Gadi Eizenkot leads trader consensus for Israel's next prime minister after the October 2026 Knesset election due to his rising profile as leader of the new Yashar party and strong centrist-security appeal among voters seeking an alternative to the incumbent. Recent polling shows his support edging ahead of Naftali Bennett's Together alliance with Yair Lapid, bolstered by Eizenkot's former IDF chief role, personal losses in the Gaza conflict, and criticism of coalition governance. Benjamin Netanyahu remains close behind, backed by Likud's projected seat strength and right-wing bloc loyalty despite coalition strains over military exemptions and prolonged multi-front operations. Bennett's merger aims to consolidate anti-Netanyahu forces but has not yet produced decisive separation. The narrow gap reflects persistent opposition fragmentation, voter priorities on security and accountability, and the structural need for a 61-seat majority in coalition negotiations.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoPoll shows Gadi Eizenkot's Yashar party surpassing Likud for first time
Gadi Eizenkot rises to 42%4%
A new poll indicated that Gadi Eizenkot's Yashar party could become the largest party in the Knesset, surpassing Netanyahu's Likud, reflecting growing public support for Eizenkot as a centrist-security alternative and boosting his market price.
Polls show Gadi Eizenkot overtaking Naftali Bennett and matching Netanyahu
Gadi Eizenkot jumps to 40%6%
Recent polls indicate Gadi Eizenkot's Yashar party gaining ground, overtaking Bennett's alliance and matching Netanyahu's Likud, reflecting shifting voter preferences ahead of elections.
Benjamin Netanyahu Concludes Testimony in Long-Running Corruption Trial
Benjamin Netanyahu rises to 35%3%
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu concluded his testimony after 98 hearings, marking a major milestone in his graft trials as the proceedings prepare to move to the closing-arguments phase.
Benjamin Netanyahu reaffirms military freedom of action in Lebanon
Benjamin Netanyahu rises to 34%3%
Netanyahu's statement on June 22, 2026, reaffirming Israel's military stance in Lebanon, aimed to bolster his security credentials ahead of the election, stabilizing his market odds around 34%.
Poll shows majority of Israelis want Netanyahu to leave politics
Benjamin Netanyahu dips to 33%2%
A Channel 12 poll indicated that 59% of Israelis believe Netanyahu should not run again, reflecting growing public dissatisfaction and influencing market perceptions of his re-election chances.
Netanyahu faces voter backlash over interim U.S. Iran peace deal
Benjamin Netanyahu dips to 34%3%
The U.S. interim peace deal with Iran, seen as unfavorable by many Israelis, added to Netanyahu's political challenges ahead of the election, contributing to a decline in his market price and strengthening alternatives like Eizenkot and Bennett.
Gadi Eizenkot leads new Yashar party with centrist-security appeal
Gadi Eizenkot jumps to 37%9%
Eizenkot's formation of the Yashar party and his rising profile as a centrist-security alternative increased his market probability, reflecting growing voter interest in an alternative to Netanyahu and Bennett.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu holds press conference after US-Iran ceasefire deal
Benjamin Netanyahu dips to 30%4%
Netanyahu addressed the nation following a US-Iran ceasefire agreement, asserting Israel's security policies and readiness to maintain operations, reflecting his ongoing leadership role and influencing market confidence in his candidacy.
Gadi Eisenkot gains in polls as Netanyahu and Bennett falter after US-Iran MoU
Gadi Eizenkot jumps to 28%11%
Following the announcement of a US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding, Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party gained polling support, while Benjamin Netanyahu and Naftali Bennett saw declines. Eisenkot's rising profile as a centrist-security candidate boosted his market price, reflecting shifting voter preferences ahead of the election.
Interim US-Iran peace deal sparks anger in Israel, challenges Netanyahu's leadership
Benjamin Netanyahu drops to 34%6%
The announcement of a US-Iran ceasefire deal in June 2026 caused political backlash in Israel, with criticism directed at Prime Minister Netanyahu for perceived failures, contributing to a decline in his market price amid uncertainty.
Israel Defense Minister Israel Katz vows to maintain presence in southern Lebanon amid ceasefire
Defense Minister Israel Katz declared Israel would continue controlling a security zone in southern Lebanon despite a US-Iran ceasefire agreement, signaling a hardline stance that maintained his political relevance but did not significantly shift market prices.
Benjamin Netanyahu completes testimony in long-running corruption trial
Benjamin Netanyahu dips to 32%2%
Netanyahu concluded his testimony in his corruption trial, a milestone that maintained political uncertainty and affected his market support negatively.
Gadi Eizenkot launches new party 'Yashar' and gains political momentum
Gadi Eizenkot surges to 42%18%
Former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eizenkot founded the Yashar party, positioning himself as a centrist-security alternative to Netanyahu and Bennett, leading to a significant rise in his market odds as a potential next prime minister.
Market data shows Netanyahu leading as top candidate for next Prime Minister
Prediction markets indicate Benjamin Netanyahu as the frontrunner for the next Prime Minister, with Gadi Eizenkot and Naftali Bennett trailing, reflecting current political sentiment.
Gadi Eizenkot announces new party 'Yashar' and gains political momentum
Gadi Eizenkot jumps to 37%14%
Former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eizenkot founded the Yashar party, positioning himself as a centrist-security alternative to Netanyahu, leading to a significant rise in his market odds as a potential next prime minister.
IsraelVote bets point to Netanyahu victory ahead of next election
Benjamin Netanyahu dips to 33%1%
Betting markets on IsraelVote showed Netanyahu as the top candidate for prime minister with about 33% odds, followed by Gadi Eizenkot and Naftali Bennett with lower probabilities. This market positioning indicated continued confidence in Netanyahu's chances despite opposition efforts.
Netanyahu leads Polymarket wagers amid Swiss Brexit buzz and political uncertainty
Benjamin Netanyahu rises to 36%2%
Political uncertainty from international events like the Swiss referendum coincided with increased betting activity on Israel's next prime minister, with Netanyahu maintaining a market lead. This reflected ongoing market focus on coalition dynamics and Netanyahu's status as the frontrunner despite challenges.
Gilad Erdan considers forming new right-wing party ahead of elections
Gilad Erdan rises to 1%1%
Gilad Erdan expressed openness to forming a new right-wing party, signaling potential shifts in the political landscape, though his market odds remain low.
Swiss referendum triggers market volatility, Israel PM market activity rises
A Swiss referendum caused global market jitters, coinciding with increased betting activity on Israel's next prime minister, with Netanyahu maintaining a market lead amid broader geopolitical uncertainty.
Prediction markets show Netanyahu leading but with declining odds
Benjamin Netanyahu plunges to 36%17%
Political betting markets reflected Netanyahu as the leading candidate for prime minister but with declining odds, while Gadi Eizenkot and Naftali Bennett gained ground, indicating a competitive race ahead of the election.
Naftali Bennett sworn in as Israel’s Prime Minister after coalition government formed
Bennett was sworn in as Prime Minister following a narrow Knesset vote, briefly boosting his market odds as the official leader, though he later announced he would not run in the next election.
Naftali Bennett announces he will not run in upcoming elections
Naftali Bennett plunges to 14%15%
Bennett's decision not to run in the upcoming elections reduced his chances of becoming Prime Minister, reflected in a significant drop in his market price.
Benjamin Netanyahu confirms he will run in the upcoming 2026 election
Benjamin Netanyahu dips to 34%1%
Despite doubts raised by U.S. President Donald Trump and internal political challenges, Netanyahu's party announced he will seek re-election, stabilizing his market position but reflecting ongoing uncertainty about his electoral prospects.
Benjamin Netanyahu announces he will seek re-election
Netanyahu's formal announcement to run again solidified his position as the leading candidate for prime minister, reinforcing market confidence in his chances despite challenges.
Benjamin Netanyahu announces re-election bid amid health and political challenges
Despite health concerns and political opposition, Netanyahu declared his intention to seek re-election in 2026, maintaining his position as a leading candidate. This announcement stabilized his market probability amid ongoing political uncertainty.
Likud Confirms Benjamin Netanyahu Will Seek Re-Election
Benjamin Netanyahu drops to 32%6%
Following public doubts raised by Donald Trump, the Likud party officially announced that Benjamin Netanyahu will run for re-election in the upcoming national vote.
Benjamin Netanyahu announces intention to seek re-election amid US President Trump's doubts
Benjamin Netanyahu rises to 35%1%
Despite speculation about his political future, Benjamin Netanyahu confirmed he will run for re-election in 2026, stabilizing his market position amid ongoing security challenges and political controversies.
Polls show tight race between Netanyahu and Bennett-led opposition ahead of election
Recent polls indicate a closely contested election with Netanyahu's Likud and the Bennett-Lapid 'Together' alliance neck and neck. Market odds reflect this polarization, with Netanyahu and Gadi Eizenkot leading, and Bennett gaining support after forming the alliance.
Netanyahu confirms he will seek re-election despite health and political challenges
Benjamin Netanyahu jumps to 37%8%
Benjamin Netanyahu officially announced his intention to run in the upcoming election, reaffirming his position as a leading candidate despite health concerns and political opposition. This announcement stabilized his market position.
