Vladimir Putin’s position as Russia’s president rests on firm constitutional footing after 2020 amendments reset term limits, enabling him to serve until 2036, with his current mandate extending through 2030. No presidential election or formal succession process is scheduled before late 2026, and recent public statements indicate he views extended tenure as an open question rather than an imminent concern. Elite consolidation, high reported approval ratings, and control over security structures have limited observable challenges despite the Ukraine conflict’s strains and domestic economic pressures. State Duma elections set for September 2026 are expected to reinforce the existing power balance rather than alter leadership. Traders’ strong “No” consensus aligns with the absence of credible near-term exit mechanisms such as resignation, incapacity, or elite-driven transition within the resolution window.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoRussian State Poll Confirms Continued Decline in Putin's Approval Ratings
June 30, 2027 dips to 18%1%
A subsequent poll published on July 10 showed a further decline in Putin's approval and trust ratings. The acknowledgment of growing societal discontent by a state-owned polling center was linked to intensifying gasoline shortages caused by Ukrainian drone strikes.
Putin's approval ratings continue to fall amid ongoing military and political pressures
Polling data released on July 10 showed a continued decline in Putin's approval and trust ratings in early July 2026, reflecting growing public dissatisfaction amid military setbacks and political challenges. This contributed to sustained low market confidence in his long-term presidency.
Poll shows slight decline in Putin’s approval amid fuel shortages
December 31, 2026 dips to 9%4%
A Russian state-owned poll published on July 10 indicated a small drop in Putin’s approval and trust ratings, reflecting growing public dissatisfaction linked to worsening fuel shortages. Despite this, no political moves toward resignation or removal were reported, maintaining market skepticism about his exit.
Putin’s approval and trust ratings continue to decline
June 30, 2027 dips to 17%2%
Polling data from July 10 showed Putin’s trust and approval ratings fell for a second consecutive week, indicating sustained domestic dissatisfaction amid ongoing challenges, which influenced further market price declines for Putin’s continued presidency.
Putin rejects peace talks despite intensified Ukraine strikes
On July 9, sources close to the Kremlin reported Putin's rejection of peace negotiations with Kyiv despite recent Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian infrastructure. This stance indicated his commitment to remain in power and continue the conflict, keeping market exit odds low.
Putin attends Kremlin meeting amid ongoing Ukraine war and NATO tensions
December 31, 2026 dips to 9%1%
On July 7, Putin chaired a Security Council meeting in Moscow as Russia faced military and political challenges. His continued active leadership and public presence maintained market confidence in his presidency, suppressing exit probabilities for all near-term dates.
Ukraine delivers final peace proposal warning of regime collapse if rejected
Ukraine presented a final peace proposal to the Kremlin, warning that rejection could lead to regime collapse. This heightened pressure on Putin's government amid military and economic challenges, influencing market perceptions of his political stability and exit probability.
Ukraine intensifies strikes on Russian oil refineries worsening fuel crisis
On July 6, Ukrainian forces struck major Russian oil refineries, including the Slavneft-Yanos refinery, causing significant damage and exacerbating Russia's fuel shortages. This deepening crisis increased domestic pressure on Putin but did not lead to any immediate political change, reflected in continued low market odds for his exit.
Putin chairs Security Council meeting amid ongoing war and NATO tensions
December 31, 2026 dips to 9%1%
Putin chaired a Security Council meeting in Moscow on July 1, signaling continued active leadership despite pressures from the war in Ukraine and NATO concerns. This event reinforced perceptions of Putin’s firm grip on power, limiting market expectations of his imminent departure.
Putin faces mounting economic and military pressures amid Ukraine conflict
Reports on July 6 highlighted Putin's precarious position due to economic decline, military stagnation, and declining public support, increasing market speculation about his political future but no immediate removal signs.
Putin faces mounting internal and external pressures amid Ukraine conflict
June 30, 2027 drops to 17%6%
Putin gave an interview addressing military and economic challenges, including fuel shortages and ongoing Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian infrastructure. These pressures intensified speculation about his political stability, contributing to further declines in market prices for his continued presidency.
Putin chairs Security Council meeting amid ongoing Ukraine conflict
June 30, 2027 plunges to 17%19%
Putin chaired a Security Council meeting in Moscow as the war in Ukraine continued with slow Russian advances and Ukrainian resistance. This demonstrated Putin's continued active leadership and control, reducing market expectations of his imminent departure.
Trump holds separate calls with Putin and Zelenskyy amid war tensions
U.S. President Donald Trump held separate calls with Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Zelenskyy, offering to help find a solution to the war, which briefly influenced market sentiment about potential political changes in Russia.
Putin holds lengthy call with Donald Trump discussing Ukraine war
On July 5, Putin and former US President Donald Trump held a nearly 90-minute phone call focusing on the Ukraine conflict and potential diplomatic solutions. This high-profile diplomatic engagement briefly influenced market sentiment but did not indicate any imminent change in Putin’s presidency.
Putin holds 90-minute call with Donald Trump discussing Ukraine war
June 30, 2027 plunges to 17%19%
On July 5, Putin engaged in a lengthy call with former US President Donald Trump, who offered assistance to end the Ukraine conflict. This diplomatic engagement suggested Putin's continued active role in international affairs, reinforcing market confidence in his ongoing presidency.
Putin and Zelenskyy hold separate calls with former US President Trump
December 31, 2026 dips to 9%1%
Separate calls between Putin and Zelenskyy with Donald Trump underscored ongoing diplomatic efforts and the complex geopolitical environment, maintaining market uncertainty about Putin's political stability.
Putin holds 90-minute phone call with US President Trump discussing Ukraine conflict
June 30, 2027 plunges to 18%18%
On July 5, 2026, Putin and US President Donald Trump held a lengthy phone conversation focusing on the Ukraine war and potential diplomatic resolutions. This diplomatic engagement was seen as a sign of ongoing efforts to manage the conflict without leadership change, contributing to a decline in market odds for Putin's exit by mid-2027.
Putin holds 90-minute call with Donald Trump discussing Ukraine war
On July 4, Putin spoke with former US President Donald Trump for nearly 90 minutes, with Trump offering to help end the Ukraine war. This diplomatic engagement was noted but did not signal any change in Putin's presidency, thus having limited impact on market odds for his exit.
Putin exaggerates Russian military gains in staged meeting to bolster image
On July 3 and 4, Putin and Russian military commanders made exaggerated claims of territorial gains in Ukraine, attempting to create a narrative of success despite battlefield realities. This effort aimed to maintain domestic support but highlighted the disconnect between official statements and facts, influencing market perceptions of Putin's political strength.
Putin and Trump hold 90-minute call with Trump offering to help end Ukraine war
The call between Putin and former US President Trump, where Trump offered assistance to end the Ukraine war, was seen as a diplomatic engagement but did not signal any immediate change in Putin's presidency, thus having limited impact on market prices.
Putin and Trump hold 90-minute phone call discussing Ukraine war
June 30, 2027 dips to 23%2%
Russian President Vladimir Putin and former US President Donald Trump spoke for nearly 90 minutes, with Trump offering to help end the Ukraine war. This diplomatic engagement was seen as a significant development but did not indicate any immediate change in Putin’s presidency, thus having limited impact on the market.
Forbes reports on $400,000 bet predicting Putin's ouster by end of 2026
Media coverage of the large prediction market bet brought attention to the possibility of Putin's removal, potentially influencing public and market perceptions. However, no official developments occurred to confirm this outcome.
Putin makes staged frontline visit, claims military advances in Ukraine
June 30, 2027 plunges to 19%17%
Putin’s July 4 visit to a military installation and his public claims of progress in Ukraine were aimed at bolstering his image as a strong leader despite battlefield setbacks. This helped maintain market confidence in his presidency continuing through 2026.
Putin's approval rating drops sharply amid war fatigue and economic strain
December 31, 2026 dips to 10%4%
State pollster VTsIOM reported Putin's approval rating fell by 3.5 percentage points to 66.9%, the steepest weekly decline since the war began, reflecting growing public dissatisfaction amid economic hardship and ongoing conflict. This decline contributed to market uncertainty about Putin's tenure.
Putin approval rating drops sharply after Ukrainian drone campaign
July 31, 2026 drops to 0%9%
Putin's approval rating fell by 3.5 percent to 66.9 percent in late June 2026 after weeks of steady decline, marking the steepest decline since at least February 2022, which significantly impacted market confidence in his leadership.
Poll Shows Steepest Drop in Putin's Approval Rating Since Start of War
June 30, 2027 plunges to 17%19%
State pollster VTsIOM published results showing Putin's approval and trust ratings suffered their sharpest weekly decline since February 2022, reflecting public frustration over fuel shortages.
Putin and Trump hold 90-minute call discussing Ukraine war
On July 3, Putin spoke with former US President Donald Trump for nearly 90 minutes, with Trump offering to help end the Ukraine war, reflecting ongoing diplomatic engagement but no indication of Putin's removal, affecting market sentiment.
Putin dismisses fuel shortages amid intensified Ukraine conflict
December 31, 2026 dips to 9%1%
On July 3, Putin publicly downplayed fuel shortages in Russia despite ongoing Ukrainian drone strikes on oil refineries, signaling his intent to continue the conflict. This reinforced perceptions of his political resilience, contributing to low market odds for his exit in the near term.
State Poll Shows Steepest Decline in Putin's Trust and Approval Ratings Since 2022
June 30, 2027 plunges to 18%18%
A poll published by the state-owned VTsIOM showed Putin's approval rating falling by 3.5 percent and trust falling by 3.4 percent. This marked the steepest decline in his trust rating in over four years, reflecting growing societal discontent amid domestic fuel shortages.
Putin shrugs off fuel shortages as he intensifies attacks on Ukraine
December 31, 2026 dips to 10%3%
On July 3, 2026, Putin downplayed the severity of fuel shortages in Russia despite ongoing Ukrainian drone attacks, while simultaneously ramping up military operations in Ukraine. This stance maintained perceptions of his control but also reflected ongoing domestic challenges, contributing to a slight decline in market confidence for Putin's continued presidency by late 2026.
