France's hung parliament since the 2024 legislative elections has produced repeated instability for minority governments, with Sébastien Lecornu appointed prime minister in September 2025 after prior premiers fell on budget disputes. He briefly resigned in October 2025 amid coalition partner defections and no-confidence threats before reappointment, then survived two no-confidence motions in January 2026 after invoking Article 49.3 to pass the 2026 budget without a vote. Trader sentiment reflects the narrow path to survival in a divided assembly where left and right blocs can align against the government, balanced against Lecornu's demonstrated ability to secure passage of key legislation and Macron's continued backing. Potential catalysts include future fiscal fights, procedural votes, or presidential decisions on cabinet changes before the 2027 term ends.