Trader sentiment for Hong Kong’s June 2026 rainfall heavily favors totals above 500 mm, reflecting the strong influence of the southwest monsoon and the onset of typhoon season, which frequently deliver intense convective bursts and tropical cyclone-related downpours in the latter half of the month. Despite the Hong Kong Observatory’s late-May outlook for normal to below-normal rainfall across June–August, historical data show June averages near 450 mm with wide year-to-year variability driven by storm tracks and monsoon surges. With roughly half the month elapsed, any early-month shortfalls can be rapidly offset by organized systems, pushing implied probabilities toward the upper bins. Key upcoming catalysts include updated Hong Kong Observatory forecasts, National Hurricane Center or Joint Typhoon Warning Center tropical cyclone guidance, and real-time rainfall accumulations that could shift model consensus on intensification or steering.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoPrecipitation in Hong Kong in June?
Precipitation in Hong Kong in June?
500mm+ 56%
425-450mm 9%
400-425mm 6%
450-475mm 6%
NOVO
NOVO
30 jun 2026
<350mm
4%
350-375mm
12%
375-400mm
6%
400-425mm
6%
425-450mm
16%
450-475mm
6%
475-500mm
5%
500mm+
56%
500mm+ 56%
425-450mm 9%
400-425mm 6%
450-475mm 6%
NOVO
NOVO
30 jun 2026
<350mm
$449 Vol.
4%
350-375mm
$505 Vol.
12%
375-400mm
$395 Vol.
6%
400-425mm
$277 Vol.
6%
425-450mm
$315 Vol.
16%
450-475mm
$373 Vol.
6%
475-500mm
$451 Vol.
5%
500mm+
$751 Vol.
56%
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between June 1 and June 30, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in June 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If the relevant data is not available by September 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader sentiment for Hong Kong’s June 2026 rainfall heavily favors totals above 500 mm, reflecting the strong influence of the southwest monsoon and the onset of typhoon season, which frequently deliver intense convective bursts and tropical cyclone-related downpours in the latter half of the month. Despite the Hong Kong Observatory’s late-May outlook for normal to below-normal rainfall across June–August, historical data show June averages near 450 mm with wide year-to-year variability driven by storm tracks and monsoon surges. With roughly half the month elapsed, any early-month shortfalls can be rapidly offset by organized systems, pushing implied probabilities toward the upper bins. Key upcoming catalysts include updated Hong Kong Observatory forecasts, National Hurricane Center or Joint Typhoon Warning Center tropical cyclone guidance, and real-time rainfall accumulations that could shift model consensus on intensification or steering.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between June 1 and June 30, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in June 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If the relevant data is not available by September 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in June 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If the relevant data is not available by September 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: May 27, 2026, 4:07 PM ET
Volume
$3,516Data de Término
30 jun 2026Mercado Aberto
May 27, 2026, 4:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between June 1 and June 30, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in June 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If the relevant data is not available by September 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader sentiment for Hong Kong’s June 2026 rainfall heavily favors totals above 500 mm, reflecting the strong influence of the southwest monsoon and the onset of typhoon season, which frequently deliver intense convective bursts and tropical cyclone-related downpours in the latter half of the month. Despite the Hong Kong Observatory’s late-May outlook for normal to below-normal rainfall across June–August, historical data show June averages near 450 mm with wide year-to-year variability driven by storm tracks and monsoon surges. With roughly half the month elapsed, any early-month shortfalls can be rapidly offset by organized systems, pushing implied probabilities toward the upper bins. Key upcoming catalysts include updated Hong Kong Observatory forecasts, National Hurricane Center or Joint Typhoon Warning Center tropical cyclone guidance, and real-time rainfall accumulations that could shift model consensus on intensification or steering.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between June 1 and June 30, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in June 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If the relevant data is not available by September 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in June 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If the relevant data is not available by September 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$3,516Data de Término
30 jun 2026Mercado Aberto
May 27, 2026, 4:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment for Hong Kong’s June 2026 rainfall heavily favors totals above 500 mm, reflecting the strong influence of the southwest monsoon and the onset of typhoon season, which frequently deliver intense convective bursts and tropical cyclone-related downpours in the latter half of the month. Despite the Hong Kong Observatory’s late-May outlook for normal to below-normal rainfall across June–August, historical data show June averages near 450 mm with wide year-to-year variability driven by storm tracks and monsoon surges. With roughly half the month elapsed, any early-month shortfalls can be rapidly offset by organized systems, pushing implied probabilities toward the upper bins. Key upcoming catalysts include updated Hong Kong Observatory forecasts, National Hurricane Center or Joint Typhoon Warning Center tropical cyclone guidance, and real-time rainfall accumulations that could shift model consensus on intensification or steering.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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