Russia’s Supreme Court ruling on August 10, 2026, removed Yabloko’s federal party list from the September State Duma ballot after a Rodina lawsuit citing copyright issues, campaign finance violations, and alleged foreign funding; the appeal was rejected days later, leaving the exclusion final ahead of the vote. This bars the liberal opposition party from competing in the proportional representation system that allocates half the chamber’s seats, where parties must exceed the 5% threshold to gain representation. Yabloko has failed to clear that bar in every national election since 1999 and typically polled at 1-4% in state-aligned surveys, though some independent polls recorded a modest pre-ruling rise linked to its explicit anti-war platform. Single-mandate district candidacies remain possible but carry negligible prospects for threshold impact. The near-certain trader consensus reflects this structural barrier, with reversal hinging on improbable further court interventions before results are certified.