Anonymous trader bets nearly $500K Putin will exit presidency by end of 2026
A large bet by an anonymous Polymarket trader on Putin leaving office by December 31, 2026, drew media attention and reflected significant speculative interest in a potential leadership change. Despite the bet, market prices remained low, indicating skepticism about the likelihood of Putin's early exit within the year.
Putin’s approval rating sharply falls amid fuel crisis and war setbacks
December 31, 2026 dips to 9%3%
Russian polling data released on July 3 showed a significant drop in Putin’s approval and trust ratings, the steepest since early 2022, amid worsening fuel shortages and military setbacks. This decline reflected growing public dissatisfaction but did not translate into immediate political change.
Anonymous Polymarket trader places nearly $500,000 bet on Putin's exit by end of 2026
December 31, 2026 rises to 10%1%
A large wager on the prediction market indicated significant speculative interest in Putin's removal by December 31, 2026, reflecting market participants' perception of increased risk despite no official signals. This bet influenced market prices, especially for the December 31, 2026 outcome.
Putin claims Russian forces seized Kostyantynivka despite contrary evidence
September 30, 2026 dips to 4%3%
Putin publicly asserted military gains in Ukraine that were contradicted by independent sources, highlighting possible desperation and weakening credibility. This event coincided with a further decline in market confidence about his continued presidency, especially for near-term exit dates.
Retired General Leonid Ivashov renews public call for Putin's resignation
December 31, 2026 rises to 13%3%
Retired Colonel-General Leonid Ivashov, head of the All-Russian Officers Assembly, publicly criticized Putin's Ukraine war policy and called for his resignation, marking a rare and significant dissent from a high-ranking military figure. This event increased market speculation about Putin's political vulnerability, causing a temporary rise in the probability of his exit by December 31, 2026.
Putin’s approval rating falls sharply amid military setbacks
June 30, 2027 plunges to 17%19%
A poll published on July 3 showed Putin’s approval rating dropped by 3.5% to 66.9% and trust fell by 3.4% to 73.3% between June 22 and 28, reflecting increased public discontent and contributing to a decline in market odds for Putin remaining president.
Putin’s approval rating falls sharply amid ongoing Ukraine conflict
December 31, 2026 dips to 10%3%
On July 3, 2026, polls showed a notable decline in Putin’s approval and trust ratings, reflecting growing public dissatisfaction amid the protracted Ukraine war. This contributed to a slight increase in market speculation about his potential exit by the end of 2026, causing minor price fluctuations.
Anonymous Polymarket user places $400,000 bet on Putin leaving office by end of 2026
December 31, 2026 rises to 10%1%
An anonymous user on the Polymarket prediction market placed a large wager predicting that Vladimir Putin would no longer be President of Russia by December 31, 2026. This high-stakes bet increased market attention and speculation about Putin's potential exit, influencing price movements in the market.
Fuel shortages worsen in Russia as officials ration supplies amid Ukrainian strikes
By early July 2026, fuel shortages in Russia deepened due to ongoing Ukrainian attacks on refineries, leading to rationing and public frustration. This crisis increased domestic pressure on Putin's administration but did not translate into credible threats to his presidency within the market's timeframe.
Russia Launches Massive Retaliatory Missile and Drone Attack on Kyiv
December 31, 2026 dips to 12%2%
Russia launched an exceptionally deadly 11-hour bombardment on Kyiv, killing at least 22 people, in what Moscow declared was direct retaliation for Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil facilities.
Putin chairs Security Council meeting amid ongoing war and domestic challenges
August 31, 2026 dips to 2%4%
On July 1, Putin chaired a Security Council meeting in Moscow, demonstrating continued exercise of presidential authority amid military and economic pressures. This reinforced perceptions of his ongoing control and reduced market speculation about imminent departure.
Putin chairs emergency Security Council meeting amid worsening war situation
July 31, 2026 drops to 0%9%
Putin chaired an emergency meeting at the weekend to address the deteriorating military situation, signaling potential instability in his leadership amid ongoing battlefield challenges.
Large anonymous bet placed on Polymarket predicting Putin's exit by end of 2026
December 31, 2026 jumps to 14%5%
A newcomer to the Polymarket prediction market placed a large wager that Putin would no longer be President by the end of 2026, increasing market attention and speculation about his potential exit, influencing price movements.
Large Polymarket Bets Placed on Vladimir Putin's Downfall by End of 2026
December 31, 2026 rises to 14%1%
A newly created prediction market account placed massive wagers on Polymarket predicting Putin would be out of office by December 31, 2026, driving up the implied probability of his exit.
Putin acknowledges fuel shortages after Ukrainian drone strikes
December 31, 2026 dips to 13%1%
Putin publicly admitted that Ukraine's drone attacks were causing fuel shortages in Russia, signaling growing internal pressures and challenges to his administration. While he denied the shortages were critical, this admission highlighted vulnerabilities that could undermine his political standing, influencing market perceptions of his stability.
Russian veteran Alexander Lunin detained after warning of military mutiny
December 31, 2026 jumps to 14%5%
Alexander Lunin, a former volunteer fighter, publicly warned of possible military mutiny if Putin did not meet with him to address soldier abuses. His detention underscored rare public dissent within military ranks, increasing speculation about Putin's political stability and causing a rise in market prices for his exit by year-end.
Zelensky states Putin demands capture of Donbas by December 31, 2026
December 31, 2026 rises to 12%3%
Ukrainian President Zelensky's statement that Putin set a deadline for capturing Donbas intensified geopolitical tensions and contributed to market speculation about Putin's political survival.
Anonymous Polymarket Trader Wagers Nearly $500,000 on Putin's Exit by End of 2026
December 31, 2026 rises to 14%2%
An anonymous trader under the username ZnotluvuiSamez purchased over 3.6 million 'Yes' shares, betting that Putin would be out of office by December 31, 2026. This massive high-stakes wager drew widespread media coverage and temporarily drove up the volume and odds for the 2026 contract.
Putin publicly supports ruling party ahead of September elections
December 31, 2026 dips to 12%2%
On June 29, 2026, Putin spoke at a party convention in Moscow, endorsing the electoral process as a test of strength for the political system. This reinforced expectations that the September 2026 State Duma elections would maintain the current power balance, reducing near-term chances of leadership change.
Putin and military commanders exaggerate territorial gains in Ukraine
June 30, 2027 plunges to 17%19%
On June 29, Putin and Russian military officials made inflated claims of territorial advances in Ukraine, attempting to bolster domestic support despite battlefield setbacks, influencing market perceptions of his political stability.
Putin addresses United Russia party convention ahead of September elections
Putin spoke at the United Russia party convention, framing the upcoming legislative elections as a test of the political system's strength, reinforcing his position but also highlighting the political context ahead of the September 2026 elections.
Putin publicly acknowledges severe fuel shortages amid Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries
December 31, 2026 rises to 10%1%
On June 28, 2026, Vladimir Putin admitted to fuel shortages in Russia caused by Ukrainian drone attacks on oil refineries, which intensified public frustration and economic difficulties. This admission highlighted growing domestic challenges but did not signal any political instability or leadership change, resulting in only minor market impact on the probability of Putin leaving office by year-end.
Putin delivers speech reinforcing military resolve amid declining battlefield performance
December 31, 2026 rises to 12%3%
In a speech to the United Russia Party Congress, Putin projected strength and military resolve despite Russia's declining battlefield performance in Ukraine. The speech aimed to bolster domestic support but underscored ongoing challenges, contributing to cautious market sentiment about his tenure.
Putin admits Ukrainian drone attacks caused Russian fuel shortages
July 31, 2026 drops to 0%9%
Putin publicly acknowledged that Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil refineries had caused domestic fuel shortages and rationing, intensifying public frustration and economic difficulties, which contributed to market price movement.
Putin admits fuel shortages amid intensified Ukrainian drone strikes
December 31, 2026 rises to 12%3%
Putin acknowledged fuel shortages caused by Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, signaling domestic challenges but downplaying their criticality, which contributed to market uncertainty about his political strength.
Putin publicly acknowledges fuel shortages caused by Ukrainian drone strikes
December 31, 2026 rises to 10%1%
Putin admitted that Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil refineries caused significant fuel shortages and rationing, highlighting domestic vulnerabilities and increasing speculation about his political stability, impacting market prices for the December 31, 2026 outcome.
Putin delivers speech at United Russia party congress projecting strength
Putin's June 28 speech to the United Russia party congress emphasized Russia's military resolve and framed victory in Ukraine as inevitable, aiming to bolster domestic support and quell doubts about his leadership. This reassured markets about his political stability, limiting upward price movement for his exit.
Putin ties himself to United Russia party ahead of September elections
On June 28, Putin publicly associated himself with the United Russia party, reinforcing his political control ahead of the September 2026 State Duma elections. This move was intended to project strength and popular support, reducing market speculation about his imminent departure and stabilizing prices for later exit dates.
Putin admits fuel shortages caused by Ukrainian drone attacks
December 31, 2026 rises to 13%4%
On June 28, 2026, Vladimir Putin publicly acknowledged that Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil refineries had caused domestic fuel shortages and rationing. This admission highlighted the domestic strain of the ongoing war and increased public frustration, which slightly raised speculation about Putin's political stability, impacting the December 31, 2026 market outcome.
Putin ties himself publicly to United Russia ahead of September elections
December 31, 2026 jumps to 14%5%
On June 28, Putin addressed the United Russia party congress, formally linking himself to the party for the first time since 2007. This move was intended to consolidate his political base ahead of the September 2026 State Duma elections and project strength despite military setbacks. The speech reinforced expectations that Putin would maintain power through the elections, causing a decline in market odds for his early departure.
Putin delivers speech reinforcing war resolve ahead of State Duma elections
December 31, 2026 drops to 9%5%
Putin's June 28 speech at the United Russia Congress projected strength and military resolve, aiming to consolidate support ahead of the September 2026 State Duma elections, which were expected to reinforce his power, thereby reducing market expectations of his early exit.
