**Traders assign a 92.5% probability to an outright winner in the first round of Georgia’s 2026 gubernatorial election because the Republican nominee Rick Jackson and Democratic nominee Keisha Lance Bottoms are positioned for a decisive result under the state’s majority-vote rule.** Jackson secured the GOP nomination after finishing first in the May 19 primary and defeating Burt Jones in the June 16 runoff. Bottoms won her party’s primary outright with 56.2% on May 19. With the general election set for November 3, recent polling trends, fundraising patterns, and Georgia’s electoral history show limited likelihood of a fragmented field or turnout surge that would keep both candidates below 50%. Similar “first-round outright winner” markets for other 2026 Georgia races reflect comparable consensus when one party holds structural or resource advantages. No major late-breaking events, candidate withdrawals, or legal developments have altered this assessment in the past month. The implied probability aligns with the “wisdom of crowds” in prediction markets, where real capital reflects assessments of majority thresholds rather than guarantees. A narrow polling margin or unexpected turnout shift remains the main scenario that could still produce a runoff.