Latest poll shows the opposition bloc still ahead but with a narrower margin;

Gadi Eizenkot rises to 12%3%

Eizenkot’s Yashar party now polling at ~8%, keeping his

Lapid's market probability falls to historic low amid Netanyahu's strong campaign

Yair Lapid dips to 1%1%

As Netanyahu's campaign gained momentum and Lapid struggled to present a compelling alternative, market confidence in Lapid's chances to become Prime Minister reached a new low.

Political analysts report that despite the recent surge, Lieberman’s chances remain slim due to Netanyahu’s strong coalition-building and Lieberman’s isolation from major parties,

Avigdor Lieberman dips to 6%2%

Political analysts report that despite the recent surge, Lieberman’s chances remain slim due to Netanyahu’s strong coalition-building and Lieberman’s isolation from major parties, causing a quick market correction downward

Polls show a slight surge in Yisrael Beiteinu support to about 8-9 seats amid growing public approval of Lieberman’s hardline security stance post-October 7, 2023 events, briefly

Avigdor Lieberman jumps to 8%7%

Polls show a slight surge in Yisrael Beiteinu support to about 8-9 seats amid growing public approval of Lieberman’s hardline security stance post-October 7, 2023 events, briefly boosting market

Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid announce merger of their parties into "Together, Led by Bennett" to challenge Netanyahu in upcoming elections

Naftali Bennett jumps to 35%11%

This significant political alliance consolidated opposition forces, boosting Bennett's chances and causing a notable

Official announcement of the “Together – Led by Bennett” alliance without Eizenkot’s party;

Gadi Eizenkot dips to 9%4%

market interprets his exclusion as a major setback

Opposition parties Bennett and Lapid form a joint alliance “Together,” consolidating anti-Netanyahu votes and sidelining Sa’ar

Gideon Sa’ar dips to 0%1%

The alliance of major opposition figures further marginalized Sa’ar’s prospects, keeping his market

Lapid and Naftali Bennett announce party merger ahead of elections

The merger of Lapid's Yesh Atid with former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett's party was seen as a strategic move to strengthen the centrist bloc, but it failed to significantly improve Lapid's market odds.

Political landscape solidifies around Netanyahu and opposition coalitions, with no indication Cohen will enter the race

Yossi Cohen dips to 0%1%

As the election approaches, major political players and coalitions have formed without Cohen’s participation, leading the market to.

Bennett and Lapid launch “Together” party, merging their lists

Yair Lapid dips to 1%2%

The Jerusalem Post covered the joint press conference in Herzliya on 26 April 2026 where Bennett and Lapid announced the new “Together” party. While the merger aimed to consolidate the anti‑Netanyahu bloc, analysts noted that Lapid’s personal leadership prospects were further diluted, nudging his.

Lapid announces he will not run for prime minister in the upcoming election, opting to remain opposition leader

Yair Lapid dips to 1%1%

The explicit decision to step aside confirmed market expectations that another candidate would become prime minister, cementing Lapid’s near‑zero odds.

Katz publicly states Israel is “prepared to renew the war against Iran” and is waiting for a U.S.

Israel Katz dips to 1%1%

green light, repeating the same message across several outlets (Jerusalem Post, Pravda USA, Naharnet)

Katz joins IDF generals and Culture Minister Miki Zohar in lifting COVID‑related restrictions in northern Israel, a routine domestic move that briefly softened his war‑minister

Israel Katz rises to 2%1%

Katz joins IDF generals and Culture Minister Miki Zohar in lifting COVID‑related restrictions in northern Israel, a routine domestic move that briefly softened his war‑minister image

Eizenkot’s Yashar party declines an invitation to formally join the “Together” list, citing policy differences;

Gadi Eizenkot drops to 13%5%

analysts predict the bloc will lose cohesion, pulling his

Eizenkot proposes a unified “center bloc” list with Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, aiming for 30‑40 seats;

Gadi Eizenkot jumps to 13%8%

pollsters briefly lift his odds as the alliance gains traction

Cohen’s memoirs and public appearances emphasize intelligence career but do not translate into political momentum

Despite Cohen’s memoir publication and media presence highlighting his Mossad achievements, he did not gain significant political traction or endorsements, keeping his market.

