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icon for Vencedor da eleição parcial da Grande Wellington Wairarapa
Política·Nova Zelândia

Vencedor da eleição parcial da Grande Wellington Wairarapa

icon for Vencedor da eleição parcial da Grande Wellington Wairarapa
Política·Nova Zelândia

Vencedor da eleição parcial da Grande Wellington Wairarapa

John Hart 100.0%

Alistair Plimmer 3.3%

Michael Birch 1.8%

Colin Olds 1.8%

Polymarket

$4,750 Vol.

John Hart 100.0%

Alistair Plimmer 3.3%

Michael Birch 1.8%

Colin Olds 1.8%

Polymarket

$4,750 Vol.

icon for Michael Birch

Michael Birch

$254 Vol.

Não

icon for Amber Craig

Amber Craig

$360 Vol.

Não

icon for Jill Greathead

Jill Greathead

$266 Vol.

Não

icon for John Hart

John Hart

$484 Vol.

Sim

icon for Colin Olds

Colin Olds

$380 Vol.

Não

icon for Alistair Plimmer

Alistair Plimmer

$3,006 Vol.

Não

A by-election for the Wairarapa constituency of the Greater Wellington Regional Council in New Zealand is currently scheduled to be held on on August 21, 2026, following the death of incumbent councillor Adrienne Staples. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Wairarapa constituency by-election for the Greater Wellington Regional Council. If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by the Greater Wellington Regional Council (https://www.gw.govt.nz/).John Hart secured the Greater Wellington Regional Council Wairarapa constituency seat in the 21 August 2026 by-election, triggered by the death of incumbent Adrienne Staples. Under the single transferable vote system, Hart advanced through preference distributions to reach the required quota ahead of Alistair Plimmer, Colin Olds, Michael Birch and other candidates. His community and catchment group experience, combined with prior local governance roles, supported strong second and later preferences that consolidated support. Official results confirmed on 25 August align with the market's 99.6% pricing for Hart. Late procedural challenges or recount anomalies remain theoretically possible but lack supporting evidence at this stage.

A by-election for the Wairarapa constituency of the Greater Wellington Regional Council in New Zealand is currently scheduled to be held on on August 21, 2026, following the death of incumbent councillor Adrienne Staples.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Wairarapa constituency by-election for the Greater Wellington Regional Council.

If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by the Greater Wellington Regional Council (https://www.gw.govt.nz/).A by-election for the Wairarapa constituency of the Greater Wellington Regional Council in New Zealand is currently scheduled to be held on on August 21, 2026, following the death of incumbent councillor Adrienne Staples. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Wairarapa constituency by-election for the Greater Wellington Regional Council. If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by the Greater Wellington Regional Council (https://www.gw.govt.nz/).
Volume
$4,750
Data de Término
21 ago 2026
Mercado Aberto
Aug 11, 2026, 8:16 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

Resultado proposto: Não

Sem contestação

Resultado final: Não

A by-election for the Wairarapa constituency of the Greater Wellington Regional Council in New Zealand is currently scheduled to be held on on August 21, 2026, following the death of incumbent councillor Adrienne Staples. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Wairarapa constituency by-election for the Greater Wellington Regional Council. If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by the Greater Wellington Regional Council (https://www.gw.govt.nz/).John Hart secured the Greater Wellington Regional Council Wairarapa constituency seat in the 21 August 2026 by-election, triggered by the death of incumbent Adrienne Staples. Under the single transferable vote system, Hart advanced through preference distributions to reach the required quota ahead of Alistair Plimmer, Colin Olds, Michael Birch and other candidates. His community and catchment group experience, combined with prior local governance roles, supported strong second and later preferences that consolidated support. Official results confirmed on 25 August align with the market's 99.6% pricing for Hart. Late procedural challenges or recount anomalies remain theoretically possible but lack supporting evidence at this stage.

A by-election for the Wairarapa constituency of the Greater Wellington Regional Council in New Zealand is currently scheduled to be held on on August 21, 2026, following the death of incumbent councillor Adrienne Staples.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Wairarapa constituency by-election for the Greater Wellington Regional Council.

If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by the Greater Wellington Regional Council (https://www.gw.govt.nz/).A by-election for the Wairarapa constituency of the Greater Wellington Regional Council in New Zealand is currently scheduled to be held on on August 21, 2026, following the death of incumbent councillor Adrienne Staples. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Wairarapa constituency by-election for the Greater Wellington Regional Council. If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by the Greater Wellington Regional Council (https://www.gw.govt.nz/).
Volume
$4,750
Data de Término
21 ago 2026
Mercado Aberto
Aug 11, 2026, 8:16 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

Resultado proposto: Não

Sem contestação

Resultado final: Não

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Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Vencedor da eleição parcial da Grande Wellington Wairarapa" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "John Hart" at 100%, followed by "Michael Birch" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Vencedor da eleição parcial da Grande Wellington Wairarapa" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 11, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Vencedor da eleição parcial da Grande Wellington Wairarapa," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Vencedor da eleição parcial da Grande Wellington Wairarapa" is "John Hart" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Michael Birch" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Vencedor da eleição parcial da Grande Wellington Wairarapa" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.