Putin addresses fuel shortages, downplays crisis in Moscow interview
September 30, 2026 dips to 4%3%
Following Ukrainian drone strikes on Moscow oil infrastructure, Putin publicly acknowledged fuel shortages but described the situation as not critical and promised swift resolution. This reassured some market participants about his control over domestic issues, tempering expectations of his removal.
Putin Admits Ukraine Drone Strikes Are Creating Fuel Shortages and Problems in Russia
December 31, 2026 rises to 13%4%
In a rare public admission of wartime setbacks, Russian President Vladimir Putin acknowledged that Ukrainian drone strikes on energy infrastructure have caused fuel shortages and queues at petrol stations.
Ukrainian drone strikes cause fuel shortages, creating political crisis for Putin
December 31, 2026 rises to 12%3%
Ukrainian drone and missile strikes knocked out up to 28% of Russia's refining capacity, including Moscow's main refinery, leading to fuel shortages and a serious political crisis for Putin. This heightened doubts about his political stability and contributed to market price declines for his continued presidency.
Putin admits Ukrainian drone strikes causing Russian fuel shortages
December 31, 2026 rises to 13%4%
Putin publicly acknowledged that Ukrainian attacks on oil refineries were creating fuel shortages and rationing in Russia, signaling domestic strain but reaffirming his commitment to continue the war effort. This admission highlighted growing internal challenges but did not indicate any imminent political change, causing some market uncertainty.
Ukrainian drones strike Russian oil refinery amid fuel shortages
December 31, 2026 rises to 13%4%
Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil refineries, including Moscow's main refinery, intensified fuel shortages in Russia, creating a political crisis that put additional pressure on Putin's government and influenced market perceptions of his stability.
Chinese Leader Xi Jinping Reportedly Delivers Ultimatum to Putin in Personal Call
December 31, 2026 rises to 12%2%
Chinese leader Xi Jinping reportedly pressured Vladimir Putin during a personal phone call, signaling a shift from neutrality to direct pressure. This development, combined with domestic political challenges, influenced traders' expectations regarding Putin's long-term political survival.
Putin’s approval rating begins sharp decline after Ukraine’s major strike
December 31, 2026 rises to 13%4%
Following Ukraine’s largest strike on Moscow Oblast, Putin’s approval rating fell from 74% to 69% between June 12 and June 21, signaling growing domestic dissatisfaction and impacting market confidence in his continued presidency through 2026.
Putin's approval rating dips amid military setbacks and fuel shortages
December 31, 2026 rises to 13%4%
In late June 2026, Russian polls showed a decline in Putin's approval and trust ratings, influenced by military challenges in Ukraine and domestic fuel shortages. This contributed to a temporary increase in market speculation about his potential exit by the end of 2026, reflected in a price rise for the December 31, 2026 outcome.
Putin's approval rating sharply falls amid ongoing war and political pressures
December 31, 2026 rises to 12%3%
Polls released in late June showed a significant decline in Putin's approval and trust ratings, reflecting growing domestic dissatisfaction. This contributed to a temporary increase in market odds for his exit by December 31, 2026, as political fragility was perceived to rise.
Putin ties himself publicly to United Russia ahead of September elections
December 31, 2026 rises to 13%4%
On June 26, 2026, Putin formally associated himself with the United Russia party, reinforcing his political control ahead of the September 2026 State Duma elections. This move signaled continuity of leadership and reduced speculation about his imminent departure, contributing to stable or declining odds for his exit by year-end.
France Seizes Russian Shadow Fleet Tanker 'Deliver' in Mediterranean
December 31, 2026 rises to 12%3%
The French Navy intercepted and boarded the shadow fleet tanker 'Deliver' near Sicily, escalating European enforcement of sanctions on Russian energy exports and squeezing Moscow's war funding.
Putin and Trump hold 90-minute phone call discussing Ukraine
The lengthy phone conversation between Putin and US President Trump may have signaled diplomatic shifts, contributing to market speculation about Putin's political future amid ongoing Ukraine conflict.
Putin's expression at memorial sparks renewed health speculation
At Russia's Day of Memory and Sorrow ceremony, Putin's unusually rigid and expressionless face reignited global speculation about his health, fueling doubts about his physical condition and political stability, which influenced market sentiment.
Putin's frail appearance sparks health concerns amid psychological blow theory
Russian President Vladimir Putin appeared increasingly frail in public appearances, fueling speculation about his health and causing some market participants to reassess the likelihood of his continued presidency through 2026. This contributed to a drop in market prices for his continued tenure by late 2026.
Putin appears frail at ASEAN Summit amid health concerns
Russian President Vladimir Putin's increasingly frail appearance at the ASEAN Summit sparked health concerns and speculation about his ability to continue in office, causing some market uncertainty about his tenure.
Putin hosts ASEAN summit, projecting political stability amid challenges
On June 18, Putin made public statements following the Russia-ASEAN Summit, emphasizing ongoing diplomatic and economic cooperation, which helped maintain market confidence in his presidency continuing through 2026.
Putin's health concerns rise after frail appearances and speech issues
Russian President Vladimir Putin appeared increasingly frail during public appearances, including slurred speech and physical symptoms, sparking widespread speculation about his health and ability to continue in office. This raised market uncertainty about his tenure, impacting prices for near-term exit outcomes.
Suspect in killing of Putin critic arrested in Poland
December 31, 2026 jumps to 14%5%
The arrest of a suspect in Poland for the killing of a Russian artist critical of Putin heightened concerns about political stability and dissent within Russia, briefly increasing speculation about Putin's political future and impacting the December 31, 2026 market outcome.
Ukrainian President Zelenskiy offers to meet Putin at G7 summit for peace talks
Zelenskiy publicly proposed talks with Putin at the G7 summit or in the US to end the ongoing war, signaling potential diplomatic engagement but no immediate impact on Putin's presidency. This offer did not lead to any resignation or removal, so market impact was limited.
Putin Announces 32-Hour Orthodox Easter Ceasefire with Ukraine
December 31, 2026 rises to 12%1%
Russian President Vladimir Putin declared a temporary ceasefire for Orthodox Easter, which Ukraine agreed to observe, temporarily easing frontline hostilities.
Putin Demands Oligarchs Donate to Russia's Dwindling Defense Budget
Putin met with Russia's business elites to demand financial contributions for the war effort, signaling both fiscal strain and his absolute authority over the country's oligarchs.
Former Loyalist Lawyer Ilya Remeslo Publishes Manifesto Calling for Putin's Resignation
December 31, 2026 rises to 13%1%
St. Petersburg lawyer Ilya Remeslo publicly turned on Putin, calling him an illegitimate president over the dead-end war in Ukraine, before being placed in a psychiatric ward within 48 hours.
Kremlin propagandist Ilya Remeslo publicly calls for Putin's resignation and trial
Ilya Remeslo, a former Kremlin propagandist, published a manifesto denouncing Putin as an illegitimate president and calling for his resignation and prosecution as a war criminal. This rare public dissent highlighted cracks in Putin's support but did not lead to any immediate political change or removal.
Putin Warns Russia May Halt Gas Supplies to Europe Amid Middle East Energy Spike
President Vladimir Putin suggested Russia could preemptively stop gas exports to Europe to capitalize on rising energy prices and secure new markets, demonstrating his leverage and political stability.
Analysis highlights mounting pressures on Putin’s regime amid Ukraine war challenges
December 31, 2026 rises to 12%2%
A February 2, 2026 report detailed Russia’s military setbacks and internal challenges but concluded the Putin regime was far from collapse. This tempered market expectations for a near-term leadership change, keeping probabilities for Putin’s departure low.
Putin chairs Kremlin meeting amid ongoing war and domestic pressures
On February 2, 2026, Putin was publicly active, chairing meetings on industrial development, demonstrating continued exercise of presidential duties and no signs of incapacitation or removal, supporting market confidence in his ongoing presidency.
Putin Faces Mounting Military and Economic Challenges Amid Ukraine War
By early February 2026, reports indicated Russia's military was suffering heavy losses and failing to make significant gains in Ukraine, while economic pressures persisted. These challenges increased speculation about Putin's political future but did not produce immediate changes, keeping market probabilities low.
Putin's credibility crumbles amid ongoing Ukraine war and diplomatic isolation
December 31, 2026 rises to 11%1%
Analysts reported that Putin's credibility was eroding domestically and internationally due to the prolonged war and lack of progress in peace talks, increasing uncertainty about his long-term hold on power. However, no direct indication of imminent removal was observed, keeping market prices low.
Putin’s credibility questioned amid ongoing Ukraine war and mounting challenges
By mid-January 2026, analysts noted growing challenges for Putin on the battlefield and at home, with no breakthroughs in Ukraine and increasing pressure, but no indication of his removal or resignation, maintaining market skepticism about a leadership change.
Moscow and St. Petersburg deputies publicly call for Putin’s resignation
Dozens of municipal deputies from major Russian cities issued an open letter demanding Putin’s resignation, signaling political dissent but failing to shift market expectations significantly.
Dozens of municipal deputies petition for Putin’s resignation
Municipal deputies from Moscow and St. Petersburg publicly called for Putin to resign, signaling some political opposition. However, this did not translate into immediate political change or affect Putin’s hold on power, resulting in minimal market impact.
Dozens of Moscow and St. Petersburg deputies call for Putin's resignation
December 31, 2026 rises to 11%1%
On January 13, 2026, municipal deputies from Moscow and St. Petersburg publicly demanded Vladimir Putin's resignation in an open letter. This rare public political dissent briefly raised market speculation about Putin's potential removal, affecting the December 31, 2026 outcome price.
European Commission opens door to future direct talks with Putin but conditions remain
The European Commission publicly stated openness to direct talks with Putin to end the Ukraine war but emphasized that ongoing Russian attacks prevent such dialogue now. This indicated Putin’s continued role as Russia’s leader with no signs of stepping down.
European Commission open to direct talks with Putin but conditions remain
The European Commission expressed willingness for direct dialogue with Putin to end the Ukraine war, but ongoing hostilities and sanctions keep the situation unresolved, maintaining Putin’s position for now.