Benny Gantz attacks Lapid in a televised debate, accusing him of “political opportunism” and refusing to join any coalition with him

Yair Lapid rises to 2%2%

The high‑profile clash further eroded Lapid’s credibility as a coalition partner, nudging the

Polls show Gideon Sa’ar at about 2%, far behind Netanyahu and Bennett

Gideon Sa’ar dips to 0%1%

Polling data confirmed Sa’ar’s marginal position in the race, solidifying the market’s near-zero valuation of his chances.

Lapid calls on Bennett and Eisenkot to meet behind closed doors

Yair Lapid rises to 3%2%

A Times of Israel live‑blog on 16 February 2026 reported Lapid urging rival opposition leaders to negotiate privately, hinting at possible realignment and briefly lifting his odds .

Minor recovery in Lapid's market

Yair Lapid rises to 3%3%

Discussions among opposition parties about uniting against Netanyahu briefly revived hopes for Lapid's leadership, causing a small uptick in market probability.

Lapid warns “liberal bloc” must unite or lose the election

Yair Lapid dips to 1%1%

In a televised address on 16 January 2026, Lapid cautioned that the centrist opposition would be defeated without a unified front, underscoring internal fragmentation and pushing his market.

Opposition leaders Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid announce alliance for 2026 elections, consolidating right-wing and centrist opposition

The formation of the "Together" party by Bennett and Lapid in early 2026 further marginalized Cohen’s chances, as major opposition forces united behind other candidates.

Bennett publicly withdraws from the joint list, citing “strategic differences” and re‑launches New Hope as a separate party

Yair Lapid drops to 0%7%

The breakup removed the coalition advantage Lapid had hoped for, sending his market

Lapid's political influence hits a low amid rising Netanyahu dominance

Yair Lapid dips to 0%2%

As Benjamin Netanyahu consolidated power and opposition parties fragmented, Lapid's chances of becoming Prime Minister diminished to near zero, with polls and political commentary underscoring Netanyahu's dominance.

Netanyahu’s government faces mounting pressure amid political turmoil and trial, diminishing prospects for Cohen’s rise

Yossi Cohen dips to 1%2%

As Netanyahu’s coalition struggles with internal dissent and legal challenges, speculation about successors like Cohen waned, with political focus shifting to other figures and alliances, reducing Cohen’s perceived viability.

Poll finds Lapid’s Yesh Atid steady at nine seats but still far behind Likud

Yair Lapid dips to 6%3%

A Haaretz poll on 12 December 2025 showed Lapid’s party holding nine seats, unchanged but still well below Likud, reinforcing the market’s low confidence in his chances .

Yesh Atid poll slip to 7 % in nationwide survey, its lowest since 2013

Yair Lapid plunges to 7%23%

The poll showed the new joint list trailing the left‑wing bloc, prompting investors to cut Lapid’s probability sharply.

Setbacks in coalition talks cause renewed decline in Lapid's prospects

Yair Lapid drops to 4%5%

Failed negotiations and public disagreements with potential coalition partners led to a rapid loss of confidence in Lapid's ability to secure a governing majority, reflected in the market

Lieberman publicly reiterates refusal to join any coalition including ultra-Orthodox parties, limiting his potential as a kingmaker or prime minister candidate, dampening market

Lieberman publicly reiterates refusal to join any coalition including ultra-Orthodox parties, limiting his potential as a kingmaker or prime minister candidate, dampening market optimism

Lapid's brief resurgence after coalition talks with centrist and right-wing parties

Yair Lapid rises to 9%4%

Reports emerged of Lapid engaging in coalition negotiations with centrist and right-wing factions, briefly boosting market confidence in his potential to form a government, though this optimism was short-lived due to subsequent setbacks.

Lapid and Bennett announce they will merge Yesh Atid and New Hope into a single centrist‑right list for the 2026 election

Yair Lapid plunges to 30%20%

The merger was presented as a “unity front” against Netanyahu, but analysts warned it would dilute Lapid’s brand and hurt his personal odds.

Avigdor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu party suffers major losses in preliminary polls for the 2026 election, dropping from 15 seats to around 5-6 seats, signaling reduced political

Avigdor Lieberman plunges to 1%48%

Avigdor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu party suffers major losses in preliminary polls for the 2026 election, dropping from 15 seats to around 5-6 seats, signaling reduced political influence and coalition leverage

Yair Lapid faces declining public support amid coalition instability

Yair Lapid plunges to 7%43%

Following the formation of a fragile coalition government, Lapid's public support sharply dropped as political analysts and polls indicated weakening prospects for his party to lead the next government, reflecting concerns about coalition durability and his leadership strength.