Benjamin Netanyahu confirms candidacy for Israel's 2026 elections
Netanyahu officially confirmed he will run in the October 2026 legislative elections, ending speculation about retirement and reinforcing his position as a leading candidate, which influenced market prices to maintain his significant probability.
Benjamin Netanyahu confirms intention to seek re-election in 2026
Benjamin Netanyahu rises to 35%4%
Despite doubts raised by U.S. President Donald Trump about Netanyahu's political future, Netanyahu's Likud party officially announced his candidacy for the 2026 election. This confirmation helped stabilize and slightly improve his market position as a leading contender for Prime Minister.
Benny Gantz resigns from Israel’s war cabinet over Gaza policy dispute
Benny Gantz dips to 1%2%
Benny Gantz resigned from the war cabinet citing disagreements with Netanyahu on Gaza strategy, weakening his political influence and market position.
Benjamin Netanyahu discusses Iran conflict and election prospects in CNBC interview
Benjamin Netanyahu rises to 36%2%
On June 3, 2026, Netanyahu gave an exclusive interview to CNBC discussing the ongoing conflict with Iran and his political future, reinforcing his image as a strong leader in security matters, which supported his market position.
Benjamin Netanyahu faces Israeli backlash over Lebanon strategy
Benjamin Netanyahu dips to 34%4%
Netanyahu faced criticism from hawkish voices in Israel for his cautious approach to Lebanon, impacting his political standing and contributing to fluctuations in his market odds.
Benjamin Netanyahu confirms candidacy for 2026 election amid ongoing conflicts
Netanyahu publicly confirmed he will run in the 2026 election, maintaining his status as the leading candidate despite political and military challenges, stabilizing his market odds.
Benjamin Netanyahu confirms he will run in 2026 election despite health concerns
Benjamin Netanyahu rises to 37%4%
Despite recent health issues and political challenges, Netanyahu confirmed his intention to seek re-election in 2026, maintaining his position as the leading candidate in the market.
Benjamin Netanyahu discusses Iran war and election strategy in CNBC interview
Benjamin Netanyahu dips to 35%4%
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu gave an interview to CNBC discussing the ongoing conflict with Iran and his election strategy, reinforcing his position as the leading candidate and influencing market prices.
Netanyahu confirms ongoing conflict with Iran in CNBC interview
Benjamin Netanyahu rises to 37%3%
Netanyahu's statements on the Iran conflict reinforced his image as a decisive leader in security matters, supporting his market position as the likely next Prime Minister.
Benny Gantz resigns from Israel’s emergency government over Gaza war dispute
Benny Gantz dips to 0%1%
Defense Minister Benny Gantz resigned from the war cabinet citing disagreements with Netanyahu on the Gaza conflict strategy, weakening his political influence and keeping his market odds low.
Knesset Speaker Amir Ohana leads large Israeli delegation at New York Israel Day Parade
Amir Ohana, Knesset Speaker, led a record-sized delegation at the Israel Day Parade in New York City, reinforcing his visibility and political stature, though this did not translate into a significant market price increase.
Supreme Court orders Netanyahu to explain why he hasn’t fired Ben‑Gvir
Itamar Ben Gvir rises to 1%1%
The Israeli Supreme Court ordered Netanyahu to justify why he had not dismissed Ben‑Gvir, intensifying scrutiny of the far‑right minister and dragging his market probability down from 1 % to 0 % for a short period before a modest rebound to 1 %.
Netanyahu and Foreign Minister Sa'ar publicly rebuke Ben-Gvir over flotilla video
Prime Minister Netanyahu and Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar condemned Ben-Gvir's video as damaging to Israel's values and international standing, signaling internal government tensions. This public rebuke contributed to market reassessment of Ben-Gvir's political viability and Netanyahu's reliance on far-right allies.
Gilad Erdan considers forming new right-wing party to challenge Netanyahu
Gilad Erdan rises to 1%1%
Gilad Erdan publicly stated he was exploring the creation of a new right-wing party as an alternative to Netanyahu's Likud, signaling potential shifts in the right-wing political landscape ahead of the election, though his market odds remained low.
Polls show Netanyahu faces tough re-election battle amid divisive government policies
Benjamin Netanyahu plunges to 45%16%
Polls indicated that Netanyahu's government was highly divisive and that he faced a challenging re-election campaign, with opposition leaders Bennett and Lapid forming a new party. This contributed to a decline in Netanyahu's market support and a rise for Bennett.
France bans Israeli Minister Ben-Gvir from its territory amid flotilla video outrage
Itamar Ben Gvir dips to 0%1%
Following international condemnation of Ben-Gvir's video humiliating detained Gaza flotilla activists, France banned him from entering its territory and called for EU sanctions. This diplomatic rebuke underscored the political cost of Ben-Gvir's actions, leading to a sharp drop in his market odds.
France Bans National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir Over Flotilla Video
France banned Itamar Ben-Gvir from its territory following international outrage over a video showing him taunting detained Gaza flotilla activists, drawing rebukes from Netanyahu.
Amir Ohana leads record-sized delegation at Israel Day Parade in New York
Knesset Speaker Amir Ohana's prominent public appearance at a major international event increased his visibility and political stature, though it did not significantly affect his market odds for prime ministership.
France Bans Itamar Ben-Gvir Over Gaza Flotilla Detainee Abuse Video
France officially barred Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir from entering its territory following the release of a video showing him humiliating detained French and European activists. The incident drew rare public condemnation from Prime Minister Netanyahu.
France bans Israeli Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir from entering the country over flotilla detainee video
Itamar Ben Gvir dips to 0%1%
Following the international backlash over Ben-Gvir's video, France officially banned him from entering its territory and called for EU sanctions, further isolating him diplomatically and negatively impacting his market prospects.
Prime Minister Netanyahu criticizes Minister Ben Gvir over flotilla video
Itamar Ben Gvir dips to 1%3%
Following the controversy over the flotilla activists video, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu publicly criticized Itamar Ben Gvir's conduct as not reflecting Israeli values, signaling internal government tensions and affecting political dynamics. This contributed to a decline in Ben Gvir's market support and highlighted divisions within the ruling coalition.
Itamar Ben-Gvir posts video abusing humanitarian flotilla detainees
Itamar Ben Gvir dips to 1%1%
Ben-Gvir's publicized actions of humiliating detained activists drew international condemnation, damaging his political prospects and causing his market price to remain very low.
Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir posts controversial video of Gaza flotilla activists
Itamar Ben Gvir dips to 1%3%
Itamar Ben Gvir released a video showing detained Gaza-bound flotilla activists kneeling with hands tied, provoking international condemnation and criticism from Israeli leaders including Prime Minister Netanyahu and Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar. This incident damaged Ben Gvir's public image and market support, reflected in his price decline to 1%.
Itamar Ben-Gvir banned from entering France over flotilla detainee video
Itamar Ben Gvir dips to 1%2%
Far-right Israeli Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir was banned from France following international condemnation of his treatment of detained flotilla activists, negatively affecting his market odds as a Prime Minister candidate.
Israeli lawmakers advance bill to dissolve Knesset, triggering early elections
The Knesset voted overwhelmingly to advance a bill to dissolve itself, potentially moving the election date earlier than the scheduled October 27, 2026. This political development increased uncertainty and influenced market odds for the prime ministership.
Israel's Parliament Approves Preliminary Bill to Dissolve Itself
Benjamin Netanyahu drops to 36%8%
The Knesset approved a bill to dissolve itself, threatening to bring the national election forward and increasing political uncertainty for the ruling coalition.
Itamar Ben-Gvir posts controversial video mocking detained Gaza flotilla activists
Itamar Ben Gvir dips to 1%1%
Ben-Gvir's video showing detained activists being mistreated sparked international outrage and led to entry bans by France and Poland, damaging his political standing and causing a minor market decline for his candidacy.
Naftali Bennett proposes national hasbara authority to fix Israel's PR crisis
Naftali Bennett plunges to 17%24%
Naftali Bennett criticized Ben-Gvir's social media antics harming Israel's international image and proposed a comprehensive plan to improve Israel's public diplomacy. This move aimed to rehabilitate Bennett's political standing and contrast with Ben-Gvir's controversial behavior, influencing market perceptions of their electoral prospects.
Israeli parliament votes to dissolve itself, paving way for early elections
The Knesset's vote to dissolve itself increased the likelihood of early elections, causing market uncertainty and affecting odds for all candidates, particularly Netanyahu and Bennett.
Netanyahu urges massive war with Lebanon after Hezbollah drone attack
Benjamin Netanyahu drops to 34%10%
Netanyahu’s public call for a “massive war” with Lebanon after a Hezbollah drone strike, coupled with speculation about an Iran‑US‑Israel coordination, led to a sharp decline in his market price from 44 % to 34 % as voters feared heightened conflict.
Itamar Ben-Gvir posts video showing detained flotilla activists abused
Itamar Ben Gvir dips to 1%1%
Ben-Gvir's video showing abuse of detained activists caused international outrage and political backlash, leading to a decline in his market probability due to negative publicity and diplomatic fallout.
