**Current ensemble forecasts from the Finnish Meteorological Institute, ECMWF, and other models indicate a minimum temperature in Helsinki on August 27 near 11–13 °C under building high pressure, light variable winds, and partly clear skies that permit moderate nocturnal radiative cooling.** Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 10–11 °C because small differences in cloud cover, dew-point depression, and boundary-layer mixing can shift the overnight low by 1–2 °C; stronger northerly flow or increased low-level moisture would suppress cooling and favor the 12–13 °C outcomes, while clearer, drier conditions could push readings toward 9–10 °C. Historical climatology places the late-August average minimum near 12 °C, so the market-implied distribution reflects both model spread and the narrow resolution window before the next forecast update.