President Trump's arrival in Beijing today for a high-stakes two-day summit with Xi Jinping has traders pricing a prolonged handshake at 56.5% probability for 15 seconds or longer, reflecting expectations of cordial optics amid tense discussions on tariffs, Taiwan, artificial intelligence, and Iran tensions. Recent positive signals, including Trump's April remarks predicting a "big fat hug" from Xi after China agreed not to arm Iran and amid Strait of Hormuz developments, bolster bets on extended physical contact as a diplomatic rapport indicator. Shorter durations trail due to historical firm grips at prior encounters like APEC 2025, with no-handshake odds near 1% signaling near-certainty of engagement during today's state welcome.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado15s+ 57%
10–15s 20%
6–10s 16%
2–6s 4.8%
$261,630 Vol.
$261,630 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Sem Aperto de Mão
1%
<2s
1%
2–6s
5%
6–10s
16%
10–15s
20%
15s+
57%
Apenas fotografados
3%
15s+ 57%
10–15s 20%
6–10s 16%
2–6s 4.8%
$261,630 Vol.
$261,630 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Sem Aperto de Mão
$50,305 Vol.
1%
<2s
$40,761 Vol.
1%
2–6s
$40,936 Vol.
5%
6–10s
$20,226 Vol.
16%
10–15s
$20,250 Vol.
20%
15s+
$48,229 Vol.
57%
Apenas fotografados
$41,479 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the length of the longest filmed handshake between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping during the day of their next meeting in 2026 (in the local timezone of the location of their next meeting). Any handshake recorded on that date will qualify.
If no handshake occurs during the date of their next meeting, or if no meeting takes place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Handshake”.
If a handshake is photographed but not captured on video, this market will resolve to "Photographed only".
Duration will be measured from the exact moment their hands make initial physical contact until the exact moment either breaks contact.
If the measured duration falls exactly on the boundary between two duration brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Qualifying Requirements:
The handshake must be voluntary, intentional, and in person.
Direct hand-to-hand contact is required (gloves or mittens are permitted).
The handshake must be clearly visible on video from start to finish.
Non-qualifying examples:
Fist bumps, hugs, waves, or other non-handshake greetings.
Any handshake that is too unclear to measure.
Only photographic evidence exists without a way to measure duration.
The resolution source will be video footage.President Trump's arrival in Beijing today for a high-stakes two-day summit with Xi Jinping has traders pricing a prolonged handshake at 56.5% probability for 15 seconds or longer, reflecting expectations of cordial optics amid tense discussions on tariffs, Taiwan, artificial intelligence, and Iran tensions. Recent positive signals, including Trump's April remarks predicting a "big fat hug" from Xi after China agreed not to arm Iran and amid Strait of Hormuz developments, bolster bets on extended physical contact as a diplomatic rapport indicator. Shorter durations trail due to historical firm grips at prior encounters like APEC 2025, with no-handshake odds near 1% signaling near-certainty of engagement during today's state welcome.
This market will resolve according to the length of the longest filmed handshake between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping during the day of their next meeting in 2026 (in the local timezone of the location of their next meeting). Any handshake recorded on that date will qualify.
If no handshake occurs during the date of their next meeting, or if no meeting takes place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Handshake”.
If a handshake is photographed but not captured on video, this market will resolve to "Photographed only".
Duration will be measured from the exact moment their hands make initial physical contact until the exact moment either breaks contact.
If the measured duration falls exactly on the boundary between two duration brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Qualifying Requirements:
The handshake must be voluntary, intentional, and in person.
Direct hand-to-hand contact is required (gloves or mittens are permitted).
The handshake must be clearly visible on video from start to finish.
Non-qualifying examples:
Fist bumps, hugs, waves, or other non-handshake greetings.
Any handshake that is too unclear to measure.
Only photographic evidence exists without a way to measure duration.
The resolution source will be video footage.
If no handshake occurs during the date of their next meeting, or if no meeting takes place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Handshake”.
If a handshake is photographed but not captured on video, this market will resolve to "Photographed only".
Duration will be measured from the exact moment their hands make initial physical contact until the exact moment either breaks contact.
If the measured duration falls exactly on the boundary between two duration brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Qualifying Requirements:
The handshake must be voluntary, intentional, and in person.
Direct hand-to-hand contact is required (gloves or mittens are permitted).
