Kentucky's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican lean, reflected in its R+18 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent GOP performance in recent cycles. Ed Gallrein secured the Republican nomination in the May 2026 primary by defeating incumbent Thomas Massie with backing from President Trump and substantial outside spending. This outcome positions Gallrein as the clear general-election favorite against Democratic nominee Melissa Strange ahead of the November 3 contest. Trader consensus at 92.5% for the Republican reflects these structural advantages and the absence of competitive polling or fundraising signals favoring the challenger. Potential shifts could arise from an unforeseen scandal, health issue, or sharp national political realignment before election day.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoVencedor da eleição da casa KY-04
Vencedor da eleição da casa KY-04
$34,302 Vol.
$34,302 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Partido Republicano
93%
Partido Democrata
8%
$34,302 Vol.
$34,302 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Partido Republicano
$24,877 Vol.
93%
Partido Democrata
$9,426 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Kentucky's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican lean, reflected in its R+18 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent GOP performance in recent cycles. Ed Gallrein secured the Republican nomination in the May 2026 primary by defeating incumbent Thomas Massie with backing from President Trump and substantial outside spending. This outcome positions Gallrein as the clear general-election favorite against Democratic nominee Melissa Strange ahead of the November 3 contest. Trader consensus at 92.5% for the Republican reflects these structural advantages and the absence of competitive polling or fundraising signals favoring the challenger. Potential shifts could arise from an unforeseen scandal, health issue, or sharp national political realignment before election day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado Aberto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$34,302Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Kentucky's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican lean, reflected in its R+18 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent GOP performance in recent cycles. Ed Gallrein secured the Republican nomination in the May 2026 primary by defeating incumbent Thomas Massie with backing from President Trump and substantial outside spending. This outcome positions Gallrein as the clear general-election favorite against Democratic nominee Melissa Strange ahead of the November 3 contest. Trader consensus at 92.5% for the Republican reflects these structural advantages and the absence of competitive polling or fundraising signals favoring the challenger. Potential shifts could arise from an unforeseen scandal, health issue, or sharp national political realignment before election day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$34,302Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Kentucky's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican lean, reflected in its R+18 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent GOP performance in recent cycles. Ed Gallrein secured the Republican nomination in the May 2026 primary by defeating incumbent Thomas Massie with backing from President Trump and substantial outside spending. This outcome positions Gallrein as the clear general-election favorite against Democratic nominee Melissa Strange ahead of the November 3 contest. Trader consensus at 92.5% for the Republican reflects these structural advantages and the absence of competitive polling or fundraising signals favoring the challenger. Potential shifts could arise from an unforeseen scandal, health issue, or sharp national political realignment before election day.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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