**Ongoing US-Iran military exchanges in the Strait of Hormuz region, including repeated strikes on Hengam Island itself, form the core driver of trader assessments for any near-term shift in control.** Hengam, a small island south of Qeshm with naval and military facilities, has faced documented US or coalition airstrikes targeting ports, vessels, and infrastructure in April and June 2026 amid broader operations against Iranian missile sites, command centers, and maritime assets. Iran has responded by asserting oversight of shipping lanes, imposing routing requirements, and conducting counter-strikes, while maintaining garrisons on Hengam and neighboring islands such as Kharg and Qeshm. These islands collectively anchor Iran's defensive posture around the strait, a chokepoint handling roughly one-fifth of global oil transit. Diplomatic proposals between Iran and Oman in July 2026 for joint management mechanisms have introduced potential de-escalation pathways, though Tehran has countered with demands for fuller Iranian routing authority. No verified reports indicate territorial seizure or change in sovereignty to date. Trader positioning therefore tracks escalation thresholds, such as expanded ground or amphibious actions, sustained ceasefire viability, or shifts in US policy under the current administration, with resolution hinging on verifiable loss of Iranian administrative and military authority over the island.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoA ilha de Hengam não está mais sob o controle iraniano por...?
A ilha de Hengam não está mais sob o controle iraniano por...?
$120,915 Vol.
31 ago 2026
31 de agosto
1%
$120,915 Vol.
31 de agosto
$93,367 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hengam Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.**Ongoing US-Iran military exchanges in the Strait of Hormuz region, including repeated strikes on Hengam Island itself, form the core driver of trader assessments for any near-term shift in control.**
Hengam, a small island south of Qeshm with naval and military facilities, has faced documented US or coalition airstrikes targeting ports, vessels, and infrastructure in April and June 2026 amid broader operations against Iranian missile sites, command centers, and maritime assets. Iran has responded by asserting oversight of shipping lanes, imposing routing requirements, and conducting counter-strikes, while maintaining garrisons on Hengam and neighboring islands such as Kharg and Qeshm. These islands collectively anchor Iran's defensive posture around the strait, a chokepoint handling roughly one-fifth of global oil transit.
Diplomatic proposals between Iran and Oman in July 2026 for joint management mechanisms have introduced potential de-escalation pathways, though Tehran has countered with demands for fuller Iranian routing authority. No verified reports indicate territorial seizure or change in sovereignty to date. Trader positioning therefore tracks escalation thresholds, such as expanded ground or amphibious actions, sustained ceasefire viability, or shifts in US policy under the current administration, with resolution hinging on verifiable loss of Iranian administrative and military authority over the island.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hengam Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ET
Volume
$120,915Data de Término
31 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hengam Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.**Ongoing US-Iran military exchanges in the Strait of Hormuz region, including repeated strikes on Hengam Island itself, form the core driver of trader assessments for any near-term shift in control.**
Hengam, a small island south of Qeshm with naval and military facilities, has faced documented US or coalition airstrikes targeting ports, vessels, and infrastructure in April and June 2026 amid broader operations against Iranian missile sites, command centers, and maritime assets. Iran has responded by asserting oversight of shipping lanes, imposing routing requirements, and conducting counter-strikes, while maintaining garrisons on Hengam and neighboring islands such as Kharg and Qeshm. These islands collectively anchor Iran's defensive posture around the strait, a chokepoint handling roughly one-fifth of global oil transit.
Diplomatic proposals between Iran and Oman in July 2026 for joint management mechanisms have introduced potential de-escalation pathways, though Tehran has countered with demands for fuller Iranian routing authority. No verified reports indicate territorial seizure or change in sovereignty to date. Trader positioning therefore tracks escalation thresholds, such as expanded ground or amphibious actions, sustained ceasefire viability, or shifts in US policy under the current administration, with resolution hinging on verifiable loss of Iranian administrative and military authority over the island.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hengam Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$120,915Data de Término
31 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Ongoing US-Iran military exchanges in the Strait of Hormuz region, including repeated strikes on Hengam Island itself, form the core driver of trader assessments for any near-term shift in control.** Hengam, a small island south of Qeshm with naval and military facilities, has faced documented US or coalition airstrikes targeting ports, vessels, and infrastructure in April and June 2026 amid broader operations against Iranian missile sites, command centers, and maritime assets. Iran has responded by asserting oversight of shipping lanes, imposing routing requirements, and conducting counter-strikes, while maintaining garrisons on Hengam and neighboring islands such as Kharg and Qeshm. These islands collectively anchor Iran's defensive posture around the strait, a chokepoint handling roughly one-fifth of global oil transit. Diplomatic proposals between Iran and Oman in July 2026 for joint management mechanisms have introduced potential de-escalation pathways, though Tehran has countered with demands for fuller Iranian routing authority. No verified reports indicate territorial seizure or change in sovereignty to date. Trader positioning therefore tracks escalation thresholds, such as expanded ground or amphibious actions, sustained ceasefire viability, or shifts in US policy under the current administration, with resolution hinging on verifiable loss of Iranian administrative and military authority over the island.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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