President Trump's continued backing for Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has anchored trader expectations that he will remain in the role through June 30, reinforced by Hegseth's recent consolidation of authority at the Pentagon and his active testimony before congressional committees on the fiscal year 2027 budget request. As the administration advances its national defense strategy and military priorities, institutional support from the White House and Senate Republican leadership has limited visible pressure for a cabinet change. Historical patterns show that cabinet secretaries in aligned administrations rarely depart so soon after confirmation without major scandals or policy reversals. While late-breaking developments such as unforeseen legal findings, health events, or abrupt shifts in presidential priorities could still prompt a resignation or dismissal before the deadline, current political dynamics point to stability in the near term.