Rumors swirl about health of Putin ally Ramzan Kadyrov
Reports emerged about the poor health of Putin ally Ramzan Kadyrov, fueling speculation about internal stability within Putin's circle. While not directly about Putin, such rumors contributed to market uncertainty regarding the Kremlin's future leadership dynamics.
Putin begins 2026 in challenging position, rejects compromise peace
Analysis indicated Putin's reluctance to accept any peace deal that preserves Ukrainian statehood, signaling his intent to maintain power and continue the conflict. This contributed to the market's low probability of his removal by end of 2026.
Peace talks in Paris show 90% deal completion but Kremlin stalls
Diplomatic efforts to end the war reached 90% completion, but Putin's Kremlin stalled progress, indicating Putin's continued control and no sign of stepping down, which maintained low market prices for his removal.
Peace talks between Russia, Ukraine, and US stall amid Kremlin resistance
December 31, 2026 rises to 11%1%
Despite claims by European, US, and Ukrainian officials that a peace deal was 90% complete, Kremlin's position remained distant from draft terms in January 2026 talks, with Putin justifying delays citing security concerns. This stalemate indicated Putin's unwillingness to compromise or relinquish power soon, maintaining low market odds for his exit.
Peace deal talks 90% complete but Kremlin remains distant
December 31, 2026 rises to 11%1%
In early January 2026, officials claimed a peace deal with Russia was nearly complete, but Kremlin's position remained distant, with Putin justifying stalling due to a drone attack on his residence. This prolonged uncertainty kept market prices low and stable.
Putin ends 2025 with high approval ratings amid ongoing war
Polling from the Levada Centre showed Putin with an 85% approval rating at the end of 2025, indicating strong public support despite the prolonged conflict. This high approval likely reduced market expectations of his departure within 2026.
Polls show Putin maintains high approval ratings amid war
December 31, 2026 dips to 10%2%
Independent polling from the Levada Centre indicated that Putin continued to enjoy strong public support despite the ongoing war, reducing market expectations of his removal within the near term.
Zelensky announces peace deal is 90% ready in New Year speech
December 31, 2026 dips to 9%1%
Ukrainian President Zelensky stated the peace deal with Russia is 90% ready, adding diplomatic pressure on Putin to engage, though Russian resistance remains strong.
Putin Delivers Traditional New Year's Address Projecting Unity and Vowing Victory
December 31, 2026 dips to 9%3%
Putin used his annual address to rally the nation and project an image of stability and strength, dampening expectations of an imminent exit from the presidency.
Putin delivers New Year address vowing victory in Ukraine war
Putin's New Year speech emphasized his leadership and commitment to victory in Ukraine, projecting strength and continuity. The address lacked any indication of stepping down or political transition, which likely contributed to the market's decline in the probability of his early exit.
Putin Signs Decree Mandating Year-Round Military Conscription
December 31, 2026 dips to 10%2%
Putin signed a decree to transition Russian conscription offices to year-round operations starting in 2026, signaling long-term preparation for sustained conflict and reinforcing his hold on power.
Putin delivers New Year’s address reaffirming leadership amid war
In his annual New Year’s speech, Vladimir Putin rallied Russians around the ongoing war effort and made no indication of stepping down, reinforcing market confidence in his continued presidency through 2026.
Putin delivers defiant New Year address vowing victory in Ukraine war
On December 31, 2025, Vladimir Putin gave a New Year’s address emphasizing Russia’s determination to continue the war in Ukraine and praising Russian troops, signaling no intention to step down or change leadership. This reinforced market confidence that Putin would remain president through the period.
Putin uses New Year’s Address to rally Russians around ongoing war effort
December 31, 2026 dips to 13%1%
On December 31, 2025, Putin delivered a New Year’s address marking his 26th year in power, focusing on national unity and the war effort. This public reaffirmation of leadership further diminished expectations of his resignation within 2026.
Putin delivers muted New Year address, vows victory in Ukraine war
December 31, 2026 dips to 11%3%
In his New Year address, Putin emphasized confidence in victory and unity among Russians, avoiding mention of peace talks or resignation. This reinforced perceptions of his continued hold on power, contributing to a slight market decline in the probability of his removal.
Zelensky Denies Alleged Ukrainian Drone Attack on Putin's Residence
December 31, 2026 dips to 12%1%
Ukraine denied Russian allegations of a drone strike targeting one of Putin's residences, an incident that threatened to derail peace talks and escalate tensions but did not result in physical harm to the Russian leader.
Putin delivers defiant New Year address vowing victory in Ukraine war
December 31, 2026 dips to 10%3%
In his December 30, 2025 New Year address, Putin vowed victory in the Ukraine conflict and framed the war as vital to Russia's survival, reinforcing his leadership role and commitment to ongoing conflict, which likely suppressed market expectations of his departure.
Russia alleges Ukrainian drone assassination attempt on Putin's residence
December 31, 2026 rises to 13%1%
Russian officials claimed Ukraine launched 91 drones in an assassination attempt on Putin's residence, escalating tensions and impacting peace negotiations. This event caused a temporary market reaction, increasing perceived risks to Putin's position but did not indicate imminent removal.
Putin holds strategic meeting with military leadership ahead of US-Ukraine talks
Putin met with Russian General Staff and commanders to discuss military operations just before the US President’s meeting with Ukraine’s Zelensky, signaling no political change or resignation plans. This meeting aimed to project strength and continuity in leadership.
Trump and Zelenskyy Meet at Mar-a-Lago to Discuss Peace Plan After Productive Call with Putin
December 31, 2026 dips to 12%1%
High-stakes negotiations in Florida brought the sides closer to a potential peace deal, reinforcing the likelihood of a negotiated settlement rather than an abrupt, unmanaged regime change in Russia.
Putin agrees with Trump to continue Ukraine peace talks via working groups
Following a phone call initiated by US President Donald Trump, Putin agreed to continue efforts to resolve the Ukraine conflict through two working groups focusing on security and economic issues. This diplomatic engagement briefly raised hopes for a peaceful resolution but did not indicate Putin's removal, causing minor market fluctuations.
Putin and Trump discuss Ukrainian conflict, agree on working groups
A telephone conversation between Putin and U.S. President Trump resulted in agreement to continue diplomatic efforts via working groups on security and economic issues. Despite this, no indication emerged that Putin would step down, maintaining market skepticism about his removal.
Putin and Trump agree to continue peace talks after Mar-a-Lago meeting
December 31, 2026 rises to 14%1%
Following a December 28, 2025, phone call, Putin and US President Donald Trump agreed to further discussions on peace, but no breakthrough occurred. This maintained uncertainty but did not signal Putin's removal, keeping market prices steady.
Putin indicates openness to territory swap in Ukraine but insists on Donbas
Putin's meeting with top businessmen and his statement about territorial concessions in Ukraine showed his active engagement in political strategy and control, suggesting stability in his presidency and no signs of imminent resignation or removal.
Speculation Swirls That Putin Could Step Down Following a Post-War Peace Deal
Reports emerged suggesting that if a peace deal is finalized at the upcoming Mar-a-Lago meeting, Putin might step down in favor of a more moderate successor like Dmitri Kozak, having secured his legacy.
Russian envoy Kirill Dmitriev speaks at Miami peace talks
Dmitriev participated in December 2025 Miami peace talks with U.S. negotiators, signaling Russia's diplomatic engagement despite Putin's resistance to the 90% complete peace deal.
Russia Reports Slow but Steady Progress in Peace Talks with United States
December 31, 2026 dips to 12%1%
Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova stated that talks with the U.S. regarding Ukraine were progressing constructively, signaling potential diplomatic stabilization rather than sudden regime disruption.
Putin Delivers Year-End Address Emphasizing War Effort and Stability
December 31, 2026 dips to 12%1%
On December 19, 2025, Vladimir Putin gave a year-end address reinforcing his commitment to Russia's war efforts and national stability, signaling no intention to step down. This reassured supporters but did not alleviate concerns about his long-term hold on power, contributing to a slight market price decline.
Putin offers no compromise on Ukraine war in year-end press conference
In his December 19, 2025, annual press conference, Putin reiterated his uncompromising stance on the Ukraine conflict, signaling no intention to step down or seek peace concessions. This reinforced market confidence in his continued presidency, contributing to stable prices.
Putin holds end-of-year press conference, offers no compromise on Ukraine war
Putin's firm stance on the Ukraine conflict during his annual press conference signaled his continued control and unwillingness to step down or negotiate terms that might imply weakening his position. This reinforced market confidence in his presidency lasting beyond 2026.
Putin holds annual news conference affirming war goals and leadership
December 31, 2026 dips to 12%2%
At his December 19, 2025 news conference, Putin reiterated that Russia's objectives in Ukraine would be met, signaling no intention to step down and reinforcing regime stability. This likely contributed to a slight price decline in the market as the chance of Putin leaving office diminished.
Putin asserts Kremlin's military goals in Ukraine will be met at annual press conference
December 31, 2026 dips to 12%2%
At his annual year-end press conference, Vladimir Putin expressed confidence that Russian forces were advancing and that Russia would achieve its military objectives in Ukraine, signaling his continued control and leadership. This public display of strength likely contributed to the market's decreased probability of Putin leaving office by the end of 2026.
Putin Vows No More Invasions if West Treats Russia with Respect During Direct Line Marathon
December 31, 2026 dips to 13%1%
During his annual televised 'Direct Line' press conference, Vladimir Putin projected confidence, addressed economic concerns, and outlined conditions for ending the war in Ukraine, signaling his intention to remain firmly in control.
Putin delivers 2025 Year-End Address reaffirming leadership and policy direction
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%2%
In his December 19, 2025, address and press conference, Putin emphasized continuity in governance and Russia's strategic posture, signaling no intention to resign or step down. This reinforced market confidence in his continued presidency through 2026, contributing to stable or slightly declining probabilities for his departure.
ICC confirms Putin arrest warrant remains despite peace talks
The International Criminal Court stated that arrest warrants for Putin will remain active even if peace talks lead to amnesty, underscoring ongoing legal pressures but no immediate effect on his presidency.