France bans Israeli Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir over treatment of Gaza flotilla activists
Itamar Ben Gvir dips to 1%1%
France imposed a travel ban on Itamar Ben-Gvir following his controversial video mocking detained Gaza flotilla activists, causing international diplomatic fallout and damaging his political standing, reflected in his low market odds.
Israeli parliament advances bill to dissolve itself, triggering early elections
The Knesset approved a bill to dissolve itself, potentially bringing forward elections before the scheduled October 27 date, increasing political uncertainty and impacting market prices for prime ministerial candidates.
Benny Gantz threatens to quit government if no post-war Gaza plan is presented
Benny Gantz dips to 1%4%
Gantz's threat to resign over the lack of a post-war Gaza plan highlighted political tensions and contributed to his declining market odds.
Avigdor Lieberman expresses ambition to become prime minister
Avigdor Lieberman dips to 4%1%
Lieberman publicly stated his goal to become prime minister, but his market probability remained low due to limited coalition prospects and competition from stronger candidates.
Israeli Naval Forces Intercept Gaza-Bound Global Sumud Flotilla
Itamar Ben Gvir dips to 0%1%
Israeli naval forces intercepted the Global Sumud Flotilla in international waters and detained hundreds of foreign activists. National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir sparked international outrage by posting a video taunting the bound detainees.
Itamar Ben Gvir posts controversial video taunting detained flotilla activists
Itamar Ben Gvir dips to 0%1%
National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir posted a video showing him taunting detained Gaza flotilla activists, sparking international condemnation and diplomatic backlash, which further diminished his market odds for becoming prime minister.
Yoaz Hendel launches The Reservists party focusing on universal conscription
Yoaz Hendel rises to 1%1%
Yoaz Hendel founded The Reservists party advocating for universal military conscription and stronger penalties for draft evasion, entering the 2026 election race and maintaining a small but stable market presence.
Naftali Bennett criticizes Itamar Ben-Gvir's flotilla video for harming Israel's international standing
Bennett publicly condemned Ben-Gvir's release of the controversial flotilla detainee video, framing it as damaging to Israel's global image and strengthening his campaign to fix Israel's propaganda efforts, impacting his political positioning positively.
Itamar Ben-Gvir posts videos taunting detained Gaza-bound flotilla activists
Itamar Ben Gvir plunges to 1%48%
Ben-Gvir released videos mocking detained activists from the Global Sumud Flotilla intercepted by Israeli forces, prompting international condemnation and criticism from Israeli officials including Prime Minister Netanyahu, damaging Ben-Gvir's political standing and market odds.
Itamar Ben-Gvir posts video taunting detained Gaza flotilla activists, sparking global condemnation
Itamar Ben Gvir dips to 1%3%
National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir posted a video showing detained Gaza flotilla activists in humiliating conditions, leading to international outrage and diplomatic protests from multiple countries. This incident caused a sharp decline in his market price due to reputational damage.
Poll Shows Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar Party Surging Past Bennett-Lapid Alliance
Gadi Eizenkot rises to 17%4%
A major poll showed Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party rocketing past Naftali Bennett's Together alliance, running neck-and-neck with Netanyahu's Likud and shifting the opposition leadership dynamics.
Gadi Eizenkot proposes unified electoral list with Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid
Gadi Eizenkot jumps to 22%5%
Former IDF Chief Gadi Eizenkot proposed a joint electoral list with Bennett and Lapid to form a large centrist bloc, boosting his political profile and market price as a leading opposition figure.
Lieberman unveils new security‑economic platform ahead of election
Avigdor Lieberman rises to 5%3%
Lieberman held a press conference in Tel Aviv announcing a new security‑economic platform ahead of the October election, raising his visibility and pushing his market price from 2 % to 5 % over a few days.
Netanyahu’s approval dips as US envoys push for Gaza ceasefire phase two
Benjamin Netanyahu dips to 39%4%
U.S. officials urging faster progress on the Gaza ceasefire highlighted frustrations with Netanyahu’s pace, contributing to a modest price decline.
Itamar Ben-Gvir posts controversial video referencing death penalty
Ben-Gvir posted a provocative video on social media referencing the death penalty for Palestinian detainees, sparking international outrage and further diminishing his political prospects.
Israeli security cabinet approves measures to strengthen West Bank control
Benjamin Netanyahu dips to 41%3%
Israel's security cabinet, including far-right Finance Minister Smotrich, approved measures to deepen control over the West Bank, reflecting Netanyahu's government's policies and affecting political dynamics.
Israeli strikes kill civilians in Gaza amid ceasefire tensions
Continued Israeli strikes in Gaza, despite the ceasefire, resulted in civilian casualties, highlighting ongoing conflict challenges under Netanyahu's leadership and affecting his market support.
Former ISA Chief Yoram Cohen Joins Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar Party
Gadi Eizenkot jumps to 13%5%
Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party gained significant momentum and right-wing credibility as former Shin Bet chief Yoram Cohen officially joined the faction.
US envoys urge Netanyahu to advance Gaza ceasefire second phase
Benjamin Netanyahu jumps to 44%6%
US envoys pressed Netanyahu to move forward with the second phase of the Gaza ceasefire, involving demilitarization and troop withdrawal, highlighting international pressure on his government and affecting his political outlook.
Gadi Eizenkot announces entry into politics with new party Yashar
Gadi Eizenkot rises to 5%3%
Former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eizenkot entered politics with the Yashar party, gaining rapid support as a centrist-security candidate, boosting his market odds significantly.
Israeli Minister Ben-Gvir celebrates birthday with noose-decorated cake
Itamar Ben Gvir plunges to 1%48%
Itamar Ben-Gvir's birthday party featured a cake with a noose symbolizing the controversial death penalty law for Palestinian abductees, attended by senior police and political figures. This event highlighted Ben-Gvir's divisive image and raised concerns about his influence over law enforcement, contributing to a decline in his market probability.
Trump and Netanyahu publicly differ on Israeli strike on Iranian gas field
Benjamin Netanyahu drops to 39%5%
A public disagreement between Trump and Netanyahu over an Israeli attack on Iran's gas field raised questions about their coordination, causing market uncertainty and a temporary dip in Netanyahu's probability.
Gadi Eizenkot announces formation of new party Yashar to challenge Netanyahu
Gadi Eizenkot jumps to 24%14%
Former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eizenkot founded the Yashar party, positioning himself as a centrist-security alternative to Netanyahu, which boosted his market odds significantly.
US envoys urge Netanyahu to advance Gaza ceasefire second phase
Benjamin Netanyahu rises to 41%3%
US envoys met with Netanyahu urging progress on the Gaza ceasefire's second phase, increasing pressure on his government to act, which influenced market perceptions of his leadership prospects.
Reservists party led by Hendel polls at 4‑5 % in latest survey
Yoaz Hendel rises to 1%1%
A Lazar‑Panel4All poll released at the end of April gave the newly formed “Reservists” party led by Yoaz Hendel a modest 4‑5 % of the vote, nudging his market price from 0 % to 1 %.
Naftali Bennett’s poll rebound after coalition talks with centrist parties
Naftali Bennett jumps to 41%13%
Bennett’s reported negotiations with centrist factions revived his prospects as a coalition partner, lifting his market price.
Israel objects to US announcement of Gaza peace oversight committee
Benjamin Netanyahu dips to 41%2%
Israel's government, led by Netanyahu, objected to the US announcement of leaders overseeing Gaza's next steps, reflecting tensions in US-Israel coordination and affecting Netanyahu's political standing.
US envoys urge Netanyahu to advance Gaza ceasefire second phase
Benjamin Netanyahu dips to 43%1%
US envoys pressed Netanyahu to move forward with the Gaza ceasefire's second phase, increasing diplomatic pressure and affecting his political calculations ahead of the election.
Gadi Eizenkot founds new party 'Yashar' aiming to restore hope and unity
Gadi Eizenkot rises to 20%2%
Former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eizenkot announced the founding of the Yashar party, positioning himself as a centrist-security alternative and gaining market attention as a potential prime minister candidate.
Netanyahu faces ethics debate over retouched images of his wife
Benjamin Netanyahu dips to 41%2%
The revelation of heavily retouched official photos of Netanyahu’s wife sparked ethics concerns and public trust issues, slightly affecting Netanyahu’s market support ahead of the election.
Israel objects to US-led Gaza Board of Peace appointments
Benjamin Netanyahu jumps to 44%6%
Israel's government, led by Netanyahu, objected to the US announcement of leaders overseeing Gaza's next steps, reflecting diplomatic tensions that influenced market perceptions of Netanyahu's political challenges.
Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid announce joint 'Together' party to challenge Netanyahu
Naftali Bennett jumps to 22%10%
Former Prime Ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid merged their parties into a unified list called 'Together, Led by Bennett' to consolidate opposition against Netanyahu in the upcoming election. This alliance reshaped the political landscape and boosted Bennett's market position significantly.
