The closely matched odds around 25–27°C reflect substantial uncertainty in overnight radiative cooling under the southwest monsoon, which continues to dominate Luzon weather patterns. Persistent cloud cover, scattered showers, and high humidity from the habagat limit daytime heat buildup while suppressing clear-sky heat loss at night, anchoring minimum temperatures near the long-term August average of 24–26°C recorded at PAGASA stations. Recent model runs show sensitivity to rain timing and intensity on the 25th–26th, with any breaks in cloudiness potentially allowing a dip toward 24°C or sustained moisture holding readings at 27°C. Traders are weighing these variables ahead of the next PAGASA update.