The Illinois 4th congressional district's deep Democratic partisan lean, rooted in its Chicago urban core and surrounding suburbs, drives the current trader consensus favoring a Democratic outcome in the House race. Established voting patterns, high Democratic registration, and limited Republican infrastructure in the area have kept the seat out of competitive reach, with recent candidate filings showing no significant shifts in that dynamic. Market pricing accounts for these structural factors while incorporating midterm national trends. Scenarios that could realistically alter the odds remain limited to late developments such as an unexpected candidate withdrawal, a major scandal affecting the frontrunner, or court-ordered boundary changes before the general election.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoIL-04 Vencedor da eleição da casa
IL-04 Vencedor da eleição da casa
$45,542 Vol.
$45,542 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Democrata
96%
Partido Republicano
3%
$45,542 Vol.
$45,542 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Democrata
$31,088 Vol.
96%
Partido Republicano
$14,454 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Illinois 4th congressional district's deep Democratic partisan lean, rooted in its Chicago urban core and surrounding suburbs, drives the current trader consensus favoring a Democratic outcome in the House race. Established voting patterns, high Democratic registration, and limited Republican infrastructure in the area have kept the seat out of competitive reach, with recent candidate filings showing no significant shifts in that dynamic. Market pricing accounts for these structural factors while incorporating midterm national trends. Scenarios that could realistically alter the odds remain limited to late developments such as an unexpected candidate withdrawal, a major scandal affecting the frontrunner, or court-ordered boundary changes before the general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado Aberto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
Volume
$45,542Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Illinois 4th congressional district's deep Democratic partisan lean, rooted in its Chicago urban core and surrounding suburbs, drives the current trader consensus favoring a Democratic outcome in the House race. Established voting patterns, high Democratic registration, and limited Republican infrastructure in the area have kept the seat out of competitive reach, with recent candidate filings showing no significant shifts in that dynamic. Market pricing accounts for these structural factors while incorporating midterm national trends. Scenarios that could realistically alter the odds remain limited to late developments such as an unexpected candidate withdrawal, a major scandal affecting the frontrunner, or court-ordered boundary changes before the general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$45,542Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Illinois 4th congressional district's deep Democratic partisan lean, rooted in its Chicago urban core and surrounding suburbs, drives the current trader consensus favoring a Democratic outcome in the House race. Established voting patterns, high Democratic registration, and limited Republican infrastructure in the area have kept the seat out of competitive reach, with recent candidate filings showing no significant shifts in that dynamic. Market pricing accounts for these structural factors while incorporating midterm national trends. Scenarios that could realistically alter the odds remain limited to late developments such as an unexpected candidate withdrawal, a major scandal affecting the frontrunner, or court-ordered boundary changes before the general election.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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