Iowa's 3rd congressional district remains one of the most competitive House seats heading into the November 2026 general election, with incumbent Republican Zach Nunn facing Democratic state Sen. Sarah Trone Garriott after both cleared uncontested or low-contest primaries in June. Traders appear to price in a national midterm environment and local dynamics that could favor the challenger, including the district's narrow Republican lean (Cook PVI R+2) and Nunn's 2024 margin of roughly four points that aligned closely with presidential results. Recent developments include the release of initial Democratic general-election ads in early August and a March poll showing Nunn ahead by six points, though the race has drawn attention as a potential battleground amid broader House control questions. The implied probabilities reflect trader assessments of turnout patterns, campaign momentum, and any shifts in the national political climate over the coming months.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoIA-03 House Election Winner
IA-03 House Election Winner
NOVO
NOVO
4 nov 2026
Democratic Party
72%
Republican Party
31%
NOVO
NOVO
4 nov 2026
Democratic Party
$3,050 Vol.
72%
Republican Party
$3,217 Vol.
31%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Iowa's 3rd congressional district remains one of the most competitive House seats heading into the November 2026 general election, with incumbent Republican Zach Nunn facing Democratic state Sen. Sarah Trone Garriott after both cleared uncontested or low-contest primaries in June. Traders appear to price in a national midterm environment and local dynamics that could favor the challenger, including the district's narrow Republican lean (Cook PVI R+2) and Nunn's 2024 margin of roughly four points that aligned closely with presidential results. Recent developments include the release of initial Democratic general-election ads in early August and a March poll showing Nunn ahead by six points, though the race has drawn attention as a potential battleground amid broader House control questions. The implied probabilities reflect trader assessments of turnout patterns, campaign momentum, and any shifts in the national political climate over the coming months.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado Aberto: Dec 16, 2025, 11:59 AM ET
Volume
$6,267Data de Término
4 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 16, 2025, 11:59 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Iowa's 3rd congressional district remains one of the most competitive House seats heading into the November 2026 general election, with incumbent Republican Zach Nunn facing Democratic state Sen. Sarah Trone Garriott after both cleared uncontested or low-contest primaries in June. Traders appear to price in a national midterm environment and local dynamics that could favor the challenger, including the district's narrow Republican lean (Cook PVI R+2) and Nunn's 2024 margin of roughly four points that aligned closely with presidential results. Recent developments include the release of initial Democratic general-election ads in early August and a March poll showing Nunn ahead by six points, though the race has drawn attention as a potential battleground amid broader House control questions. The implied probabilities reflect trader assessments of turnout patterns, campaign momentum, and any shifts in the national political climate over the coming months.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$6,267Data de Término
4 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 16, 2025, 11:59 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Iowa's 3rd congressional district remains one of the most competitive House seats heading into the November 2026 general election, with incumbent Republican Zach Nunn facing Democratic state Sen. Sarah Trone Garriott after both cleared uncontested or low-contest primaries in June. Traders appear to price in a national midterm environment and local dynamics that could favor the challenger, including the district's narrow Republican lean (Cook PVI R+2) and Nunn's 2024 margin of roughly four points that aligned closely with presidential results. Recent developments include the release of initial Democratic general-election ads in early August and a March poll showing Nunn ahead by six points, though the race has drawn attention as a potential battleground amid broader House control questions. The implied probabilities reflect trader assessments of turnout patterns, campaign momentum, and any shifts in the national political climate over the coming months.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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