Alibaba leads trader consensus at 64% implied probability for the top Chinese AI model on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard by May 31, propelled by its Qwen 3.6 Max release in early May outperforming Claude 4.5 Opus in benchmarks and amassing over 1 billion downloads as the most-adopted open-source LLM. Baidu's Ernie, dominant through April, slipped to 19.5% amid leaderboard shifts favoring Qwen's efficiency gains despite U.S. chip curbs. Zhipu AI's GLM secures 9% with strong reasoning scores, while ByteDance and others lag below 3%. Traders anticipate late-May model updates or evaluations could alter the closely watched rankings.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoBest Chinese AI Company end of May?
Best Chinese AI Company end of May?
Alibaba 63%
Baidu 20%
Z.ai 9%
ByteDance 2.6%
$81,241 Vol.
$81,241 Vol.
31 mai 2026
Alibaba
63%
Baidu
20%
Z.ai
9%
ByteDance
3%
Moonshot
1%
DeepSeek
1%
Xiaomi
1%
MiniMax
1%
Tencent
<1%
Meituan
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Alibaba 63%
Baidu 20%
Z.ai 9%
ByteDance 2.6%
$81,241 Vol.
$81,241 Vol.
31 mai 2026
Alibaba
$15,992 Vol.
63%
Baidu
$11,061 Vol.
20%
Z.ai
$10,254 Vol.
9%
ByteDance
$9,463 Vol.
3%
Moonshot
$5,499 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$6,158 Vol.
1%
Xiaomi
$6,886 Vol.
1%
MiniMax
$5,163 Vol.
1%
Tencent
$4,598 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$3,068 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$3,133 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank among primarily Chinese companies, based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Qualifying Chinese Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Alibaba leads trader consensus at 64% implied probability for the top Chinese AI model on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard by May 31, propelled by its Qwen 3.6 Max release in early May outperforming Claude 4.5 Opus in benchmarks and amassing over 1 billion downloads as the most-adopted open-source LLM. Baidu's Ernie, dominant through April, slipped to 19.5% amid leaderboard shifts favoring Qwen's efficiency gains despite U.S. chip curbs. Zhipu AI's GLM secures 9% with strong reasoning scores, while ByteDance and others lag below 3%. Traders anticipate late-May model updates or evaluations could alter the closely watched rankings.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank among primarily Chinese companies, based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Qualifying Chinese Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Qualifying Chinese Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Mercado Aberto: Apr 27, 2026, 5:49 PM ET
Volume
$81,241Data de Término
31 mai 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 27, 2026, 5:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank among primarily Chinese companies, based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Qualifying Chinese Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Alibaba leads trader consensus at 64% implied probability for the top Chinese AI model on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard by May 31, propelled by its Qwen 3.6 Max release in early May outperforming Claude 4.5 Opus in benchmarks and amassing over 1 billion downloads as the most-adopted open-source LLM. Baidu's Ernie, dominant through April, slipped to 19.5% amid leaderboard shifts favoring Qwen's efficiency gains despite U.S. chip curbs. Zhipu AI's GLM secures 9% with strong reasoning scores, while ByteDance and others lag below 3%. Traders anticipate late-May model updates or evaluations could alter the closely watched rankings.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank among primarily Chinese companies, based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Qualifying Chinese Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Qualifying Chinese Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$81,241Data de Término
31 mai 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 27, 2026, 5:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Alibaba leads trader consensus at 64% implied probability for the top Chinese AI model on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard by May 31, propelled by its Qwen 3.6 Max release in early May outperforming Claude 4.5 Opus in benchmarks and amassing over 1 billion downloads as the most-adopted open-source LLM. Baidu's Ernie, dominant through April, slipped to 19.5% amid leaderboard shifts favoring Qwen's efficiency gains despite U.S. chip curbs. Zhipu AI's GLM secures 9% with strong reasoning scores, while ByteDance and others lag below 3%. Traders anticipate late-May model updates or evaluations could alter the closely watched rankings.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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