Putin vows to seize Donbas region by any means amid upcoming peace talks
December 31, 2026 rises to 14%1%
On December 4, Putin publicly reaffirmed Russia's determination to seize the Donbas region by military or other means, signaling continued strong leadership and no indication of stepping down. This statement maintained market expectations of Putin's ongoing presidency.
Putin reiterates war aims and rejects compromise in India interview
In an interview ahead of his India visit, Putin emphasized that Russia will end the Ukraine war only after achieving his original goals, rejecting compromise and demanding NATO rollback. This reinforced expectations of Putin's continued leadership and reduced speculation about his removal.
Analysis highlights regime transition without clear successor for Putin
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%2%
Reports indicated that personnel changes and political restructuring in 2024-2025 marked the start of a regime transition concentrating authority in Putin's hands but delegating routine management, suggesting no imminent departure.
Putin meets US envoys in Moscow, reiterates firm stance on Ukraine
Putin met with US special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, reaffirming Russia's objectives in Ukraine and rejecting compromises on key demands, signaling his continued control and leadership role.
Putin meets US envoys to discuss revised Ukraine peace proposal
December 31, 2026 dips to 13%2%
On December 2, Putin met with US special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner in Moscow to discuss a revised 28-point peace plan for Ukraine. This high-profile diplomatic engagement underscored Putin's active leadership role, with no signs of resignation or removal, influencing market sentiment downward slightly.
Putin doubles down on threats toward Europe ahead of US peace talks
December 31, 2026 rises to 14%1%
Ahead of peace talks with the US, Putin declared Russia was ready for war with Europe, signaling a hardline stance and continued control over Russian policy. This reinforced expectations of his ongoing presidency and reduced market odds of his removal.
Putin rejects US-Ukrainian peace proposal in Moscow meeting
During a December 2 meeting with a US delegation, Putin rejected the 28-point peace plan, maintaining maximalist war goals and showing no sign of political transition. This rejection likely contributed to market stability in low probability of Putin's exit.
Putin meets US envoys, warns Russia ready for war with Europe
December 31, 2026 rises to 16%2%
On December 2, 2025, Putin met with US envoys and warned Europe of readiness for war, reinforcing his strongman image and signaling no intention to resign. This event likely sustained the market's low probability of his early exit.
Putin warns Europe: Russia ready for war if provoked
On the eve of peace talks, Putin publicly warned Europe that Russia was prepared for war, signaling a hardline stance and consolidating his authority. This assertiveness likely diminished market expectations of his stepping down or being removed soon.
Putin Declares Russia Ready for War if Europe Seeks It
December 31, 2026 rises to 14%1%
Putin warned European leaders against sabotaging peace efforts and stated Russia was prepared for conflict if provoked, reinforcing his long-term grip on national defense.
Resignation of Ukrainian presidential aide Andriy Yermak amid peace talks
December 31, 2026 dips to 13%1%
Andriy Yermak resigned as head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, signaling shifts in Ukraine's negotiating team during ongoing peace talks with Russia. This event affected market perceptions of the conflict's trajectory and Putin's political stability, influencing the December 31, 2026 outcome price.
Reports Reveal Dmitry Kozak Criticized Ukraine War in Letter to Putin Before Resigning
December 31, 2026 dips to 12%2%
Investigative reports detailed that former deputy chief of staff Dmitry Kozak strongly criticized the invasion of Ukraine in a letter to Putin before stepping down, highlighting the complete marginalization of critics within the regime.
Kremlin insider Dmitry Kozak resigns after criticizing war in letter to Putin
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%2%
Dmitry Kozak, a former deputy chief of staff and Kremlin insider, resigned after submitting a letter strongly criticizing the war in Ukraine. His departure removed a key figure who had influence and was seen as a moderate voice, potentially consolidating Putin's inner circle but also signaling internal dissent, which affected market perceptions of regime stability.
Zelenskyy's chief of staff resigns amid corruption investigations
December 31, 2026 dips to 15%2%
While significant for Ukraine, this event had no direct impact on Putin's presidency or indications of his removal. It likely had minimal or no effect on the market for Putin's exit.
Putin denies plans to attack Europe, offers written guarantee against invasion
December 31, 2026 rises to 16%2%
At the CSTO summit, Putin dismissed claims of Russian plans to invade Europe as lies and offered to guarantee in writing no attack on European nations, projecting confidence and stability in his leadership. This reassured markets about regime continuity.
Putin doubles down on demands for Ukrainian territory ahead of US talks
Putin reiterated his core demands for Ukraine to withdraw from territories claimed by Russia, signaling no intention to compromise or step down. This hardened stance likely reinforced market views of Putin's continued presidency through 2026.
Putin attends CSTO summit, endorses US peace plan framework with conditions
At the Collective Security Treaty Organization summit in Bishkek on November 27, 2025, Putin expressed conditional acceptance of the US-backed peace plan as a framework, showing diplomatic engagement but no sign of stepping down. This event sustained market expectations of Putin's continued presidency.
Putin says US-backed peace plan as framework is OK ‘in general’
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%2%
Putin expressed conditional acceptance of the US-backed peace plan framework but insisted on Russia's territorial demands, signaling his continued control and unwillingness to compromise fully. This stance suggested stability in his presidency, contributing to a decline in market expectations of his removal.
Putin reaffirms readiness for war, rejects major concessions
At the CSTO summit, Putin declared Russia's readiness for war if Europe seeks it and rejected significant territorial concessions, signaling a continuation of his current policies. This stance likely decreased market expectations of his imminent departure, reflected in stable low prices for his removal.
Putin Offers Written Guarantees of No Attack on Europe and Signals Openness to Peace Talks
Speaking at the CSTO summit in Bishkek, Putin dismissed fears of a Russian invasion of Europe as ridiculous and expressed willingness to document this guarantee, while projecting confidence in Russia's geopolitical position.
Putin Expresses Openness to US-Backed Peace Plan Framework
December 31, 2026 rises to 15%1%
At the CSTO summit, Putin stated that a leaked US-backed peace plan could serve as a basis for future agreements, though he maintained firm territorial demands.
Putin endorses US peace plan as basis for settlement but warns of continued fighting
December 31, 2026 dips to 15%2%
Putin indicated willingness to consider the US 28-point peace plan pending meaningful discussion, while also warning that Russia could continue military operations if negotiations fail. This stance suggested Putin's active leadership role and no sign of stepping down, influencing market sentiment downward.
Putin delivers brief address at Moscow stadium amid ongoing war
On November 23, 2025, Putin gave a notably short speech to a large crowd in Moscow, reaffirming his leadership during a critical phase of the Ukraine conflict. This event underscored his continued control and presence, which likely tempered market expectations of his imminent departure.
Putin addresses Security Council on U.S. peace plan, signals continued leadership
On November 21, 2025, Putin chaired a Security Council meeting discussing the U.S.-proposed peace plan, reaffirming his leadership role and Russia's war aims. This reinforced market views that Putin would remain president through at least the end of 2026, contributing to the low probability of his early exit.
Putin says US peace plan could be basis for Ukraine peace but demands remain
December 31, 2026 dips to 16%1%
On November 21, 2025, Putin acknowledged the US peace proposal as a potential basis for settlement but insisted on key demands, showing no readiness to compromise or step down. This stance maintained market skepticism about his early departure.
Putin cautiously endorses US peace plan as basis for settlement
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%2%
Putin publicly stated that the US-proposed peace plan could serve as a framework for ending the Ukraine conflict, showing diplomatic engagement without conceding key demands. This tempered market expectations of a sudden leadership change, contributing to a further decline in the probability of Putin's removal.
Putin Backs U.S. 28-Point Peace Plan as Basis for Final Ukraine Settlement
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%1%
Vladimir Putin cautiously welcomed a U.S.-proposed peace plan that aligned with many of Moscow's demands, demonstrating his strong diplomatic leverage and lowering the likelihood of his removal.
Kremlin states Putin does not personally use AI but officials do
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%1%
The Kremlin's statement that Putin himself does not use AI tools but officials do, alongside his call for a national AI task force, indicated ongoing active governance and no signs of stepping down, contributing to market decline in exit probability.
Rising internal dissent and economic challenges in Russia raise questions about Putin's future
Reports highlighted growing dissatisfaction within Russia's political and military ranks and economic difficulties, fueling speculation about regime stability. However, no direct moves against Putin's presidency occurred, leading to minor market fluctuations but no significant price recovery.
Putin meets Chinese Premier Li Qiang in Moscow
On November 19, Putin met with China’s Premier Li Qiang, signaling ongoing diplomatic engagement and political stability, which likely contributed to the market settling at a lower probability of Putin’s exit by December 31, 2026.
Kremlin Acknowledges Brief Hospitalization of Putin Amid Fresh Health Rumors
December 31, 2026 dips to 12%2%
Reports emerged detailing Putin's 'swollen and sore' hands at a public event, alongside a Kremlin acknowledgment of a brief hospitalization in Moscow following a prior two-week absence from public life.
Putin approves sale of Citibank’s Russian operations amid Western sanctions
December 31, 2026 rises to 15%1%
On November 12, Putin authorized the sale of Citibank’s remaining Russian operations, demonstrating continued control over economic decisions despite sanctions, which did not increase market expectations of his exit, reflected in a price around 15-16%.
Putin reiterates commitment to constitutional term limits amid political challenges
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%3%
Putin emphasized maintaining the current two-term presidential limit despite political pressures, signaling no intention to extend or abruptly end his presidency. This reaffirmation contributed to a market price drop to 14% for the December 31, 2026 outcome, reflecting reduced expectations of his early departure.
Putin publicly endorses U.S. peace plan as basis for Ukraine settlement
December 31, 2026 dips to 13%3%
On November 11, 2025, Putin cautiously welcomed a U.S. peace plan for Ukraine, indicating a potential shift toward negotiation but without signaling any intention to resign. This tempered market optimism slightly but did not increase expectations of Putin leaving office by December 31, 2026.
