Recent Houthi attacks, including the fatal strike on the Tihamah near the Bab el-Mandeb in mid-August 2026, have heightened maritime risk premiums and prompted selective rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, creating uncertainty in weekly transit volumes. Trader consensus reflects this balance, with the 200-219 range holding a slim 37.6% implied probability amid prior-week data showing roughly 226 crossings and daily swings between 23-43 vessels. Elevated war-risk insurance costs, ongoing Saudi blockade threats, and potential fee considerations add volatility, while any de-escalation or naval escort increases could shift flows toward the 220+ outcome. Closely matched odds across all buckets underscore how incremental incident reports and shipping-line decisions will determine resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoQuantos navios transitam na semana do Estreito de Bab el-Mandeb de 10 de agosto?
Quantos navios transitam na semana do Estreito de Bab el-Mandeb de 10 de agosto?
180-199 33%
220+ 17%
<180 0
200-219 0
$12,247 Vol.
$12,247 Vol.
16 ago 2026
<180
31%
180-199
33%
200-219
38%
220+
35%
180-199 33%
220+ 17%
<180 0
200-219 0
$12,247 Vol.
$12,247 Vol.
16 ago 2026
<180
$6,149 Vol.
31%
180-199
$2,022 Vol.
33%
200-219
$812 Vol.
38%
220+
$3,264 Vol.
35%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi attacks, including the fatal strike on the Tihamah near the Bab el-Mandeb in mid-August 2026, have heightened maritime risk premiums and prompted selective rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, creating uncertainty in weekly transit volumes. Trader consensus reflects this balance, with the 200-219 range holding a slim 37.6% implied probability amid prior-week data showing roughly 226 crossings and daily swings between 23-43 vessels. Elevated war-risk insurance costs, ongoing Saudi blockade threats, and potential fee considerations add volatility, while any de-escalation or naval escort increases could shift flows toward the 220+ outcome. Closely matched odds across all buckets underscore how incremental incident reports and shipping-line decisions will determine resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Mercado Aberto: Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ET
Volume
$12,247Data de Término
16 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi attacks, including the fatal strike on the Tihamah near the Bab el-Mandeb in mid-August 2026, have heightened maritime risk premiums and prompted selective rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, creating uncertainty in weekly transit volumes. Trader consensus reflects this balance, with the 200-219 range holding a slim 37.6% implied probability amid prior-week data showing roughly 226 crossings and daily swings between 23-43 vessels. Elevated war-risk insurance costs, ongoing Saudi blockade threats, and potential fee considerations add volatility, while any de-escalation or naval escort increases could shift flows toward the 220+ outcome. Closely matched odds across all buckets underscore how incremental incident reports and shipping-line decisions will determine resolution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Volume
$12,247Data de Término
16 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Houthi attacks, including the fatal strike on the Tihamah near the Bab el-Mandeb in mid-August 2026, have heightened maritime risk premiums and prompted selective rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, creating uncertainty in weekly transit volumes. Trader consensus reflects this balance, with the 200-219 range holding a slim 37.6% implied probability amid prior-week data showing roughly 226 crossings and daily swings between 23-43 vessels. Elevated war-risk insurance costs, ongoing Saudi blockade threats, and potential fee considerations add volatility, while any de-escalation or naval escort increases could shift flows toward the 220+ outcome. Closely matched odds across all buckets underscore how incremental incident reports and shipping-line decisions will determine resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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