Democratic incumbent Josh Harder secured a commanding primary victory in June 2026, advancing against Republican John McBride in California's 9th district. Nonpartisan forecasts from Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and others consistently rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting a partisan lean of roughly D+8 and significant overlap with prior Democratic strongholds after Proposition 50 redistricting. Harder's established fundraising, endorsements from labor and environmental groups, and the district's voter registration advantage reinforce trader consensus. A realistic shift would require an unforeseen national Republican wave, major scandal, or health-related withdrawal by the incumbent before November 3, 2026—developments that remain absent from current reporting.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoVencedor da eleição da casa CA-09
Vencedor da eleição da casa CA-09
$19,478 Vol.
$19,478 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Partido Democrata
94%
Partido Republicano
6%
$19,478 Vol.
$19,478 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Partido Democrata
$12,470 Vol.
94%
Partido Republicano
$7,009 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic incumbent Josh Harder secured a commanding primary victory in June 2026, advancing against Republican John McBride in California's 9th district. Nonpartisan forecasts from Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and others consistently rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting a partisan lean of roughly D+8 and significant overlap with prior Democratic strongholds after Proposition 50 redistricting. Harder's established fundraising, endorsements from labor and environmental groups, and the district's voter registration advantage reinforce trader consensus. A realistic shift would require an unforeseen national Republican wave, major scandal, or health-related withdrawal by the incumbent before November 3, 2026—developments that remain absent from current reporting.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado Aberto: Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
Volume
$19,478Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic incumbent Josh Harder secured a commanding primary victory in June 2026, advancing against Republican John McBride in California's 9th district. Nonpartisan forecasts from Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and others consistently rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting a partisan lean of roughly D+8 and significant overlap with prior Democratic strongholds after Proposition 50 redistricting. Harder's established fundraising, endorsements from labor and environmental groups, and the district's voter registration advantage reinforce trader consensus. A realistic shift would require an unforeseen national Republican wave, major scandal, or health-related withdrawal by the incumbent before November 3, 2026—developments that remain absent from current reporting.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$19,478Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Democratic incumbent Josh Harder secured a commanding primary victory in June 2026, advancing against Republican John McBride in California's 9th district. Nonpartisan forecasts from Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and others consistently rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting a partisan lean of roughly D+8 and significant overlap with prior Democratic strongholds after Proposition 50 redistricting. Harder's established fundraising, endorsements from labor and environmental groups, and the district's voter registration advantage reinforce trader consensus. A realistic shift would require an unforeseen national Republican wave, major scandal, or health-related withdrawal by the incumbent before November 3, 2026—developments that remain absent from current reporting.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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