Putin's swollen and sore hands spark health speculation
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%3%
Public appearances showing Putin with visibly swollen and sore hands fueled widespread rumors about his health, raising questions about his ability to continue in office. This speculation increased uncertainty in the market about Putin's longevity as president, contributing to a decline in the probability of his remaining in office.
Retired Russian generals publicly call for Putin's resignation over Ukraine war
December 31, 2026 dips to 13%4%
Retired Colonel-General Leonid Ivashov and other officers criticized Putin's Ukraine strategy and called for his resignation, increasing speculation about Putin's political future but without immediate effect on his presidency.
Kremlin denies reports of fallout between Putin and top diplomat Lavrov
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%3%
On November 10, 2025, reports emerged of a possible rift between Putin and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, but the Kremlin officially denied these claims. The denial likely reassured markets about Putin's grip on power, contributing to a stabilization of the market price.
Kremlin Denies Reports of Rift Between Putin and Top Diplomat Lavrov
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%4%
Speculation about a falling out between Putin and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov circulated but was officially denied by the Kremlin. This denial reduced fears of immediate political instability, contributing to a further decline in the market price for Putin's exit by the end of 2026.
Kremlin denies Putin and Lavrov fell out amid diplomatic tensions
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%3%
Despite rumors of a rift between Putin and Foreign Minister Lavrov, the Kremlin downplayed the speculation, indicating potential internal power dynamics.
Kremlin Denies Rumors of Fallout Between Vladimir Putin and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%3%
The Kremlin actively dismissed speculation that President Vladimir Putin had fallen out with his long-serving top diplomat, Sergei Lavrov, signaling internal stability and dampening rumors of high-level regime fractures.
Putin's swollen and sore hands spark renewed health concerns
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%3%
New video footage showed Vladimir Putin with visibly swollen and sore hands with bulging veins, fueling renewed global speculation about his health and ability to govern. Despite Kremlin denials, this intensified uncertainty about Putin's future but did not trigger immediate market resolution.
Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov absent from key Kremlin meetings amid speculation
December 31, 2026 dips to 17%1%
Sergey Lavrov, Russia's long-serving foreign minister, was notably absent from a key Kremlin Security Council meeting and excluded from Russia's G20 delegation, sparking rumors of a fallout with Putin. The Kremlin denied these rumors, but the event highlighted possible internal political instability, affecting market perceptions of Putin's tenure.
Putin orders proposals on preparing for nuclear weapons tests
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%1%
On November 5, 2025, Putin instructed various ministries to prepare proposals for nuclear weapons tests, emphasizing Russia's military strength and signaling no intention to relinquish power amid international pressure. This assertive posture likely decreased market expectations of his resignation.
Putin orders proposals on resuming nuclear tests in response to US actions
December 31, 2026 dips to 20%1%
On November 5, Putin instructed Russian ministries to prepare proposals for resuming nuclear weapons tests, a direct response to US nuclear testing plans. This assertive stance indicated Putin's firm grip on power and strategic decision-making, reducing market speculation about his removal.
Putin Orders Proposals for Possible Nuclear Weapons Tests
December 31, 2026 dips to 18%2%
Putin instructed multiple ministries to prepare proposals for nuclear weapons testing, signaling heightened tensions and a show of strength. This move increased geopolitical risk perceptions but did not directly indicate imminent presidential change, leading to mixed market reactions and a subsequent price decline.
Putin orders preparations for possible nuclear weapons tests amid escalating tensions
December 31, 2026 dips to 17%3%
Putin's directive to prepare for nuclear weapons tests signaled a hardening stance and an attempt to project strength amid international pressure, reinforcing his control and reducing market expectations of his imminent removal, causing a price decline.
Putin Instructs Agencies to Prepare for Potential Nuclear Weapons Tests
December 31, 2026 dips to 17%3%
Following US statements on nuclear testing, Putin ordered Russian ministries and intelligence services to submit proposals for preparing nuclear tests, signaling a strong military posture.
Putin orders proposals for nuclear weapons test preparations
December 31, 2026 dips to 17%2%
On November 5, 2025, Putin instructed various ministries to prepare proposals for nuclear weapons testing, signaling a hardening stance amid escalating tensions. This assertive move likely reinforced market confidence in Putin's continued hold on power, contributing to a price decline in the 'Yes' outcome for his removal.
Putin Orders Officials to Prepare for Possible Resumption of Nuclear Testing
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%1%
In response to statements from US President Donald Trump, Putin instructed Russian ministries and intelligence agencies to submit proposals for preparing nuclear weapons tests, reinforcing his grip on state security.
Putin awards developers of Burevestnik and Poseidon missile systems
December 31, 2026 dips to 18%1%
Putin publicly recognized missile developers, emphasizing nuclear capabilities as a strategic priority amid growing international tensions.
Putin praises new Russian nuclear weapons capabilities
On November 4, Putin publicly praised the capabilities of new nuclear weapons, reinforcing his image as a strong leader and reducing market speculation about his removal, contributing to a stabilization of the market probability around 20%.
Putin signs law moving Russia to year-round military draft
December 31, 2026 dips to 18%2%
Putin's signing of a law for year-round conscription demonstrated his consolidation of power and commitment to the war effort, signaling regime stability and reducing market expectations of his exit.
Ukraine reports heavy Russian troop deployment in Donetsk amid ongoing conflict
December 31, 2026 dips to 18%2%
On October 31, 2025, Ukraine announced that Russia had deployed 170,000 troops in Donetsk, highlighting the ongoing war and Putin's commitment to military objectives. This sustained conflict under Putin's leadership diminished market expectations of his imminent exit by the end of 2026.
Putin and Foreign Minister Lavrov show contradictory positions on Ukraine war negotiations
December 31, 2026 rises to 23%4%
Conflicting statements from Putin and Lavrov about potential understandings with US President Trump on ending the Ukraine war created uncertainty about Russia's war strategy and Putin's political stability, leading to market volatility and a peak in perceived removal probability.
Putin Announces Successful Test of Tsunami-Making Poseidon Nuclear Weapon
Putin announced the successful test of the nuclear-powered underwater drone Poseidon, projecting military strength and deterrence amid geopolitical tensions.
Putin Boasts of Successful Poseidon Nuclear Torpedo Test
December 31, 2026 rises to 20%1%
Putin announced the successful test of the Poseidon nuclear-propelled underwater drone, continuing aggressive nuclear saber-rattling to project authority and deter Western pressure.
Putin holds government meeting via videoconference amid ongoing military operations
On October 29, Vladimir Putin conducted a government meeting via videoconference, reaffirming his active role in governance and military strategy, signaling no indication of stepping down or removal. This reinforced market confidence in Putin's continued presidency, contributing to price stability.
Putin’s investment envoy continues talks with US officials amid sanctions
December 31, 2026 dips to 20%1%
On October 26, Putin’s special envoy Kirill Dmitriev engaged in talks with US representatives despite recent sanctions on Russian oil companies, signaling Putin’s intent to maintain international economic ties and political control, which tempered market expectations of his imminent exit.
Putin appears unsteady and sways during speech, fueling health speculation
December 31, 2026 dips to 21%1%
Vladimir Putin was observed continuously swaying during a public appearance, reigniting widespread rumors about his health, including possible neurological conditions. This increased uncertainty about his ability to continue in office but did not lead to immediate market resolution.
Putin vows Russia will not cave under US sanctions
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%3%
On October 23, 2025, Putin publicly rejected US and Western sanctions as ineffective and warned of an overwhelming response to any military strikes, signaling his intent to maintain power and resist external pressures. This reinforced market confidence in his continued presidency, contributing to a price decline in the likelihood of his early exit.
Putin oversees large-scale nuclear forces readiness test amid rising tensions
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%2%
On October 22, 2025, Putin directed a major test of Russia's nuclear forces, signaling his continued control and resolve amid geopolitical tensions. This demonstration of military strength reinforced perceptions of Putin's firm grip on power, reducing market expectations of his early departure by December 31, 2026.
Putin Directs Major Strategic Nuclear Forces Exercise Amid Collapsed US Summit
December 31, 2026 dips to 21%1%
Vladimir Putin personally oversaw a massive strategic nuclear triad exercise involving land, sea, and air components, projecting military strength and control after a planned summit with US President Donald Trump fell apart.
Trump cancels planned Putin summit, imposes sanctions on Russian oil firms
December 31, 2026 dips to 18%3%
U.S. President Donald Trump canceled a planned summit with Vladimir Putin citing lack of progress in peace talks and announced new sanctions targeting Russia's largest oil companies. This indicated deteriorating diplomatic relations and reduced expectations for a near-term political transition in Russia, causing a slight market price decline for Putin's exit by December 31, 2026.
Russian government resigns amid constitutional reform proposals
December 31, 2026 dips to 21%1%
The Russian government resigned, and President Putin proposed constitutional changes to shift power dynamics, potentially allowing him to retain influence post-presidency. This event initially raised speculation about Putin's future but did not signal his immediate removal, causing a slight market price decrease for the December 31, 2026 outcome.
Putin faces most consequential crisis of presidency as Ukraine war drags on
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%1%
A Defense.info report detailed how the Ukraine war had become a military, economic, and strategic quagmire for Putin, marking the most precarious moment of his presidency.
Russia Conducts Successful Test of Burevestnik Nuclear-Powered Cruise Missile
December 31, 2026 rises to 21%1%
Russia successfully tested its pioneering atomic-powered cruise missile, signaling military strength and defiance against Western pressure, which reinforced Putin's domestic stability.
Putin reiterates war aims and rejects ceasefire without Ukrainian concessions
December 31, 2026 rises to 21%2%
On October 21, 2025, Putin and Kremlin officials stated Russia would not agree to a ceasefire until Ukraine met demands including neutrality and government change, signaling no political retreat or leadership change. This stance likely maintained market skepticism about Putin's imminent exit.
Heightened geopolitical tensions as Putin and Trump prepare for summit amid nuclear saber-rattling
December 31, 2026 rises to 22%2%
On October 21, 2025, media discussed a potential meeting between Putin and Trump, alongside Putin's public emphasis on new nuclear weapons capabilities, increasing geopolitical tensions. This raised market speculation about Putin's political stability, temporarily boosting the probability of his exit by December 31, 2026.
