Large structural deficits, driven by mandatory spending on entitlements, rising net interest costs exceeding $1 trillion annually, and defense outlays, continue to push gross federal debt and debt held by the public higher through 2026. CBO’s February 2026 baseline projects debt held by the public reaching 101 percent of GDP by year-end 2026 before climbing further, with the annual deficit at $1.9 trillion and widening thereafter. The July 2025 reconciliation act added trillions to cumulative deficits while suspending the debt limit at $41.1 trillion, delaying near-term constraints but locking in higher borrowing. Tariff revenue provides modest offset, yet no enacted measures produce primary surpluses or debt reduction in the current fiscal year. Absent major new legislation before the 2026 midterm cycle or 2027 appropriations process, the trajectory points to uninterrupted increases, with the next debt-limit deadline projected for late 2027.