Bennett and Lapid announce new 'Together, Led by Bennett' party to challenge Netanyahu
Naftali Bennett rises to 38%2%
On April 27, 2026, Bennett and Lapid officially announced their unified party to contest the October elections, emphasizing a Zionist unity government and excluding Arab parties from coalition talks. This announcement reinforced Bennett's leadership role and opposition strength, influencing market prices by bolstering Bennett's prospects and challenging Netanyahu's dominance.
Bennett-Lapid ticket announced to challenge Netanyahu in upcoming election
Naftali Bennett jumps to 40%5%
The announcement of the Bennett-Lapid joint ticket consolidated opposition forces and increased market confidence in Bennett's chances against Netanyahu.
Hezbollah official rejects Lebanon-Israel US talks outcomes
Benjamin Netanyahu drops to 9%8%
Hezbollah's refusal to abide by any agreements from Lebanon-Israel talks highlighted ongoing regional instability, complicating Netanyahu's diplomatic efforts and impacting his market support.
Israel objects to US announcement of Gaza peace oversight committee
Benjamin Netanyahu dips to 40%4%
Israel's government, led by Netanyahu, publicly opposed the US announcement of a Gaza oversight committee without Israeli coordination, reflecting diplomatic tensions and impacting Netanyahu's political standing.
Naftali Bennett forms alliance 'Together' with Yair Lapid for 2026 election
Naftali Bennett surges to 41%17%
Naftali Bennett's new party Bennett 2026 allied with Yair Lapid's Yesh Atid to contest the election jointly, aiming to consolidate centrist votes and improve their chances against Netanyahu, causing a temporary rise in Bennett's market odds.
Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid announce joint 'Together' party for 2026 elections
Naftali Bennett jumps to 23%10%
Former prime ministers Bennett and Lapid merged their parties into a unified list called 'Together' to consolidate opposition against Netanyahu, boosting Bennett's market position and reshaping the political landscape ahead of the October 2026 election.
Iran-backed Hezbollah rejects Lebanon-Israel talks outcomes
Benjamin Netanyahu dips to 41%2%
Hezbollah declared it would not abide by any agreements from Lebanon-Israel talks, signaling ongoing regional instability and challenges to Netanyahu's security agenda, influencing market sentiment.
Bennett 2026 and Yesh Atid form alliance 'Together' for 2026 election
Naftali Bennett jumps to 37%7%
Naftali Bennett's formation of a new party and alliance with Yesh Atid signaled a renewed political challenge, causing a shift in market prices reflecting his increased chances.
US envoys urge Netanyahu to advance Gaza ceasefire’s second phase
Benjamin Netanyahu dips to 39%4%
Pressure from U.S. envoys on Netanyahu to move forward with the Gaza ceasefire's next phase highlighted diplomatic challenges and influenced market perceptions of his ability to manage peace efforts.
Bennett and Lapid unite under “Together”, inviting Eizenkot and Lieberman
Naftali Bennett plunges to 15%20%
Bennett and Lapid announced the merger of their parties into the joint “Together” list, with Bennett as the leader. The deal also opened the door for former defense chief Gadi Eizenkot and Yisrael Beitenu chief Avigdor Lieberman to join the alliance, dramatically reshaping the opposition bloc and lifting Bennett’s and Eizenkot’s market odds while denting Netanyahu’s.
Benjamin Netanyahu Reveals Prostate Cancer Diagnosis and Successful Treatment
Benjamin Netanyahu jumps to 48%6%
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced he had been diagnosed with early-stage prostate cancer and successfully completed targeted radiation therapy, reassuring the public of his health.
Naftali Bennett urges unity with Gadi Eizenkot to defeat Netanyahu
Naftali Bennett jumps to 41%9%
Facing slipping poll numbers, Naftali Bennett publicly called for a unity agreement with Gadi Eizenkot to consolidate opposition forces against Netanyahu. This strategic move boosted Eizenkot's profile and market price as a leading opposition candidate while signaling Bennett's weakening position.
Benjamin Netanyahu announces successful treatment for early-stage prostate cancer
Netanyahu revealed he was diagnosed with early-stage prostate cancer and completed successful treatment, reassuring the public about his health and continuing political role. This announcement temporarily stabilized his market position amid speculation about his future.
Defense Minister Israel Katz announces Israel will stay indefinitely in lands seized in Lebanon, Syria, and Gaza
Israel Katz declared that Israeli forces would remain indefinitely in occupied territories, signaling a hardline security stance that impacts political discourse and voter sentiment ahead of elections.
Israel objects to US announcement of Gaza peace oversight leaders
Benjamin Netanyahu drops to 39%5%
Israel, led by Netanyahu, objected to the US announcement of leaders overseeing Gaza's next steps, reflecting diplomatic friction and impacting Netanyahu's political standing amid ceasefire negotiations.
Gadi Eizenkot’s military reforms receive Knesset endorsement
Gadi Eizenkot surges to 20%16%
The Knesset’s approval of Eizenkot’s proposed defense reforms increased his credibility as a security‑focused leader, lifting his market price from near‑zero levels.
Itamar Ben-Gvir visits flashpoint Al-Aqsa Mosque compound, drawing condemnation
Ben-Gvir's visit to the sensitive Al-Aqsa Mosque compound sparked condemnation from Jordan and Palestinians, highlighting his controversial role and affecting his political image negatively.
US envoys urge Netanyahu to advance Gaza ceasefire deal's second phase
Benjamin Netanyahu dips to 42%1%
US envoys meeting with Netanyahu to push for the next phase of the Gaza ceasefire underscored international pressure on his government, impacting political dynamics and market perceptions of his leadership.
Netanyahu convenes cabinet to address rising settler violence in West Bank
Benjamin Netanyahu drops to 44%6%
Netanyahu's meeting with security officials to tackle escalating settler violence highlighted ongoing security challenges and political pressures, contributing to market uncertainty about his leadership prospects.
Lebanon and Israel begin direct talks amid regional conflict
Benjamin Netanyahu rises to 43%1%
Direct talks between Lebanon and Israel commenced, aiming to address ceasefire and peace issues. Netanyahu's government framed these talks as efforts to disarm Hezbollah, impacting perceptions of his leadership on security matters.
Israel reacts with unease to US-Iran ceasefire agreement
Avigdor Lieberman rises to 5%3%
Avigdor Lieberman criticized the ceasefire with Iran, warning it allows Iran to regroup, which positioned him as a hard-line alternative and slightly increased his market odds.
Gadi Eizenkot’s poll share spikes after surprise military endorsement
Gadi Eizenkot jumps to 12%8%
A senior IDF officer publicly praised Eizenkot’s strategic vision, giving him a brief surge in market price despite his overall low support.
Bennett, Eizenkot beat Netanyahu in suitability poll
Naftali Bennett jumps to 46%8%
A Lazar‑Panel4All poll published at the end of March showed Bennett and Eizenkot surpassing Netanyahu on the “suitability for prime minister” question, causing Bennett’s price to jump from 38 % to 46 % and Eizenkot’s from 13 % to 21 % while Netanyahu’s slipped.
Netanyahu faces criticism over retouched official photos of his wife
Benjamin Netanyahu drops to 49%12%
The revelation of heavily retouched official photos of Sara Netanyahu sparked ethics and trust concerns, slightly undermining Netanyahu's public image and causing a dip in his market probability.
Itamar Ben-Gvir publicly advocates for death penalty expansion for terrorists
Itamar Ben Gvir rises to 1%1%
National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir filmed a video threatening the death penalty for terrorists, drawing international criticism but maintaining a marginal political profile in the election market.
Israel attacks Iranian gas field, causing rift with Trump
Benjamin Netanyahu drops to 47%8%
Israel's strike on Iran's South Pars gas field led to a public disagreement between Netanyahu and Trump, raising questions about their coordination and impacting Netanyahu's market support.
Netanyahu convenes cabinet on rising West Bank settler violence
Benjamin Netanyahu dips to 42%2%
The meeting highlighted growing security concerns and criticism of Netanyahu’s handling of settler attacks, further eroding his support among moderate voters.
Netanyahu faces criticism over retouched images of his wife
Benjamin Netanyahu plunges to 44%16%
The revelation of heavily retouched official images of Netanyahu's wife sparked an ethics debate, potentially undermining public trust and contributing to a decline in his market probability.
Israel attacks Iranian gas field, causing regional tensions
Benjamin Netanyahu plunges to 46%15%
Israel's strike on Iran's South Pars gas field escalated regional tensions and raised questions about Netanyahu's coordination with the U.S., affecting market confidence in his political stability.
Trump warns Iran of further strikes during Netanyahu visit to Florida
Benjamin Netanyahu jumps to 61%6%
During Netanyahu's visit, Trump issued strong warnings to Iran about its nuclear program and Hamas about disarmament, reinforcing Netanyahu's security credentials and U.S. support, which boosted his market probability.
Spike in Israeli settler violence discussed in Netanyahu-led cabinet meeting
Benjamin Netanyahu plunges to 43%18%
Netanyahu convened a cabinet meeting to address rising settler violence in the West Bank, a contentious issue affecting security and political stability, which contributed to a drop in his market support due to increased tensions.
