Recent Q2 2026 GDP data showed a 1.5% quarter-over-quarter rebound from the prior contraction, supported by gains across primary, secondary, and services sectors, yet 2026 full-year consensus forecasts from institutions such as BBVA Research and Vanguard remain anchored near 1.2–1.4% amid subdued domestic demand and private investment. Persistent USMCA renegotiation uncertainty beyond the July deadline and cautious business sentiment continue to weigh on capital formation and near-term activity, while Banxico’s steady 6.5% policy rate and easing inflation provide limited additional stimulus. With Q3 still unfolding, the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities across the 1.0–2.5% range reflects these offsetting dynamics, where sustained industrial and services momentum could support the upper end of the leading outcomes while renewed trade frictions or softer consumer spending could shift outcomes lower.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado1.5-2.0% 34%
1.0-1.5% 32%
2.0-2.5% 25%
2.5-3.0% 10%
$12,342 Vol.
$12,342 Vol.
30 out 2026
<0.5%
3%
0.5-1.0%
9%
1.0-1.5%
28%
1.5-2.0%
34%
2.0-2.5%
25%
2.5-3.0%
10%
3.0-3.5%
4%
3.5%+
<1%
1.5-2.0% 34%
1.0-1.5% 32%
2.0-2.5% 25%
2.5-3.0% 10%
$12,342 Vol.
$12,342 Vol.
30 out 2026
<0.5%
$256 Vol.
3%
0.5-1.0%
$193 Vol.
9%
1.0-1.5%
$2,231 Vol.
28%
1.5-2.0%
$2,335 Vol.
34%
2.0-2.5%
$6,513 Vol.
25%
2.5-3.0%
$364 Vol.
10%
3.0-3.5%
$248 Vol.
4%
3.5%+
$203 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Q2 2026 GDP data showed a 1.5% quarter-over-quarter rebound from the prior contraction, supported by gains across primary, secondary, and services sectors, yet 2026 full-year consensus forecasts from institutions such as BBVA Research and Vanguard remain anchored near 1.2–1.4% amid subdued domestic demand and private investment. Persistent USMCA renegotiation uncertainty beyond the July deadline and cautious business sentiment continue to weigh on capital formation and near-term activity, while Banxico’s steady 6.5% policy rate and easing inflation provide limited additional stimulus. With Q3 still unfolding, the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities across the 1.0–2.5% range reflects these offsetting dynamics, where sustained industrial and services momentum could support the upper end of the leading outcomes while renewed trade frictions or softer consumer spending could shift outcomes lower.
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Volume
$12,342Data de Término
30 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Q2 2026 GDP data showed a 1.5% quarter-over-quarter rebound from the prior contraction, supported by gains across primary, secondary, and services sectors, yet 2026 full-year consensus forecasts from institutions such as BBVA Research and Vanguard remain anchored near 1.2–1.4% amid subdued domestic demand and private investment. Persistent USMCA renegotiation uncertainty beyond the July deadline and cautious business sentiment continue to weigh on capital formation and near-term activity, while Banxico’s steady 6.5% policy rate and easing inflation provide limited additional stimulus. With Q3 still unfolding, the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities across the 1.0–2.5% range reflects these offsetting dynamics, where sustained industrial and services momentum could support the upper end of the leading outcomes while renewed trade frictions or softer consumer spending could shift outcomes lower.
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$12,342Data de Término
30 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Q2 2026 GDP data showed a 1.5% quarter-over-quarter rebound from the prior contraction, supported by gains across primary, secondary, and services sectors, yet 2026 full-year consensus forecasts from institutions such as BBVA Research and Vanguard remain anchored near 1.2–1.4% amid subdued domestic demand and private investment. Persistent USMCA renegotiation uncertainty beyond the July deadline and cautious business sentiment continue to weigh on capital formation and near-term activity, while Banxico’s steady 6.5% policy rate and easing inflation provide limited additional stimulus. With Q3 still unfolding, the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities across the 1.0–2.5% range reflects these offsetting dynamics, where sustained industrial and services momentum could support the upper end of the leading outcomes while renewed trade frictions or softer consumer spending could shift outcomes lower.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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