, 2025, 11:47 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Ongoing negotiations between the Trump administration and Iran over a new nuclear framework drive the 60% implied probability for a deal before 2027. In early May 2026, U.S. officials advanced a one-page memorandum proposal that would commit Tehran to a moratorium on enrichment above 3.67 percent, lift sanctions, and ease restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz following months of military strikes and protests inside Iran. Tehran rejected initial terms but signaled readiness for a counteroffer through Omani mediators, while President Trump described the latest Iranian response as unacceptable and issued renewed ultimatums tied to halting nuclear activity. These exchanges, building on resumed talks after February 2026 protests, reflect active diplomatic momentum balanced against persistent military tensions and unresolved uranium stockpile issues.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Wolumen
$1,332,686Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Nov 5, 2025, 11:47 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing negotiations between the Trump administration and Iran over a new nuclear framework drive the 60% implied probability for a deal before 2027. In early May 2026, U.S. officials advanced a one-page memorandum proposal that would commit Tehran to a moratorium on enrichment above 3.67 percent, lift sanctions, and ease restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz following months of military strikes and protests inside Iran. Tehran rejected initial terms but signaled readiness for a counteroffer through Omani mediators, while President Trump described the latest Iranian response as unacceptable and issued renewed ultimatums tied to halting nuclear activity. These exchanges, building on resumed talks after February 2026 protests, reflect active diplomatic momentum balanced against persistent military tensions and unresolved uranium stockpile issues.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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