Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth remains firmly in place through ongoing congressional engagements and policy execution on Iran-related matters and the fiscal 2027 defense budget, with no public signals of resignation, removal, or presidential dissatisfaction emerging in recent weeks. His May congressional testimony on military strategy and appropriations, alongside routine Pentagon announcements on force posture and international meetings, reinforces trader expectations that he will continue in the role past June 30. High implied probability for retention reflects the absence of acute triggers such as major scandals, confirmation reversals, or abrupt leadership shifts. Realistic scenarios that could still alter this outcome include a sudden health event, escalation in active conflicts prompting a cabinet shakeup, or internal Pentagon controversies intensifying to the point of formal action by the White House.