Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February 2026 heavily damaged Iran's key enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, burying much of its stockpile of uranium enriched to 60 percent and disrupting weaponization-related facilities. IAEA verification activities have been curtailed, with inspectors withdrawn and Iran affirming in a June 2026 memorandum that it will not pursue nuclear weapons. U.S. intelligence assessments and expert analyses indicate these operations created substantial technical and detection barriers to rapid breakout, sustaining trader consensus on the low probability of an Iranian nuclear device before 2027. Lingering uncertainty centers on any undetected recovery of materials or accelerated rebuilding at secondary sites that could alter timelines.