Democratic incumbent Laura Gillen holds a commanding position in New York’s 4th congressional district ahead of the November 3 general election, reflected in trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 87.5% versus 13.5% for the Republican. Gillen flipped the Nassau County-based seat in 2024 by defeating one-term Republican Anthony D’Esposito and faces limited primary opposition, while Republican nominee Jeanine Driscoll secured her nomination in June with over 90% of the vote. The district’s modest Democratic enrollment edge and recent swing dynamics support the current implied probability, with nonpartisan ratings classifying the race as lean or likely Democratic. No major late-cycle shifts have altered this positioning since the primaries.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoVencedor da eleição para a Câmara de NY-04
Vencedor da eleição para a Câmara de NY-04
NOVO
NOVO
3 nov 2026
Partido Democrata
87%
Partido Republicano
14%
NOVO
NOVO
3 nov 2026
Partido Democrata
$1,549 Vol.
87%
Partido Republicano
$967 Vol.
14%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic incumbent Laura Gillen holds a commanding position in New York’s 4th congressional district ahead of the November 3 general election, reflected in trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 87.5% versus 13.5% for the Republican. Gillen flipped the Nassau County-based seat in 2024 by defeating one-term Republican Anthony D’Esposito and faces limited primary opposition, while Republican nominee Jeanine Driscoll secured her nomination in June with over 90% of the vote. The district’s modest Democratic enrollment edge and recent swing dynamics support the current implied probability, with nonpartisan ratings classifying the race as lean or likely Democratic. No major late-cycle shifts have altered this positioning since the primaries.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado Aberto: Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ET
Volume
$2,516Data de Término
4 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic incumbent Laura Gillen holds a commanding position in New York’s 4th congressional district ahead of the November 3 general election, reflected in trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 87.5% versus 13.5% for the Republican. Gillen flipped the Nassau County-based seat in 2024 by defeating one-term Republican Anthony D’Esposito and faces limited primary opposition, while Republican nominee Jeanine Driscoll secured her nomination in June with over 90% of the vote. The district’s modest Democratic enrollment edge and recent swing dynamics support the current implied probability, with nonpartisan ratings classifying the race as lean or likely Democratic. No major late-cycle shifts have altered this positioning since the primaries.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$2,516Data de Término
4 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Democratic incumbent Laura Gillen holds a commanding position in New York’s 4th congressional district ahead of the November 3 general election, reflected in trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at 87.5% versus 13.5% for the Republican. Gillen flipped the Nassau County-based seat in 2024 by defeating one-term Republican Anthony D’Esposito and faces limited primary opposition, while Republican nominee Jeanine Driscoll secured her nomination in June with over 90% of the vote. The district’s modest Democratic enrollment edge and recent swing dynamics support the current implied probability, with nonpartisan ratings classifying the race as lean or likely Democratic. No major late-cycle shifts have altered this positioning since the primaries.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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