Trader consensus at a 99.8% implied probability for “No” reflects the absence of any permanent legislative repeal or executive action that would eliminate Jones Act restrictions on U.S.-built, flagged, and crewed vessels for domestic shipments by June 30. Temporary 60- and 90-day waivers issued in March and April 2026 to ease energy-cost spikes from the Iran conflict have provided short-term relief for oil, gas, and fertilizer transport without altering the underlying statute, which has withstood repeal attempts for over a century amid strong opposition from maritime unions and shipyards. No congressional bills have advanced, underscoring entrenched protectionist interests and the law’s role in supporting domestic shipbuilding capacity. Tail-risk scenarios that could still shift outcomes include an acute, unforeseen supply-chain crisis prompting radical policy reversal before resolution, though the narrow timeline makes such developments increasingly remote.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoSim
$52,403 Vol.
$52,403 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Sim
$52,403 Vol.
$52,403 Vol.
30 jun 2026
The Jones Act of 1920 requires that all goods transported by water between U.S. ports be carried by vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Jones Act is repealed, altered, or invalidated, or new legislation becomes law, such that any of the Jones Act domestic shipping restrictions to vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews are fully removed by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A removal of any of the listed domestic shipping requirements will count. For example, the removal of the domestic shipping requirements for ships to be built in and flagged to the U.S., without the removal of the requirements for those ships to be owned by U.S. citizens to be manned by U.S. crews, would count.
New legislation includes any congressional legislation or any executive order, proclamation, memorandum, or other legally-binding executive action which effectively removes one of the listed Jones Act requirements.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government. If official information is unavailable or unclear, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus at a 99.8% implied probability for “No” reflects the absence of any permanent legislative repeal or executive action that would eliminate Jones Act restrictions on U.S.-built, flagged, and crewed vessels for domestic shipments by June 30. Temporary 60- and 90-day waivers issued in March and April 2026 to ease energy-cost spikes from the Iran conflict have provided short-term relief for oil, gas, and fertilizer transport without altering the underlying statute, which has withstood repeal attempts for over a century amid strong opposition from maritime unions and shipyards. No congressional bills have advanced, underscoring entrenched protectionist interests and the law’s role in supporting domestic shipbuilding capacity. Tail-risk scenarios that could still shift outcomes include an acute, unforeseen supply-chain crisis prompting radical policy reversal before resolution, though the narrow timeline makes such developments increasingly remote.
The Jones Act of 1920 requires that all goods transported by water between U.S. ports be carried by vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Jones Act is repealed, altered, or invalidated, or new legislation becomes law, such that any of the Jones Act domestic shipping restrictions to vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews are fully removed by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A removal of any of the listed domestic shipping requirements will count. For example, the removal of the domestic shipping requirements for ships to be built in and flagged to the U.S., without the removal of the requirements for those ships to be owned by U.S. citizens to be manned by U.S. crews, would count.
New legislation includes any congressional legislation or any executive order, proclamation, memorandum, or other legally-binding executive action which effectively removes one of the listed Jones Act requirements.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government. If official information is unavailable or unclear, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Jones Act is repealed, altered, or invalidated, or new legislation becomes law, such that any of the Jones Act domestic shipping restrictions to vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews are fully removed by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A removal of any of the listed domestic shipping requirements will count. For example, the removal of the domestic shipping requirements for ships to be built in and flagged to the U.S., without the removal of the requirements for those ships to be owned by U.S. citizens to be manned by U.S. crews, would count.
New legislation includes any congressional legislation or any executive order, proclamation, memorandum, or other legally-binding executive action which effectively removes one of the listed Jones Act requirements.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government. If official information is unavailable or unclear, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 9, 2026, 12:50 PM ET
Volume
$52,403Data de Término
30 jun 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 9, 2026, 12:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Jones Act of 1920 requires that all goods transported by water between U.S. ports be carried by vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Jones Act is repealed, altered, or invalidated, or new legislation becomes law, such that any of the Jones Act domestic shipping restrictions to vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews are fully removed by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A removal of any of the listed domestic shipping requirements will count. For example, the removal of the domestic shipping requirements for ships to be built in and flagged to the U.S., without the removal of the requirements for those ships to be owned by U.S. citizens to be manned by U.S. crews, would count.
New legislation includes any congressional legislation or any executive order, proclamation, memorandum, or other legally-binding executive action which effectively removes one of the listed Jones Act requirements.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government. If official information is unavailable or unclear, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus at a 99.8% implied probability for “No” reflects the absence of any permanent legislative repeal or executive action that would eliminate Jones Act restrictions on U.S.-built, flagged, and crewed vessels for domestic shipments by June 30. Temporary 60- and 90-day waivers issued in March and April 2026 to ease energy-cost spikes from the Iran conflict have provided short-term relief for oil, gas, and fertilizer transport without altering the underlying statute, which has withstood repeal attempts for over a century amid strong opposition from maritime unions and shipyards. No congressional bills have advanced, underscoring entrenched protectionist interests and the law’s role in supporting domestic shipbuilding capacity. Tail-risk scenarios that could still shift outcomes include an acute, unforeseen supply-chain crisis prompting radical policy reversal before resolution, though the narrow timeline makes such developments increasingly remote.
The Jones Act of 1920 requires that all goods transported by water between U.S. ports be carried by vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Jones Act is repealed, altered, or invalidated, or new legislation becomes law, such that any of the Jones Act domestic shipping restrictions to vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews are fully removed by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A removal of any of the listed domestic shipping requirements will count. For example, the removal of the domestic shipping requirements for ships to be built in and flagged to the U.S., without the removal of the requirements for those ships to be owned by U.S. citizens to be manned by U.S. crews, would count.
New legislation includes any congressional legislation or any executive order, proclamation, memorandum, or other legally-binding executive action which effectively removes one of the listed Jones Act requirements.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government. If official information is unavailable or unclear, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Jones Act is repealed, altered, or invalidated, or new legislation becomes law, such that any of the Jones Act domestic shipping restrictions to vessels which are built in the U.S., owned by U.S. citizens, flagged to the U.S., and manned by U.S. crews are fully removed by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A removal of any of the listed domestic shipping requirements will count. For example, the removal of the domestic shipping requirements for ships to be built in and flagged to the U.S., without the removal of the requirements for those ships to be owned by U.S. citizens to be manned by U.S. crews, would count.
New legislation includes any congressional legislation or any executive order, proclamation, memorandum, or other legally-binding executive action which effectively removes one of the listed Jones Act requirements.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government. If official information is unavailable or unclear, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$52,403Data de Término
30 jun 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 9, 2026, 12:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus at a 99.8% implied probability for “No” reflects the absence of any permanent legislative repeal or executive action that would eliminate Jones Act restrictions on U.S.-built, flagged, and crewed vessels for domestic shipments by June 30. Temporary 60- and 90-day waivers issued in March and April 2026 to ease energy-cost spikes from the Iran conflict have provided short-term relief for oil, gas, and fertilizer transport without altering the underlying statute, which has withstood repeal attempts for over a century amid strong opposition from maritime unions and shipyards. No congressional bills have advanced, underscoring entrenched protectionist interests and the law’s role in supporting domestic shipbuilding capacity. Tail-risk scenarios that could still shift outcomes include an acute, unforeseen supply-chain crisis prompting radical policy reversal before resolution, though the narrow timeline makes such developments increasingly remote.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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