Knesset advances 2026 state budget, reducing immediate threat of snap election
Naftali Bennett drops to 27%11%
The advancement of the state budget decreased the likelihood of early elections, causing a drop in market odds for candidates favoring snap elections, including Naftali Bennett.
Knesset advances and approves 2026 state budget, reducing likelihood of snap elections
Naftali Bennett plunges to 19%16%
The approval of the state budget diminished the chances of early elections, negatively impacting Naftali Bennett's immediate prospects of becoming prime minister and causing a drop in his market price.
Netanyahu faces sharp market drop amid trial and regional tensions
Benjamin Netanyahu plunges to 45%16%
Netanyahu's market probability dropped sharply due to ongoing corruption trial pressures and heightened regional tensions, including Iran-related security concerns, reflecting increased political risk.
Justice Ministry Department Advises Against Pardon for Prime Minister Netanyahu
Benjamin Netanyahu drops to 49%12%
The Pardons Department of the Justice Ministry determined that Netanyahu's request for a presidential pardon did not meet the necessary requirements, dealing a blow to his efforts to resolve his legal troubles.
Poll shows Gadi Eizenkot's Yashar party overtaking Bennett's as main anti-Netanyahu challenger
Gadi Eizenkot jumps to 16%8%
A poll indicated that Eizenkot's party gained significant support, surpassing Bennett's, which increased his market probability as a centrist-security alternative to Netanyahu.
Naftali Bennett gains momentum after coalition talks with centrist parties
Naftali Bennett jumps to 39%8%
Bennett’s reported progress in forming a centrist coalition raised expectations of his return to power, pushing his price upward.
Benny Gantz visits Washington amid speculation of US support
Benny Gantz rises to 2%1%
Benny Gantz's trip to Washington was seen as a sign of US backing, raising his profile as a centrist challenger to Netanyahu, impacting market perceptions of his chances.
Netanyahu-Trump meeting in Florida focuses on Iran and Gaza ceasefire
Benjamin Netanyahu jumps to 62%7%
Netanyahu's high-profile meeting with former U.S. President Trump, including discussions on Iran's nuclear program and Gaza ceasefire progress, reinforced his international diplomatic stature, temporarily boosting market confidence.
Israel attacks Iranian gas field, causing regional tensions
Benjamin Netanyahu jumps to 64%6%
Israel's strike on Iran's South Pars gas field escalated regional tensions, with Netanyahu asserting Israel acted alone, affecting his market support amid international scrutiny.
Netanyahu meets Trump, who warns Iran on nuclear program
Benjamin Netanyahu jumps to 65%9%
During Netanyahu's visit to Florida, President Trump warned Iran against rebuilding its nuclear program and reiterated support for Netanyahu, bolstering Netanyahu's political position amid regional security concerns.
Trump warns Iran on nuclear program during Netanyahu visit to Florida
Benjamin Netanyahu jumps to 63%8%
During Netanyahu's visit, Trump issued strong warnings to Iran about rebuilding its nuclear program, reinforcing U.S.-Israel cooperation and Netanyahu's security credentials, which temporarily boosted his market position.
Trump warns Iran of further US strikes during Netanyahu visit to Florida
Benjamin Netanyahu jumps to 62%7%
Trump's public warning alongside Netanyahu about potential US military action against Iran reinforced Netanyahu's hardline stance on Iran, boosting his perceived leadership on security issues.
Netanyahu’s poll support plunges after Israel‑Iran war escalation
Benjamin Netanyahu plunges to 40%21%
Following a series of Israeli strikes on Iranian targets and rising war fatigue, public opinion shifted away from Netanyahu, causing a sharp price decline.
Israel and United States Launch Joint Preemptive Military Strikes Against Iran
Benjamin Netanyahu dips to 57%3%
Israel and the United States launched a joint preemptive military operation against Iran, leading to retaliatory missile strikes and a major escalation in the region. This military action temporarily bolstered Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's standing as a wartime leader.
Ayelet Shaked calls for alliance between Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Lieberman
Avigdor Lieberman rises to 4%2%
Former Justice Minister Ayelet Shaked urged Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Lieberman to join forces to strengthen the opposition against Netanyahu, highlighting shifting dynamics in the political landscape and affecting Lieberman's market prospects.
US envoys urge Netanyahu to advance Gaza ceasefire second phase
Benjamin Netanyahu jumps to 60%5%
US envoys pressed Netanyahu to move forward with the second phase of the Gaza ceasefire, including demilitarization and reconstruction, impacting his political standing and market odds.
Netanyahu convenes cabinet to address rising settler violence in West Bank
Benjamin Netanyahu dips to 52%4%
Netanyahu's meeting with security officials to discuss escalating settler violence highlighted ongoing security challenges and political pressures, influencing market perceptions of his leadership effectiveness.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion gas export deal to Egypt
Benjamin Netanyahu jumps to 61%6%
The landmark energy deal was presented as a major economic win for Israel, briefly boosting Netanyahu’s perceived competence and raising his price.
Netanyahu convenes cabinet to address rising settler violence in West Bank
Benjamin Netanyahu dips to 53%2%
Amid escalating settler violence and Palestinian casualties, Netanyahu's government faced criticism and pressure to act, impacting perceptions of his leadership and security policies.
Trump Criticizes Israeli President Herzog Over Delay in Netanyahu Pardon
Benjamin Netanyahu jumps to 59%6%
Donald Trump publicly attacked Israeli President Isaac Herzog for not granting a pardon to Benjamin Netanyahu, adding pressure to the ongoing legal and political drama surrounding the Prime Minister.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt
Benjamin Netanyahu rises to 56%3%
The historic gas export deal strengthened Israel's regional energy position and was seen as a diplomatic success for Netanyahu, positively influencing his market standing.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt
Benjamin Netanyahu rises to 55%3%
Netanyahu announced approval of a historic $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt, enhancing Israel's regional energy influence and economic stability, which positively affected his market prospects.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion gas export deal with Egypt
Benjamin Netanyahu jumps to 61%9%
The landmark energy agreement bolstered Israel’s economic outlook and showcased Netanyahu’s ability to secure major deals, temporarily lifting his market price.
Israel and US launch major air campaign against Iran
Benjamin Netanyahu rises to 55%3%
Netanyahu led a joint military offensive with the US against Iran aiming for regime change, reinforcing his image as a strong leader and affecting market odds in his favor.
Benjamin Netanyahu launches major air campaign against Iran
Netanyahu's leadership in the 2026 Iran war and his security stance reinforced his image as a strong leader, supporting his market position despite political controversies.
Prime Minister Netanyahu releases document defending his record amid investigations
Benjamin Netanyahu rises to 55%1%
Benjamin Netanyahu released a document during an investigation by the State Comptroller, defending his record and blaming political rivals, which influenced market perceptions of his political stability and election prospects.
Benjamin Netanyahu releases document defending his record amid investigations
Benjamin Netanyahu jumps to 55%5%
In February 2026, Netanyahu publicly released documents defending his actions during investigations, aiming to maintain public support and political viability. This helped stabilize his market position despite ongoing legal challenges.
Netanyahu releases document defending his record amid investigation
Benjamin Netanyahu rises to 56%3%
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu released a document responding to an investigation by the State Comptroller, blaming political rivals for failures and presenting himself positively. This move aimed to bolster his image ahead of the election, impacting his market support.
Netanyahu convenes cabinet to address rising settler violence in West Bank
Benjamin Netanyahu dips to 53%2%
Netanyahu's meeting with security officials to discuss escalating settler violence underscored ongoing security challenges and the far-right influence in his government, affecting market confidence in his leadership.
Israel recovers remains of last hostage from Gaza, paving way for ceasefire phase two
The recovery of the last hostage's remains from Gaza marked the completion of the first phase of the US-brokered ceasefire deal, enabling progress to the next phase. This development was significant for national healing and influenced political discourse ahead of the election.
Netanyahu convenes cabinet on West Bank settler violence
Benjamin Netanyahu drops to 51%5%
A cabinet meeting focused on escalating settler attacks highlighted security concerns and Netanyahu’s reliance on right‑wing coalition partners, dampening his appeal among moderate voters and pulling his price down.
Otzma Yehudit party leaves government over Gaza ceasefire agreement
Itamar Ben Gvir plunges to 1%48%
The departure of Ben-Gvir's party from the government over ceasefire disagreements weakened Netanyahu's coalition, negatively impacting Ben-Gvir's market odds and raising uncertainty about Netanyahu's hold on power.
Netanyahu convenes cabinet on rising settler violence in West Bank
Benjamin Netanyahu dips to 52%3%
Netanyahu's meeting with security officials to address escalating settler violence in the West Bank underscored ongoing security challenges, influencing market perceptions of his leadership effectiveness.
Netanyahu faces ongoing corruption trial amid political pressure
Benjamin Netanyahu dips to 52%4%
Netanyahu's corruption trial continued, with requests to postpone testimony for security reasons rejected, increasing political uncertainty and impacting his market support.