Former Mossad chief Yossi Cohen publicly signals ambition to be Prime Minister but clarifies he will not run in the next election

Yossi Cohen plunges to 3%46%

Cohen made headlines in November 2025 by stating that "for real change to happen, I need to be prime minister," but shortly thereafter clarified he would not be running in the upcoming election, causing a sharp drop in market confidence in his candidacy.

Naftali Bennett holds "Lessons in Leadership" event highlighting his premiership achievements and political vision

This event reinforced Bennett's public profile and leadership credentials, initially supporting his market position.

Market opens with Gideon Sa’ar at 49% but quickly falls after no major campaign or leadership moves

Gideon Sa’ar plunges to 1%48%

Initial optimism about Sa’ar’s chances faded rapidly as he did not emerge as a leading candidate, reflected in the market’s quick

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu receives a public boost from former U.S.

Benjamin Netanyahu rises to 51%2%

President Donald Trump during a visit to Israel, energizing his reelection campaign despite ongoing corruption trials

Poll shows Yesh Atid collapsing to 5 seats, Lapid’s odds plunge

Yair Lapid plunges to 6%44%

A Times of Israel poll released in early November 2025 reported Yesh Atid slipping to just five Knesset seats, its lowest showing, while rival opposition parties surged. The shock‑drop in Lapid’s projected support drove the market’s biggest single‑day fall .

Gantz threatens to resign again unless a comprehensive Gaza post‑war plan is approved, reinforcing perceptions that he will not be part of the next sworn‑in government and keeping

Gantz threatens to resign again unless a comprehensive Gaza post‑war plan is approved, reinforcing perceptions that he will not be part of the next sworn‑in government and keeping his

Viral social media rumors falsely claim Yariv Levin appointed interim Prime Minister amid Netanyahu death rumors

Yariv Levin rises to 2%1%

A viral but false claim about Levin becoming interim PM briefly increased speculation about his leadership prospects, though it was not official.

Gideon Sa’ar agrees to dissolve New Hope faction and merge into Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party

This merger ended Sa’ar’s independent party status and signaled his reduced role as a separate contender for Prime Minister, causing a sharp drop in market confidence.

Levin initiates proceedings to fire Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara, escalating judicial conflict

Yariv Levin rises to 1%1%

Levin’s move against the Attorney General was seen as an assault on rule of law, further polarizing politics and diminishing his electability.

Gantz publicly calls for early elections in September 2025, further distancing himself from any near‑term prime‑minister appointment and cementing the market’s view that his odds

Gantz publicly calls for early elections in September 2025, further distancing himself from any near‑term prime‑minister appointment and cementing the market’s view that his odds are negligible

Supreme Court President Yitzhak Amit sworn in despite Levin’s boycott, marking constitutional crisis

Yariv Levin dips to 0%1%

Levin refused to acknowledge the new Supreme Court President, boycotted the inauguration, deepening a constitutional crisis and undermining his political standing.

Yariv Levin inherits three additional ministerial portfolios, consolidating power

Yariv Levin plunges to 1%48%

Levin was assigned multiple key ministries, including Justice, Interior, and Religious Services, increasing his influence but also associating him with controversial judicial reforms that sparked public backlash and reduced market confidence in his premiership chances.

National Unity (led by Gantz) submits a bill to dissolve the 25th Knesset and call early elections, signalling a move toward a caretaker administration and removing Gantz from the

Benny Gantz dips to 0%1%

National Unity (led by Gantz) submits a bill to dissolve the 25th Knesset and call early elections, signalling a move toward a caretaker administration and removing Gantz from the immediate succession picture

Yariv Levin demands legislation criminalizing Israeli calls for international sanctions against Israel

Levin wrote to the Attorney General demanding a law imposing harsh penalties on Israelis promoting sanctions against Israel, signaling his hardline stance and raising his profile as a potential PM candidate.

Gantz’s Blue‑and‑White party fails to assemble a majority coalition;

Benny Gantz dips to 1%2%

he informs President Rivlin he cannot form a government, effectively ending his chance to succeed Netanyahu in the current term