**Houthi rebel threats and the July 2026 maritime blockade targeting Saudi-linked vessels have kept Bab el-Mandeb transits structurally suppressed, driving the market's heaviest weighting toward the sub-25 daily average bin at 44.8%.** Recent tracking shows weekly totals stabilizing near 266 calls after an initial 24% drop from pre-blockade levels around 350, with daily commodity-ship figures fluctuating between 25–40 amid selective rerouting and elevated war-risk premiums. Forward-looking trader consensus embeds ongoing regional tensions, including residual Iran-related escalations, that continue to elevate insurance costs and prompt carriers to favor the Cape route. With the month-end window approaching and no clear de-escalation catalyst in sight, implied probabilities remain anchored to these persistent security and cost dynamics rather than a rapid rebound toward historical norms.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoNº médio de navios em trânsito no Estreito de Bab el-Mandeb no final de agosto?
Nº médio de navios em trânsito no Estreito de Bab el-Mandeb no final de agosto?
<25 44.8%
25-29 27%
30-34 20%
35-39 5%
$15,029 Vol.
$15,029 Vol.
31 ago 2026
<25
45%
25-29
27%
30-34
20%
35-39
5%
40+
2%
<25 44.8%
25-29 27%
30-34 20%
35-39 5%
$15,029 Vol.
$15,029 Vol.
31 ago 2026
<25
$2,915 Vol.
45%
25-29
$3,518 Vol.
27%
30-34
$3,754 Vol.
20%
35-39
$1,103 Vol.
5%
40+
$3,738 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.**Houthi rebel threats and the July 2026 maritime blockade targeting Saudi-linked vessels have kept Bab el-Mandeb transits structurally suppressed, driving the market's heaviest weighting toward the sub-25 daily average bin at 44.8%.** Recent tracking shows weekly totals stabilizing near 266 calls after an initial 24% drop from pre-blockade levels around 350, with daily commodity-ship figures fluctuating between 25–40 amid selective rerouting and elevated war-risk premiums. Forward-looking trader consensus embeds ongoing regional tensions, including residual Iran-related escalations, that continue to elevate insurance costs and prompt carriers to favor the Cape route. With the month-end window approaching and no clear de-escalation catalyst in sight, implied probabilities remain anchored to these persistent security and cost dynamics rather than a rapid rebound toward historical norms.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Mercado Aberto: Jul 31, 2026, 2:13 PM ET
Volume
$15,029Data de Término
31 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 31, 2026, 2:13 PM ETFonte de resolução
IMF PortWatchResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.**Houthi rebel threats and the July 2026 maritime blockade targeting Saudi-linked vessels have kept Bab el-Mandeb transits structurally suppressed, driving the market's heaviest weighting toward the sub-25 daily average bin at 44.8%.** Recent tracking shows weekly totals stabilizing near 266 calls after an initial 24% drop from pre-blockade levels around 350, with daily commodity-ship figures fluctuating between 25–40 amid selective rerouting and elevated war-risk premiums. Forward-looking trader consensus embeds ongoing regional tensions, including residual Iran-related escalations, that continue to elevate insurance costs and prompt carriers to favor the Cape route. With the month-end window approaching and no clear de-escalation catalyst in sight, implied probabilities remain anchored to these persistent security and cost dynamics rather than a rapid rebound toward historical norms.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Volume
$15,029Data de Término
31 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 31, 2026, 2:13 PM ETFonte de resolução
IMF PortWatchResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Houthi rebel threats and the July 2026 maritime blockade targeting Saudi-linked vessels have kept Bab el-Mandeb transits structurally suppressed, driving the market's heaviest weighting toward the sub-25 daily average bin at 44.8%.** Recent tracking shows weekly totals stabilizing near 266 calls after an initial 24% drop from pre-blockade levels around 350, with daily commodity-ship figures fluctuating between 25–40 amid selective rerouting and elevated war-risk premiums. Forward-looking trader consensus embeds ongoing regional tensions, including residual Iran-related escalations, that continue to elevate insurance costs and prompt carriers to favor the Cape route. With the month-end window approaching and no clear de-escalation catalyst in sight, implied probabilities remain anchored to these persistent security and cost dynamics rather than a rapid rebound toward historical norms.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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