Gadi Eizenkot announces formation of new party Yashar to unite centrist voters
Gadi Eizenkot jumps to 10%8%
Former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eizenkot launched the Yashar party aiming to create a broad centrist alternative prioritizing security and national interests, attracting notable figures and signaling a challenge to Netanyahu's dominance. This boosted Eizenkot's market price significantly.
President Herzog delays decision on Netanyahu’s request to halt corruption trial
Benjamin Netanyahu drops to 40%13%
Herzog’s postponement of Netanyahu’s request to pause his trial heightened uncertainty about Netanyahu’s political future, contributing to a price drop.
Netanyahu convenes cabinet on rising settler violence in West Bank
Benjamin Netanyahu rises to 55%3%
Netanyahu held a security meeting to address escalating Israeli settler violence in the West Bank, highlighting domestic security challenges. This event underscored his leadership in managing internal conflicts, impacting his political standing.
Ultra-Orthodox teen killed during protest against military draft
Benjamin Netanyahu dips to 52%1%
The death of a teenage boy during protests against drafting ultra-Orthodox Jews into the military heightened tensions in Israel, posing a political challenge for Netanyahu who relies on religious parties, impacting his market support.
Polls and analysts predict early Israeli elections likely before October 2026
Benjamin Netanyahu jumps to 54%5%
Political commentators and officials indicated that early elections could be held as soon as June 2026 due to coalition instability and security challenges, reinforcing Netanyahu's position as the leading candidate despite ongoing criticism.
Iran crisis seen as key challenge for Netanyahu ahead of elections
Analysts noted that the crisis in Iran would be critical for Netanyahu's legacy and electoral prospects, reinforcing his position as the leading candidate. This analysis supported the market's sustained confidence in Netanyahu.
Israeli Supreme Court Orders Netanyahu to Justify Keeping Ben-Gvir in Cabinet
Benjamin Netanyahu rises to 55%3%
The High Court of Justice ordered Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to explain why he has not dismissed National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir over alleged interference in police operations, escalating a constitutional showdown.
Benny Gantz launches campaign excluding Arab parties and far-right Ben-Gvir
Benny Gantz plunges to 1%48%
Benny Gantz initiated a campaign pledging not to rely on Arab parties or far-right figures like Itamar Ben-Gvir, aiming to unify centrist voters. This stance, however, did not significantly improve his market position, which remained low.
Naftali Bennett's political comeback gains momentum with new party registration
Naftali Bennett rises to 37%3%
Naftali Bennett registered a new political party 'Bennett 2026' signaling his return to politics and challenging Netanyahu's leadership, which boosted his market odds early in 2026.
Benny Gantz launches campaign vowing not to rely on Arab parties
Benny Gantz dips to 0%1%
Centrist leader Benny Gantz initiated a campaign pledging to form a government without relying on Arab parties, aiming to attract moderate voters and counter Netanyahu's coalition. Despite low polling, this campaign marked his final political efforts before his decline.
Avigdor Lieberman leads faction meeting amid draft law challenges
Avigdor Lieberman dips to 0%2%
Yisrael Beytenu chairman Avigdor Lieberman led a faction meeting addressing enforcement policies for ultra-Orthodox draft dodging, reflecting ongoing political tensions. This contributed to his market probability remaining near zero due to limited coalition prospects.
Itamar Ben-Gvir defends role at High Court hearing amid calls for dismissal
Ben-Gvir publicly defended his actions and criticized the Attorney General ahead of a High Court hearing on petitions to dismiss him, solidifying his position within the right-wing bloc but failing to regain market support, which remained near zero.
Benny Gantz and Gadi Eizenkot leave Israeli war cabinet, calling for new elections
Benny Gantz plunges to 1%48%
On June 9, 2024, Benny Gantz and Gadi Eizenkot left the war cabinet, signaling political instability and increasing the likelihood of early elections, which affected their market odds negatively.
Yariv Levin threatens to paralyze Supreme Court, advancing judicial overhaul
Yariv Levin dips to 1%1%
Justice Minister Yariv Levin escalated efforts to overhaul Israel's judiciary, threatening to paralyze the Supreme Court. This move increased political tensions and contributed to his diminished market prospects.
Netanyahu urges calm after ultra-Orthodox teen killed during protest
Benjamin Netanyahu dips to 54%2%
The death of a 14-year-old ultra-Orthodox boy during protests against military draft laws heightened tensions, challenging Netanyahu's coalition with religious parties and affecting his political standing.
Netanyahu asserts Israel and US will prevent Iran's nuclear and missile program revival
Benjamin Netanyahu rises to 56%4%
Prime Minister Netanyahu publicly stated Israel's and the US's coordinated stance to prevent Iran from reviving its nuclear and ballistic missile programs, reinforcing his security credentials ahead of the election and supporting his market position.
Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar visits Somaliland, angering Somalia
Gideon Sa’ar's visit to Somaliland shortly after Israel recognized it as independent drew international attention and highlighted his active foreign policy role, slightly raising his profile in the political market.
Poll shows Netanyahu maintaining lead, Bennett weakening
Benjamin Netanyahu rises to 53%1%
A Kan News poll showed Netanyahu's Likud party gaining seats while Naftali Bennett's party declined, reinforcing Netanyahu's position as the likely prime minister and Bennett's weakening chances.
Netanyahu returns from Mar-a-Lago meeting with Trump amid election campaign
Benjamin Netanyahu rises to 54%1%
Prime Minister Netanyahu's fifth meeting with former US President Trump at Mar-a-Lago was seen as a strategic move to bolster his reelection campaign. The visit reinforced Netanyahu's international support and helped maintain his market lead.
Naftali Bennett forms new party 'Bennett 2026' to contest upcoming election
Naftali Bennett rises to 38%2%
Naftali Bennett registered a new political party named Bennett 2026, aiming to contest the 2026 election with a platform focused on security and constitutional reform, which affected his market odds positively.
Donald Trump Claims Netanyahu Pardon Is 'On Its Way' During Mar-a-Lago Meeting
Benjamin Netanyahu rises to 53%1%
U.S. President Donald Trump stated that Israeli President Isaac Herzog indicated a pardon for Netanyahu was coming, though Herzog's office quickly disputed the claim.
Netanyahu prepares for US visit amid mounting political pressure
Benjamin Netanyahu jumps to 56%7%
Netanyahu's upcoming visit to US President Trump was seen as a strategic move to bolster his reelection campaign amid domestic challenges including judicial reform and coalition tensions, supporting his market position as frontrunner.
Netanyahu meets Trump to push for expanded Iran talks
Benjamin Netanyahu rises to 53%1%
Netanyahu met privately with Trump, insisting that negotiations with Iran continue and include limits on ballistic missiles and militant support. This reinforced Netanyahu's image as a key regional leader, supporting his market position.
Netanyahu faces mounting pressure over critical decisions ahead of elections
Benjamin Netanyahu rises to 52%2%
Reports highlighted Netanyahu's challenges on Gaza, conscription, and judicial overhaul, emphasizing the high stakes of the upcoming election year. This coverage underscored his political resilience and maintained his market lead.
Netanyahu meets U.S. President Trump to discuss Iran talks and Gaza ceasefire
Benjamin Netanyahu jumps to 56%5%
Netanyahu's high-profile meeting with Trump to discuss Iran nuclear negotiations and Gaza ceasefire efforts reinforced his international diplomatic stature, supporting his market position as the likely next Prime Minister.
Netanyahu Prepares for High-Stakes Mar-a-Lago Meeting with Donald Trump
Benjamin Netanyahu dips to 52%1%
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu scheduled a crucial meeting with US President Donald Trump, viewed by analysts as the unofficial launch of his 2026 reelection campaign.
Netanyahu meets Trump in Washington to discuss Iran nuclear talks
Benjamin Netanyahu jumps to 56%8%
Netanyahu's private meeting with President Trump focused on U.S.-Iran negotiations, with Netanyahu pushing for inclusion of ballistic missile limits and militant group support in talks, reinforcing his image as a key regional security player.
Netanyahu faces mounting pressure with critical decisions ahead
Benjamin Netanyahu rises to 54%4%
As the election year approached, Netanyahu confronted significant challenges including Gaza policy, conscription disputes, and judicial overhaul controversies. These pressures shaped market expectations, reinforcing Netanyahu's lead but highlighting vulnerabilities.
Amir Ohana elected as Israel's first openly gay Knesset Speaker
Amir Ohana drops to 1%5%
Amir Ohana was elected Speaker of the Knesset with broad support, marking a historic milestone as the first openly gay person in this role. His appointment highlighted his influence within the Likud party and Israeli politics, though it did not significantly affect prime ministerial market odds.
Netanyahu visits Mar-a-Lago to bolster reelection bid
Benjamin Netanyahu rises to 54%1%
Benjamin Netanyahu's visit to Mar-a-Lago was seen as a strategic move to gain support from former US President Trump, aiming to reshape his reelection narrative and strengthen his campaign ahead of the 2026 elections. This helped maintain his market odds above 50%.
New West Bank settlement inaugurated amid far‑right coalition support
Benjamin Netanyahu rises to 54%3%
The opening of a new settlement, praised by Netanyahu and his right‑wing allies, reinforced his image as a champion of settlement expansion, temporarily lifting his market price.