Russian government resigns amid constitutional reform proposals
The Russian government resigned following President Putin's announcement of constitutional changes to shift power towards the prime minister and reshape governance, signaling attempts to maintain influence beyond his presidential term. This political restructuring suggested Putin's intent to remain central to power, reducing market expectations of his imminent departure.
Trump meets Zelensky; no immediate plans for Putin summit
December 31, 2026 dips to 20%1%
US President Trump's meeting with Ukraine's Zelensky and the absence of a planned summit with Putin signaled ongoing geopolitical tensions without direct engagement, maintaining Putin's position and lowering chances of his removal.
PACE votes to create dialogue platform with exiled Putin opponents; Russia opens criminal probe
December 31, 2026 rises to 21%3%
The Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe initiated a platform for dialogue with exiled opponents of Putin, prompting Russia's FSB to open a criminal investigation accusing dissidents of plotting to seize power. This heightened political tensions but did not indicate imminent leadership change, causing a moderate market uptick.
Russian government resigns amid constitutional reform proposals
December 31, 2026 rises to 21%2%
The Russian government resigned, and Putin proposed constitutional changes to shift power towards the prime minister and reshape governance, signaling a potential post-presidential role for Putin and reducing chances of his immediate departure.
Trump Warns of Supplying Long-Range Tomahawk Missiles to Ukraine if War Is Not Settled
December 31, 2026 rises to 19%2%
U.S. President Donald Trump stated he might supply Ukraine with long-range Tomahawk missiles if the conflict is not resolved, briefly raising geopolitical tensions and causing a minor upward fluctuation in the market.
Putin announces upcoming introduction of new weapons amid military tensions
December 31, 2026 rises to 19%1%
Putin's announcement of new strategic weapons and military footage release reinforced his image as a strong leader committed to Russia's military capabilities, reducing market expectations of his imminent departure.
Retired Russian General Publicly Calls for Putin's Resignation
December 31, 2026 rises to 20%3%
Retired Colonel-General Leonid Ivashov, head of the All-Russian Officers Assembly, publicly demanded that Vladimir Putin resign or be constitutionally removed due to the ongoing Ukraine conflict. This rare open dissent from a high-ranking military figure increased market speculation about Putin's political stability, causing a price rise in the December 31, 2026 outcome.
Putin claims Russian forces captured nearly 5,000 sq km in Ukraine in 2025
Putin's announcement of territorial gains in Ukraine reinforced his control and strategic initiative, bolstering perceptions of his grip on power and reducing immediate expectations of his removal. This contributed to a stable market price around 18%.
Putin highlights historic significance of new nuclear missile systems
On November 4, 2025, Putin praised the development of nuclear-powered cruise missiles as historically significant for Russia, signaling his continued leadership and resolve amid ongoing conflict. This reinforced perceptions of his strong grip on power, contributing to market stability.
Putin states he is not a tsar but an elected president with a fixed term
December 31, 2026 rises to 20%1%
At the Valdai Discussion Club, Putin emphasized he was elected by the people for a certain term and denied being an autocrat or tsar, signaling his intent to remain in office and countering narratives of imminent removal. This likely supported market confidence in his continued presidency.
Putin Rejects 'Tsar' Label at Valdai Conference, Emphasizes Elected Term
December 31, 2026 dips to 18%1%
During the Valdai Discussion Club meeting in Sochi, Putin rejected comparisons to historical emperors, asserting his status as an elected president serving a defined term, which reinforced his political narrative.
Putin Declares He Is No Tsar and Was Elected by the Russian People
December 31, 2026 dips to 18%1%
Speaking at the Valdai Discussion Club, Vladimir Putin rejected the 'tsar' label, emphasizing his constitutional mandate and electoral support, reinforcing his political legitimacy.
Putin Orders Highest Fall Conscription Target in Nine Years
December 31, 2026 rises to 19%1%
Putin signed a decree authorizing the conscription of 135,000 Russian citizens for the Fall 2025 cycle, demonstrating his ongoing commitment to maintaining military readiness and state control.
Putin ally Dmitry Kozak resigns as Kremlin Deputy Chief of Staff
December 31, 2026 dips to 18%1%
Dmitry Kozak, a longtime close collaborator of Putin who had privately opposed the Ukraine invasion, resigned from his deputy chief of staff role. This event suggested possible cracks within Putin's inner circle, briefly increasing market speculation about Putin's potential removal.
Meduza reports on fall of 'Putin's point man' Dmitry Kozak
Dmitry Kozak, the only senior Russian official believed to have opposed the war against Ukraine, resigned as Deputy Chief of Staff. His departure was relatively mild and did not indicate any threat to Putin's presidency.
Russian General Alexander Lapin dismissed from military service
General Alexander Lapin, a pro-war blogger, was reportedly dismissed from military service. This military personnel change had no direct connection to Putin's removal as President.
Putin Declares Russia Will Adhere to Nuclear Arms Limits for One More Year
December 31, 2026 dips to 18%1%
Putin announced that Russia will continue to abide by the New START treaty limits for a year after its February 2026 expiration, projecting stability and long-term strategic planning.
Putin Announces Russia Will Adhere to New START Nuclear Limits for One More Year
President Vladimir Putin announced that Russia would voluntarily stick to the strategic nuclear warhead limits of the New START treaty for an additional year after its expiration in February 2026, signaling a calculated diplomatic posture.
Putin Orders Succession Plan Sourcing Next Leaders from Ukraine War Veterans
President Putin announced that the next generation of Russia's political leadership must be veterans of the Ukraine war, entrenching hard-line nationalism and securing a loyal future political class.
Kremlin confirms resignation of Dmitry Kozak, Putin aide critical of Ukraine war
Dmitri N. Kozak, a long-serving aide to Vladimir Putin who had expressed opposition to the Ukraine invasion, resigned from his position. This was one of the few known dissenting voices within Putin's inner circle, potentially signaling internal tensions but not affecting Putin's presidency.
Dmitry Kozak Resigns as Kremlin Deputy Chief of Staff
Dmitry Kozak, a long-serving aide to President Putin who was critical of the invasion of Ukraine, resigned from his post. This departure removed a potential internal dissenting voice, further consolidating Putin's control.
Putin Removes Kozak, Deputy Head of Presidential Administration
Dmitry Kozak, a longtime aide to Putin who reportedly opposed the Ukraine invasion, resigned from his position. This was one of the few known internal dissenters in Putin's circle, signaling potential instability within the Kremlin leadership.
Trump Considers Legislative Pressure to Force Putin Back to Negotiations
Reports emerged that Trump had a bill ready to pressure Putin to return to peace talks, signaling ongoing diplomatic efforts but no immediate change in Putin’s status. This maintained market skepticism about Putin’s removal within the timeframe.
Trump Pivots on Need for Immediate Ukraine Ceasefire After Meeting Putin
Following his face-to-face talks with Putin, Trump reversed his stance, aligning with Russia's preference to bypass an immediate ceasefire in favor of direct, lengthy peace negotiations.
Trump-Putin Alaska Summit Ends Without Ceasefire Deal
December 31, 2026 dips to 18%1%
The highly anticipated summit in Anchorage, Alaska, ended without a concrete ceasefire agreement, but the meeting's optics treated Putin as an equal, stabilizing his domestic standing.
Putin’s Health Concerns Raised After Limping During Meeting with Trump
Vladimir Putin was observed limping and showing signs of physical distress during a meeting with Donald Trump in Alaska, fueling speculation about his health. Despite these concerns, no official indication of resignation or removal emerged, and the market remained cautious.
Trump and Putin Meet in Alaska Without Reaching Ukraine Peace Deal
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%1%
The summit between Trump and Putin ended without a ceasefire or peace agreement on Ukraine, with Putin maintaining his position on territorial demands. The lack of breakthrough reinforced perceptions of Putin’s continued control, slightly lowering the market’s probability of his removal.
Trump-Putin Alaska Summit Concludes Without Ceasefire Deal
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%1%
The highly anticipated bilateral summit in Anchorage, Alaska, ended with no concrete agreement or ceasefire. However, the warm reception and red-carpet treatment of Putin on US soil was widely viewed as a major political and reputational victory for the Russian leader, reinforcing his stability.
Putin and Trump meet in Alaska amid health speculation and stalled peace talks
Putin met with Trump in Alaska for talks on Ukraine peace but no deal was reached. Observers noted Putin's limping and leg twitching, fueling health rumors. Despite increased scrutiny, Putin remained in power, and the market did not shift significantly on his removal probability.
Trump announces planned summit with Putin in Alaska on August 15
On August 6, Trump announced a planned meeting with Putin in Alaska, signaling ongoing diplomatic engagement rather than a move toward Putin's removal. This maintained market expectations that Putin would remain in power through the near term.
Trump and Putin agree to meet amid ongoing Ukraine conflict
Reports on August 6 indicated an upcoming meeting between Trump and Putin, suggesting diplomatic engagement but no immediate threat to Putin's presidency, thus having minimal impact on market expectations for his removal.
No change in Putin's position despite US sanctions and diplomatic pressure
Despite ongoing US sanctions and diplomatic efforts, Putin remained firmly in power with no announcements of resignation or removal, maintaining market skepticism about his departure within the timeframe.
Kremlin confirms upcoming Putin-Trump meeting amid stalled peace talks
December 31, 2026 rises to 21%2%
On August 6, Kremlin officials announced an agreed meeting between Putin and Trump, raising hopes for diplomatic progress but no indication of Putin stepping down. This maintained the market's low probability for Putin's exit by the end of 2026.
Putin doubts effectiveness of Trump's sanctions ultimatum
On August 5, sources close to the Kremlin reported Putin's skepticism about the impact of the US sanctions deadline, reinforcing his stance to continue the war and maintain power, which kept market probabilities low for his early removal.
Putin unlikely to yield to US sanctions ultimatum, aims to capture Ukrainian regions
December 31, 2026 rises to 21%2%
On August 5, sources close to the Kremlin indicated Putin's determination to continue military objectives despite looming US sanctions, signaling no intention to resign or step down, which kept market probabilities for his exit low.
