Ongoing geopolitical tensions from the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict have sharply curtailed commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint handling roughly one-fifth of global oil flows. Iranian authorities have imposed a permit system and selective access rules via the Persian Gulf Strait Authority, limiting transits to compliant vessels while maintaining de facto control amid U.S. blockades of Iranian ports. Recent shipping data shows daily movements averaging just 5-10 vessels—about 10% of pre-conflict norms—with totals in the low dozens per week as of mid-May 2026. This has driven elevated tanker freight rates, rerouting around Africa, and upward pressure on crude benchmarks tied to supply risks. Key near-term catalysts include ongoing cease-fire negotiations and potential U.S. escort operations that could influence throughput levels through month-end.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoWill __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?
Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?
$485,025 Wol.
May 31, 2026
20+
47%
40+
10%
60+
5%
80+
4%
$485,025 Wol.
20+
$111,908 Wol.
47%
40+
$122,649 Wol.
10%
60+
$68,431 Wol.
5%
80+
$182,038 Wol.
4%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing geopolitical tensions from the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict have sharply curtailed commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint handling roughly one-fifth of global oil flows. Iranian authorities have imposed a permit system and selective access rules via the Persian Gulf Strait Authority, limiting transits to compliant vessels while maintaining de facto control amid U.S. blockades of Iranian ports. Recent shipping data shows daily movements averaging just 5-10 vessels—about 10% of pre-conflict norms—with totals in the low dozens per week as of mid-May 2026. This has driven elevated tanker freight rates, rerouting around Africa, and upward pressure on crude benchmarks tied to supply risks. Key near-term catalysts include ongoing cease-fire negotiations and potential U.S. escort operations that could influence throughput levels through month-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Rynek otwarty: Apr 29, 2026, 4:59 PM ET
Wolumen
$485,025Data zakończenia
May 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 29, 2026, 4:59 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing geopolitical tensions from the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict have sharply curtailed commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint handling roughly one-fifth of global oil flows. Iranian authorities have imposed a permit system and selective access rules via the Persian Gulf Strait Authority, limiting transits to compliant vessels while maintaining de facto control amid U.S. blockades of Iranian ports. Recent shipping data shows daily movements averaging just 5-10 vessels—about 10% of pre-conflict norms—with totals in the low dozens per week as of mid-May 2026. This has driven elevated tanker freight rates, rerouting around Africa, and upward pressure on crude benchmarks tied to supply risks. Key near-term catalysts include ongoing cease-fire negotiations and potential U.S. escort operations that could influence throughput levels through month-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Wolumen
$485,025Data zakończenia
May 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 29, 2026, 4:59 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing geopolitical tensions from the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict have sharply curtailed commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint handling roughly one-fifth of global oil flows. Iranian authorities have imposed a permit system and selective access rules via the Persian Gulf Strait Authority, limiting transits to compliant vessels while maintaining de facto control amid U.S. blockades of Iranian ports. Recent shipping data shows daily movements averaging just 5-10 vessels—about 10% of pre-conflict norms—with totals in the low dozens per week as of mid-May 2026. This has driven elevated tanker freight rates, rerouting around Africa, and upward pressure on crude benchmarks tied to supply risks. Key near-term catalysts include ongoing cease-fire negotiations and potential U.S. escort operations that could influence throughput levels through month-end.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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