Poll Shows Bloc Map and Coalition Strength Remain Stable Despite Turbulent Week
A new Maariv poll showed Netanyahu's coalition holding steady at 50 seats, while Benny Gantz's Blue and White and Bezalel Smotrich's Religious Zionism continued to fail to pass the electoral threshold.
Gadi Eizenkot announces formation of new political party to challenge Netanyahu
Gadi Eizenkot rises to 2%1%
Eizenkot launched a new party aiming to unite centrist and moderate voters, briefly raising his market price from near zero to 2%, though it remained low compared to Netanyahu and Bennett.
Netanyahu Trial Witness Exposes Alleged Suppression of Exculpatory Evidence
Benjamin Netanyahu rises to 52%2%
Testimony by a senior SIGINT investigator in the Jerusalem District Court suggested that police and prosecutors intentionally suppressed cell phone location data that favored Netanyahu's defense in Case 4000.
Naftali Bennett calls for investigation into Netanyahu over Qatargate scandal
Naftali Bennett rises to 35%2%
Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett publicly demanded that Israeli security agencies investigate Netanyahu in connection with the Qatargate corruption scandal. This assertive stance boosted Bennett's profile as a challenger, increasing his market probability.
Bennett calls on security agencies to probe Netanyahu in Qatargate case
Naftali Bennett rises to 35%4%
Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett publicly urged Israel's security services to investigate Netanyahu over alleged corruption in the Qatargate scandal. This move positioned Bennett as a strong opposition figure and boosted his market standing as a challenger.
France bans Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir from entering country
Itamar Ben Gvir plunges to 1%48%
Following international outrage over Ben-Gvir's treatment of Gaza flotilla activists, France imposed a travel ban on him, severely damaging his political prospects and causing his market price to fall from 49% to near zero.
Netanyahu meets Trump in Washington to discuss Iran talks
Benjamin Netanyahu rises to 53%4%
The scheduled high‑level meeting signaled close US‑Israel coordination on Iran, boosting Netanyahu’s standing among hawkish voters and causing a short‑term price rise.
Benny Gantz leaves Israeli emergency government war cabinet
Benny Gantz dips to 1%3%
Benny Gantz announced his departure from the national unity war cabinet, citing lack of a post-war Gaza plan. His exit weakened his political standing and coalition influence, reflected in his market probability dropping to 1%.
Poll Shows Likud Slipping to 25 Seats as Opposition Nears Majority
Naftali Bennett dips to 34%2%
A Maariv poll showed Likud dropping two seats to 25 following a controversial legislative blitz, while Naftali Bennett's prospective party surged to 22 seats, putting the opposition on the brink of forming a government.
Naftali Bennett's mobile phone hacked by 'Hanzala' group
A cyberattack by the 'Hanzala' group compromised former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett's mobile phone, exposing sensitive political and official data. This event raised concerns about Israel's cybersecurity and affected Bennett's political standing and market odds at the time.
Hacking Group Hanzala Breaches Former PM Naftali Bennett's Mobile Phone
Naftali Bennett dips to 35%1%
The cyber group Hanzala claimed responsibility for hacking Naftali Bennett's personal iPhone, leaking sensitive political notes and contact details of senior Israeli officials.
Former PM Naftali Bennett's Personal Mobile Phone Hacked by 'Hanzala' Group
Naftali Bennett jumps to 36%5%
A cyber operation targeting Naftali Bennett's personal phone exposed sensitive political notes, internal disputes, and contact lists of senior Israeli officials, raising cybersecurity concerns.
Naftali Bennett's phone hacked by 'Hanzala' group exposing sensitive data
Naftali Bennett plunges to 1%48%
The hacking of Bennett's phone by the Hanzala group revealed personal and official data, raising concerns about Israel's cybersecurity and potentially impacting Bennett's political standing and public perception ahead of the election.
Israeli president delays decision on Netanyahu’s request to halt corruption trial
Benjamin Netanyahu drops to 46%7%
President Isaac Herzog postponed ruling on Netanyahu’s plea to suspend his corruption trial, signaling continued legal pressure. The uncertainty lowered market confidence in Netanyahu, leading to a price drop.
Polls show Netanyahu leading with growing support ahead of 2026 election
Benjamin Netanyahu jumps to 59%10%
Polls released indicated Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party gaining momentum and leading in seats, reinforcing his position as the frontrunner for prime minister. This polling data caused Netanyahu's market probability to peak at 59%.
Likud Rises to 28 Seats in Poll as Religious Zionist Party Falls Below Threshold
Benjamin Netanyahu jumps to 59%10%
A new Maariv poll showed Likud rising to 28 seats, matching its pre-war support levels, while Bezalel Smotrich's Religious Zionist Party fell below the electoral threshold, slightly weakening the coalition's overall seat projection.
Netanyahu urges calm after ultra-Orthodox teen killed during protest
Benjamin Netanyahu dips to 49%4%
Following the death of an ultra-Orthodox teen during protests against military draft laws, Netanyahu called for restraint to prevent further violence, highlighting internal social tensions affecting his political environment.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt
Benjamin Netanyahu jumps to 53%5%
Netanyahu's approval of the largest natural gas export deal in Israeli history strengthened Israel's regional energy position and was seen as a diplomatic and economic success, boosting his market standing.
Benjamin Netanyahu releases document defending his record on October 7 attacks
Benjamin Netanyahu rises to 55%4%
On February 6, 2026, Prime Minister Netanyahu released a document responding to the State Comptroller's investigation into the October 7 attacks, blaming political rivals and portraying himself positively. This move affected market confidence in Netanyahu's leadership ahead of the election.
Poll shows opposition bloc including Bennett and Eizenkot leading over Netanyahu coalition
Naftali Bennett rises to 38%3%
A Channel 12 poll indicated the opposition bloc, including Bennett and Eizenkot, leading with 69 seats versus Netanyahu's coalition at 51, supporting Bennett's and Eizenkot's market prices and challenging Netanyahu's dominance.
Israeli cabinet approves 2026 state budget with increased defense spending
The Israeli cabinet approved a 2026 budget including a significant increase in defense spending to $35 billion, reflecting ongoing security concerns amid regional conflicts. This budget approval was crucial to avoid early elections and maintain government stability, impacting political dynamics ahead of the 2026 election.
Israeli cabinet debates 2026 budget amid risk of early elections
Benjamin Netanyahu rises to 53%4%
The cabinet began debating the 2026 state budget, with failure to approve by March 2026 potentially triggering early elections. This uncertainty influenced market sentiment, reinforcing Netanyahu's position as the likely frontrunner.
Netanyahu appoints new Mossad director, emphasizing security leadership
Benjamin Netanyahu jumps to 53%6%
Prime Minister Netanyahu appointed Maj. Gen. Roman Gofman as the next Mossad director, highlighting his leadership and intelligence credentials. This move reinforced Netanyahu's image as a strong security leader ahead of the elections, supporting his market position.
Naftali Bennett holds election event targeting women voters
Naftali Bennett rises to 36%3%
Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett actively campaigned for the upcoming election, focusing on female representation and registering his new party 'Bennett 2026'. This helped stabilize his market odds around 35%.
Naftali Bennett unveils flagship law to support IDF servicemembers and oppose draft exemptions
Naftali Bennett jumps to 38%5%
Bennett announced a major legislative proposal to incentivize military service and oppose draft exemptions for ultra-Orthodox Jews, boosting his political profile and market price from 33% to near 38%.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt
Benjamin Netanyahu jumps to 53%5%
Prime Minister Netanyahu approved a historic $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt, strengthening Israel's regional energy position and potentially boosting his political standing ahead of the election. This significant economic agreement likely supported his market probability.
Netanyahu urges calm after ultra‑Orthodox teen killed in protest over draft law
Benjamin Netanyahu rises to 49%1%
A teenage boy was killed when a bus ran over him during protests against drafting ultra‑Orthodox Jews; Netanyahu’s call for restraint highlighted the fragile coalition with religious parties, prompting a dip in his price.
Netanyahu meets Trump in Washington to discuss Iran talks
Benjamin Netanyahu jumps to 53%5%
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu held a private meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump in Washington, emphasizing joint pressure on Iran. The high‑profile diplomatic engagement boosted confidence in Netanyahu’s leadership, contributing to a price rise for his outcome.
Gadi Eizenkot announces formation of new party 'Yashar!'
Gadi Eizenkot surges to 16%15%
Former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eizenkot launched a new political party in December 2025 aiming to offer a unifying alternative to existing parties. This announcement increased his market odds as a potential Prime Minister candidate.
Bennett and Lapid unite to form a joint list ahead of 2026 elections
Naftali Bennett jumps to 40%7%
Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid announced a political alliance to strengthen the center-left opposition against Netanyahu. This merger aimed to consolidate votes and improve their chances in the upcoming election, boosting Bennett's market probability from 33% to 40%.