Putin signals no change in Russia's stance on Ukraine despite sanctions deadline
December 31, 2026 rises to 21%2%
Putin stated that Moscow hopes for future peace talks but affirmed that the momentum of the war was in Russia's favor, indicating no intention to step down or change course. This reinforced market expectations that Putin would remain president through 2026.
Putin claims Russian army advancing along entire line of contact in Ukraine
On August 1, Putin publicly asserted military progress in Ukraine, reflecting his ongoing leadership and control over Russian military strategy. This public engagement indicated no change in his presidential status, maintaining market stability.
Unverified Reports of Coup Planning Within Russia’s General Staff Emerge
Reports surfaced alleging that some officers in Russia's General Staff were considering a coup due to fears of repression if the Ukraine war ends unfavorably. These rumors increased uncertainty but lacked confirmation, limiting market impact.
Trump shortens ultimatum for Putin to negotiate peace to 10-12 days
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%1%
On July 28, U.S. President Donald Trump announced a reduced deadline for Putin to agree to peace negotiations, reflecting increased international pressure on Putin. Despite this, no indication emerged that Putin would step down, and the market price remained stable or slightly declined.
Trump Shortens Russia's Peace Deal Deadline to 10 to 12 Days
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%2%
US President Donald Trump accelerated his ultimatum to Russia, shortening the deadline to agree to a ceasefire from 50 days to just 10 to 12 days under threat of severe tariffs. This escalation increased geopolitical tension but ultimately highlighted Putin's refusal to back down under Western pressure.
Trump Cuts 50-Day Deadline for Putin to Reach Ukraine Peace Deal in Half
December 31, 2026 dips to 20%2%
President Donald Trump reduced the deadline for Putin to reach a peace deal on Ukraine from 50 days to less than two weeks, signaling increased pressure on Putin. This political pressure did not translate into expectations of Putin leaving office, reflected in stable market prices.
Donald Trump shortens deadline for Putin to stop Ukraine war killings
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%1%
On July 28, US President Donald Trump gave Putin a 10-12 day deadline to halt killings in Ukraine, increasing international pressure on Putin. Despite this, Putin remained defiant, which maintained market skepticism about any imminent change in his presidency.
Trump announces new peace deadline for Putin: 10-12 days to negotiate Ukraine ceasefire
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%3%
President Trump announced a new deadline for Putin to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine, reducing his previous 50-day deadline by 38 days. This intensified pressure on Putin and raised concerns about his ability to maintain control.
Trump shortens deadline for Putin to end Ukraine war
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%1%
Trump publicly reduced the deadline for Putin to reach a peace deal in Ukraine to 10-12 days, signaling increased pressure but no indication of Putin stepping down, which kept market confidence low.
Trump Shortens Ukraine Ceasefire Ultimatum for Putin to 10-12 Days
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%2%
U.S. President Donald Trump dramatically shortened his previous 50-day deadline for Russia to agree to a ceasefire to just 10 to 12 days, threatening severe secondary tariffs and sanctions.
Putin attends funeral of Supreme Court Chief Justice Irina Podnosova
Putin's public attendance at the funeral of a top judicial figure on July 24 demonstrated his continued active role in state affairs, signaling no signs of stepping down or incapacitation, which supported market confidence in his presidency.
Putin and Trump hold joint appearance discussing Ukraine ceasefire
US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin held a joint appearance in Alaska discussing a ceasefire in Ukraine, but no agreement was reached. This diplomatic failure may have contributed to market volatility.
Russian Military Faces Heavy Casualties and Economic Strain
December 31, 2026 dips to 20%1%
Reports indicated that Russian forces suffered heavy casualties and the economy was under strain, with reluctance from Putin to mobilize reserves. This military and economic pressure contributed to market uncertainty about Putin’s political future but did not signal immediate removal.
Zelenskyy appoints Yulia Svyrydenko as new prime minister for war-weary Ukraine
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy appointed Yulia Svyrydenko as Ukraine's new prime minister following Shmyhal's resignation. This leadership change in Ukraine may have affected market perceptions of stability and the ongoing conflict with Russia.
Russian drone attack on Kharkiv, Ukraine's second-largest city
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%2%
A Russian drone attack hit Kharkiv, damaging infrastructure and killing civilians. This military escalation increased instability and raised concerns about Putin's control over the war effort.
Putin vows to continue Ukraine war despite Western sanctions threats
December 31, 2026 rises to 21%1%
On July 15, sources close to the Kremlin reported Putin's determination to keep fighting in Ukraine until his terms for peace are met, showing no sign of stepping down. This reinforced market sentiment that Putin would remain in power, stabilizing the price around 20-21%.
Ukraine's Prime Minister resigns amid major government reshuffle
December 31, 2026 rises to 22%2%
While not directly related to Putin's presidency, the resignation of Ukraine's Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal on July 15 amid wartime reshuffling reflected ongoing regional instability, indirectly influencing perceptions of Putin's regime stability and the market's outlook.
Ukrainian PM Denys Shmyhal resigns amid major government reshuffle
Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal tendered his resignation as part of a major government reshuffle, leading to a cabinet dissolution. This political change in Ukraine may have influenced market sentiment regarding the stability of the Ukraine-Russia relationship.
Putin vows to continue fighting in Ukraine despite Trump's threats
December 31, 2026 rises to 22%2%
Putin publicly rejected US President Trump's sanctions threats and affirmed his commitment to the Ukraine conflict, signaling regime stability and no indication of stepping down, which likely suppressed market expectations of his removal.
Putin unfazed by Trump's sanctions threats, vows to continue Ukraine offensive
On July 15, sources close to the Kremlin reported Putin's determination to continue the war in Ukraine despite threats of tougher sanctions from the US. This reinforced expectations that Putin would remain in power to pursue his military objectives, contributing to stable market pricing.
Trump threatens severe tariffs on Russia if no Ukraine ceasefire in 50 days
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%1%
US President Donald Trump announced a 50-day deadline for Putin to agree to a ceasefire in Ukraine, threatening very severe secondary tariffs starting at 100%. This increased international pressure on Putin but did not lead to any immediate change in his presidency, maintaining market skepticism.
Trump claims Putin wanted peace in Ukraine, a reversal of stance
December 31, 2026 dips to 20%3%
President Trump stated that Putin had previously expressed interest in peace in Ukraine, a significant shift from his earlier criticism of Putin. This created uncertainty about Putin's intentions and stability.
Trump sharply criticizes Putin over Ukraine war
US President Donald Trump increased his criticism of Vladimir Putin following unsuccessful calls to end the war in Ukraine, signaling continued US pressure but no immediate political change in Russia. This maintained market skepticism about Putin's removal.
Russian Transport Minister Roman Starovoit Found Dead Hours After Being Fired by Putin
December 31, 2026 drops to 18%5%
Russian Transport Minister Roman Starovoit was found dead from an apparent suicide shortly after being dismissed by President Vladimir Putin, signaling tightening control and high stakes within the Kremlin elite.
Detention of Russian elite figures signals Kremlin tightening control
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%1%
On July 7, two major Russian figures, Konstantin Strukov and Viktor Strigunov, were detained on corruption charges, indicating a crackdown within the elite. This suggested internal instability but no direct threat to Putin's presidency, contributing to market uncertainty and a slight price decline.
Former Russian Transport Minister Roman Starovoit fired and found dead
Putin removed Roman Starovoit from his ministerial post on July 7; hours later, Starovoit was found dead, reportedly by suicide. This event underscored elite instability but did not indicate any change in Putin's presidency, contributing to market uncertainty.
US proposes sanctions package targeting Russia's energy sector
December 31, 2026 drops to 18%5%
The US proposed a sanctions package under the Sanctioning Russia Act of 2025, aiming to broadly target Russia's energy sector and impose secondary sanctions. This increased pressure on Russia's economy but did not directly threaten Putin's presidency, contributing to a slight market dip.
US Senators Propose Sanctions Targeting Russia’s Energy Sector
December 31, 2026 dips to 21%2%
US senators Lindsey Graham and Richard Blumenthal proposed the Sanctioning Russia Act of 2025, aiming to impose broad tariffs and secondary sanctions on Russia’s energy sector to increase economic pressure on Putin’s regime. This heightened economic pressure was expected to challenge Putin’s hold on power but did not immediately affect his presidency.
Putin pushes for increased volunteer recruitment amid waning domestic support
On July 6, Putin attended a forum aimed at boosting volunteer recruitment, signaling concerns about domestic support for the war effort. This indicated Putin's intent to maintain his grip on power and continue the conflict, which likely kept market confidence in his presidency stable.
Putin attends 'Everything for Victory' forum to boost volunteer recruitment amid waning support
On July 6, Putin attended a forum aimed at increasing volunteer recruitment for the war effort, signaling efforts to bolster domestic support amid challenges. This event underscored Putin's continued active role and control, which likely tempered market expectations of his imminent departure.
Putin attends pro-war 'Everything for Victory' forum amid recruitment push
December 31, 2026 drops to 18%5%
On July 6, Putin attended a major pro-Kremlin event aimed at boosting volunteer recruitment for the war effort, signaling his intent to continue the conflict and maintain power. This reinforced market expectations that Putin would remain president, contributing to a price drop from 23% to 18% for his departure by December 31, 2026.
Trump signals possible meeting with Putin amid Ukraine war talks
December 31, 2026 dips to 20%3%
Reports emerged that US President Donald Trump might meet Russian President Vladimir Putin soon to discuss Ukraine peace efforts, raising some market speculation about political shifts but no direct indication of Putin leaving office.
Putin attends pro-Kremlin 'Everything for Victory' forum amid elite detentions
December 31, 2026 dips to 20%3%
On July 6, Putin attended a major pro-Kremlin forum promoting victory over Ukraine, coinciding with the Kremlin's crackdown on elites, including detentions of major business and security figures. This reinforced Putin's control but highlighted internal tensions, slightly affecting market confidence in his continued presidency.
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