Iran's longstanding position that uranium enrichment on its soil remains a core national right has kept US-Iran nuclear talks stalled on this central issue despite Oman-mediated rounds and a 2025-2026 memorandum framework. Negotiators have discussed possible temporary suspensions or regional consortium models, yet Iranian officials have repeatedly rejected zero-enrichment demands and signaled no intent to meet a September 30 deadline. IAEA reports show continued enrichment activity and stockpiles, while verification and sanctions-relief gaps further separate the sides. Traders assign 97% probability to "No" because historical patterns, red-line statements, and the short timeline make a binding agreement to end enrichment by that date appear remote, though late diplomatic breakthroughs or major concessions could still shift the outcome.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoO Irã concorda em acabar com o enriquecimento de urânio até 30 de setembro?
O Irã concorda em acabar com o enriquecimento de urânio até 30 de setembro?
Sim
3% chance
$62,705 Vol.
$62,705 Vol.
30 set 2026
Sim
3% chance
$62,705 Vol.
$62,705 Vol.
30 set 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Iran's longstanding position that uranium enrichment on its soil remains a core national right has kept US-Iran nuclear talks stalled on this central issue despite Oman-mediated rounds and a 2025-2026 memorandum framework. Negotiators have discussed possible temporary suspensions or regional consortium models, yet Iranian officials have repeatedly rejected zero-enrichment demands and signaled no intent to meet a September 30 deadline. IAEA reports show continued enrichment activity and stockpiles, while verification and sanctions-relief gaps further separate the sides. Traders assign 97% probability to "No" because historical patterns, red-line statements, and the short timeline make a binding agreement to end enrichment by that date appear remote, though late diplomatic breakthroughs or major concessions could still shift the outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Jul 9, 2026, 9:43 AM ET
Volume
$62,705Data de Término
30 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 9, 2026, 9:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Iran's longstanding position that uranium enrichment on its soil remains a core national right has kept US-Iran nuclear talks stalled on this central issue despite Oman-mediated rounds and a 2025-2026 memorandum framework. Negotiators have discussed possible temporary suspensions or regional consortium models, yet Iranian officials have repeatedly rejected zero-enrichment demands and signaled no intent to meet a September 30 deadline. IAEA reports show continued enrichment activity and stockpiles, while verification and sanctions-relief gaps further separate the sides. Traders assign 97% probability to "No" because historical patterns, red-line statements, and the short timeline make a binding agreement to end enrichment by that date appear remote, though late diplomatic breakthroughs or major concessions could still shift the outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$62,705Data de Término
30 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 9, 2026, 9:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran's longstanding position that uranium enrichment on its soil remains a core national right has kept US-Iran nuclear talks stalled on this central issue despite Oman-mediated rounds and a 2025-2026 memorandum framework. Negotiators have discussed possible temporary suspensions or regional consortium models, yet Iranian officials have repeatedly rejected zero-enrichment demands and signaled no intent to meet a September 30 deadline. IAEA reports show continued enrichment activity and stockpiles, while verification and sanctions-relief gaps further separate the sides. Traders assign 97% probability to "No" because historical patterns, red-line statements, and the short timeline make a binding agreement to end enrichment by that date appear remote, though late diplomatic breakthroughs or major concessions could still shift the outcome.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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