Supreme Court President Isaac Amit Rebukes Justice Minister Yariv Levin
Yariv Levin rises to 3%2%
Supreme Court President Isaac Amit publicly criticized Justice Minister Yariv Levin for refusing to meet with him, accusing him of boycotting the judiciary.
Netanyahu Submits Formal Request for Pre-Verdict Presidential Pardon
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu formally requested a presidential pardon from President Isaac Herzog in his ongoing corruption trial, seeking an end to the proceedings without admitting guilt.
Gadi Eizenkot Strongly Opposes Netanyahu's Preemptive Pardon Request
Gadi Eizenkot plunges to 1%48%
Former military chief Gadi Eizenkot publicly criticized Netanyahu's pardon request, stating that Israel is a nation governed by the rule of law and there cannot be a separate legal system for the Prime Minister.
Netanyahu formally requests pardon from President Herzog amid legal investigations
Benjamin Netanyahu jumps to 54%5%
Netanyahu's legal troubles became public with his formal pardon request, raising questions about his political future and causing fluctuations in his market support.
Benjamin Netanyahu Submits Formal Request for Presidential Pardon in Corruption Trial
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu officially requested a preemptive pardon from President Isaac Herzog, arguing that the trial was tearing the nation apart and that ending it was in the public interest.
Justice Minister Yariv Levin appointed to head multiple ministries after Orthodox parties quit coalition
Yariv Levin plunges to 2%47%
Following the withdrawal of Orthodox parties from the coalition, Yariv Levin was appointed to lead labor, religious services, and Jerusalem ministries, increasing his political profile but also highlighting coalition instability, which affected his market support.
Cabinet Appoints Yariv Levin to Head Three Additional Ministries After Shas Resignations
Yariv Levin plunges to 2%47%
Following the resignation of ultra-Orthodox ministers from the coalition, Justice Minister Yariv Levin was temporarily appointed to lead the Labor, Religious Services, and Jerusalem ministries.
Netanyahu announces meeting with Trump to discuss Iran talks
Benjamin Netanyahu rises to 51%2%
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced a scheduled meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump to discuss American negotiations with Iran, emphasizing the need to include ballistic missile limitations and ending support for militant groups. This heightened Netanyahu's perceived leadership role, boosting his market probability.
Israeli settlers inaugurate new West Bank settlement amid rising tensions
Benjamin Netanyahu rises to 53%4%
The establishment of a new settlement near Bethlehem, supported by Netanyahu's government, highlighted the administration's far-right policies and emboldened settlers, impacting perceptions of Netanyahu's leadership and security stance.
Netanyahu faces backlash over retouched photos of his wife in official releases
Benjamin Netanyahu drops to 43%6%
The AP reported that state‑distributed images of Sara Netanyahu were heavily retouched, sparking an ethics debate and criticism of Netanyahu’s use of media, which hurt his public image and lowered his market price.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt
Benjamin Netanyahu rises to 53%4%
Netanyahu approved a historic $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt, strengthening Israel's regional energy position and potentially boosting his political standing amid ongoing regional tensions.
Attorney General instructs Netanyahu to fill ministerial posts left vacant by Haredi lawmakers
Benjamin Netanyahu jumps to 54%5%
The Attorney General directed Prime Minister Netanyahu to appoint ministers to posts vacated by ultra-Orthodox lawmakers, reflecting ongoing tensions over conscription laws and coalition stability. This legal pressure influenced perceptions of Netanyahu's coalition management ahead of elections.
Justice Minister Yariv Levin pushes judicial appointments amid controversy
Yariv Levin plunges to 1%48%
Justice Minister Yariv Levin pushed for judicial appointments related to the Sde Teiman video leak investigation, sparking legal challenges and criticism. This controversy contributed to a decline in market confidence for Levin's prime ministerial prospects.
Israeli settlers inaugurate new West Bank settlement amid rising tensions
Benjamin Netanyahu rises to 53%4%
The establishment of a new unauthorized settlement near Bethlehem, approved by Netanyahu's government, highlighted the far-right's influence and ongoing settler violence, impacting perceptions of Netanyahu's leadership and policy direction.
Israeli Supreme Court orders Netanyahu to justify refusal to dismiss Ben-Gvir
Itamar Ben Gvir plunges to 1%48%
The Supreme Court demanded Prime Minister Netanyahu explain why he has not fired National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir amid allegations of improper interference in police work. This legal challenge highlighted tensions within Netanyahu's coalition and raised questions about Ben-Gvir's political future, causing Ben-Gvir's market probability to plummet from 49% to 1%.
Netanyahu receives in-person boost from President Trump amid Gaza ceasefire
Benjamin Netanyahu jumps to 54%5%
Following the Gaza ceasefire, Netanyahu gained political support from President Trump, bolstering his position as Prime Minister and impacting market confidence in his reappointment.
Former ISA chief Yoram Cohen joins Gadi Eizenkot's party
Gadi Eizenkot plunges to 2%47%
Yoram Cohen, former head of Israel Security Agency, joined Eizenkot's 'Yashar!' party, adding security credentials and political weight. Despite this, Eizenkot's market odds remained low, reflecting skepticism about his electoral prospects.
Israeli settlers establish new West Bank settlement amid security concerns
Benjamin Netanyahu rises to 53%4%
Following a deadly stabbing attack near Jerusalem, Israeli settlers quickly established a new settlement, emboldened by the political climate under Netanyahu's far-right government and Trump's return to office. This event reinforced Netanyahu's strong support among settler constituencies, contributing to his market strength.
Itamar Ben-Gvir's political influence diminishes amid controversy
Itamar Ben Gvir plunges to 1%48%
Ben-Gvir's market odds dropped sharply to near zero due to his controversial actions and international backlash, reducing his chances of becoming Prime Minister.
Benjamin Netanyahu consolidates Likud leadership amid internal party elections
Benjamin Netanyahu jumps to 53%9%
In November 2025, Likud held its Central Committee elections for the first time since 2012, reaffirming Netanyahu's leadership and strengthening his position ahead of the 2026 elections. This bolstered market confidence in Netanyahu's chances as next Prime Minister.
Naftali Bennett's mobile phone hacked exposing sensitive political data
Naftali Bennett drops to 36%13%
A cyberattack by the Hanzala group on Naftali Bennett's phone leaked sensitive political information, raising concerns about his security and political standing ahead of the election.
Itamar Ben-Gvir calls for assassination of Palestinian Authority officials
National Security Minister Ben Gvir publicly advocated for targeted assassinations of senior Palestinian Authority officials if the UN advanced Palestinian statehood recognition. This controversial stance intensified political scrutiny and further eroded his market support.
Netanyahu condemns settler violence amid growing criticism
Benjamin Netanyahu rises to 53%4%
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu publicly condemned violence by Jewish extremists in the West Bank, responding to criticism from the IDF chief and international observers. This stance helped stabilize his political position and maintain market confidence in his leadership prospects.
Netanyahu faces far-right backlash after US-backed statement on Palestinian state
Benjamin Netanyahu rises to 53%4%
Prime Minister Netanyahu's government faced internal coalition tensions after endorsing a US-backed UN resolution supporting a pathway to Palestinian statehood, provoking far-right allies. This backlash threatened government stability and influenced market confidence in Netanyahu's leadership prospects.
Netanyahu Vows Forceful Action Against Settler Violence and Reaffirms Stance on Hamas
Benjamin Netanyahu jumps to 54%5%
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addressed the weekly cabinet meeting, condemning extremist violence in the West Bank and reiterating his commitment to disarming Hamas.
Gadi Eizenkot Announces the Formation of New Political Party 'Yashar'
Gadi Eizenkot plunges to 2%47%
Former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eizenkot announced the establishment of his new political party, Yashar, aiming to present a broad governing alternative to the current coalition.
Benjamin Netanyahu fails to form coalition, triggering new election
Benjamin Netanyahu drops to 44%5%
Netanyahu's failure to form a government by the deadline led to the dissolution of parliament and a new election scheduled for October 2026. This event caused a sharp drop in market probabilities for Netanyahu and others as uncertainty increased.
Benjamin Netanyahu begins 2026 election campaign amid legal and political challenges
Netanyahu officially starts his campaign for the 2026 elections while facing ongoing corruption trials and political opposition, which initially held his market odds at around 49%. This set the stage for a competitive election environment.
Benjamin Netanyahu approves $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt
Benjamin Netanyahu rises to 53%4%
Netanyahu's approval of the largest natural gas export deal in Israeli history strengthened his image as a leader capable of advancing Israel's regional energy and economic interests, positively impacting his market probability.
Gadi Eizenkot announces formation of new party 'Yashar!'
Gadi Eizenkot plunges to 2%47%
Former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eizenkot announced the creation of a new political party named 'Yashar!' aiming to offer a broad alternative to the current government. This announcement caused a sharp drop in his market odds from 49% to around 2%, as the new party's prospects were uncertain.
Benjamin Netanyahu faces declining approval amid legal and health challenges
Benjamin Netanyahu drops to 37%12%
Netanyahu's approval ratings dropped to historic lows amid ongoing corruption trials and health concerns, impacting his political standing ahead of the 2026 election. Despite this, he remained a leading candidate in the market.
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