The handshake must be clearly visible on video from start to finish.
Non-qualifying examples:
Fist bumps, hugs, waves, or other non-handshake greetings.
Any handshake that is too unclear to measure.
Only photographic evidence exists without a way to measure duration.
The resolution source will be video footage.
Mercado Aberto: Feb 10, 2026, 6:58 PM ET
Volume
$261,630Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Feb 10, 2026, 6:58 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the length of the longest filmed handshake between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping during the day of their next meeting in 2026 (in the local timezone of the location of their next meeting). Any handshake recorded on that date will qualify.
If no handshake occurs during the date of their next meeting, or if no meeting takes place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Handshake”.
If a handshake is photographed but not captured on video, this market will resolve to "Photographed only".
Duration will be measured from the exact moment their hands make initial physical contact until the exact moment either breaks contact.
If the measured duration falls exactly on the boundary between two duration brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Qualifying Requirements:
The handshake must be voluntary, intentional, and in person.
Direct hand-to-hand contact is required (gloves or mittens are permitted).
The handshake must be clearly visible on video from start to finish.
Non-qualifying examples:
Fist bumps, hugs, waves, or other non-handshake greetings.
Any handshake that is too unclear to measure.
Only photographic evidence exists without a way to measure duration.
The resolution source will be video footage.President Trump's arrival in Beijing today for a high-stakes two-day summit with Xi Jinping has traders pricing a prolonged handshake at 56.5% probability for 15 seconds or longer, reflecting expectations of cordial optics amid tense discussions on tariffs, Taiwan, artificial intelligence, and Iran tensions. Recent positive signals, including Trump's April remarks predicting a "big fat hug" from Xi after China agreed not to arm Iran and amid Strait of Hormuz developments, bolster bets on extended physical contact as a diplomatic rapport indicator. Shorter durations trail due to historical firm grips at prior encounters like APEC 2025, with no-handshake odds near 1% signaling near-certainty of engagement during today's state welcome.
This market will resolve according to the length of the longest filmed handshake between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping during the day of their next meeting in 2026 (in the local timezone of the location of their next meeting). Any handshake recorded on that date will qualify.
If no handshake occurs during the date of their next meeting, or if no meeting takes place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Handshake”.
If a handshake is photographed but not captured on video, this market will resolve to "Photographed only".
Duration will be measured from the exact moment their hands make initial physical contact until the exact moment either breaks contact.
If the measured duration falls exactly on the boundary between two duration brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Qualifying Requirements:
The handshake must be voluntary, intentional, and in person.
Direct hand-to-hand contact is required (gloves or mittens are permitted).
The handshake must be clearly visible on video from start to finish.
Non-qualifying examples:
Fist bumps, hugs, waves, or other non-handshake greetings.
Any handshake that is too unclear to measure.
Only photographic evidence exists without a way to measure duration.
The resolution source will be video footage.
If no handshake occurs during the date of their next meeting, or if no meeting takes place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Handshake”.
If a handshake is photographed but not captured on video, this market will resolve to "Photographed only".
Duration will be measured from the exact moment their hands make initial physical contact until the exact moment either breaks contact.
If the measured duration falls exactly on the boundary between two duration brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Qualifying Requirements:
The handshake must be voluntary, intentional, and in person.
Direct hand-to-hand contact is required (gloves or mittens are permitted).
The handshake must be clearly visible on video from start to finish.
Non-qualifying examples:
Fist bumps, hugs, waves, or other non-handshake greetings.
Any handshake that is too unclear to measure.
Only photographic evidence exists without a way to measure duration.
The resolution source will be video footage.
Volume
$261,630Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Feb 10, 2026, 6:58 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...President Trump's arrival in Beijing today for a high-stakes two-day summit with Xi Jinping has traders pricing a prolonged handshake at 56.5% probability for 15 seconds or longer, reflecting expectations of cordial optics amid tense discussions on tariffs, Taiwan, artificial intelligence, and Iran tensions. Recent positive signals, including Trump's April remarks predicting a "big fat hug" from Xi after China agreed not to arm Iran and amid Strait of Hormuz developments, bolster bets on extended physical contact as a diplomatic rapport indicator. Shorter durations trail due to historical firm grips at prior encounters like APEC 2025, with no-handshake odds near 1% signaling near-certainty of engagement during today's state welcome.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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