Lindsey Graham faced a crowded Republican primary field for South Carolina’s U.S. Senate seat on June 9, 2026, with polls in the final week showing him in the mid-to-high 40s or low 50s against Mark Lynch and lesser-known challengers. This positioning kept the leading vote-share brackets tightly contested in trader consensus, as fragmented opposition and late spending by Graham allies made a comfortable majority uncertain while raising the prospect of a stronger showing by the main alternative. Recent surveys highlighted Lynch drawing 20-30 percent support in some samples, underscoring the risk of vote splitting that could compress Graham’s margin or trigger different resolution brackets. Key factors influencing separation included turnout among core Republican voters, last-minute endorsements, and any shifts in messaging on foreign policy or leadership change.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoPrimária Republicana no Senado da Carolina do Sul: Margem de Vitória na Primeira Rodada
Primária Republicana no Senado da Carolina do Sul: Margem de Vitória na Primeira Rodada
Graham 10–20% 6%
Graham 40–50% 5%
Graham <10% 1.6%
Lynch Vence 1.1%
$6,944 Vol.
$6,944 Vol.
9 jun 2026
Graham 50%+
<1%
Graham 40–50%
5%
Graham 30–40%
41%
Graham 20–30%
42%
Graham 10–20%
6%
Graham <10%
2%
Lynch Vence
1%
Graham 10–20% 6%
Graham 40–50% 5%
Graham <10% 1.6%
Lynch Vence 1.1%
$6,944 Vol.
$6,944 Vol.
9 jun 2026
Graham 50%+
$1,361 Vol.
<1%
Graham 40–50%
$1,492 Vol.
5%
Graham 30–40%
$216 Vol.
41%
Graham 20–30%
$672 Vol.
42%
Graham 10–20%
$942 Vol.
6%
Graham <10%
$1,719 Vol.
2%
Lynch Vence
$562 Vol.
1%
Primary elections in South Carolina are scheduled to be held on June 9, 2026, with a runoff election scheduled to be held on June 23, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the South Carolina Senate Republican Primary.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of South Carolina, such as official statewide results published by the South Carolina Election Commission (https://scvotes.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Lindsey Graham faced a crowded Republican primary field for South Carolina’s U.S. Senate seat on June 9, 2026, with polls in the final week showing him in the mid-to-high 40s or low 50s against Mark Lynch and lesser-known challengers. This positioning kept the leading vote-share brackets tightly contested in trader consensus, as fragmented opposition and late spending by Graham allies made a comfortable majority uncertain while raising the prospect of a stronger showing by the main alternative. Recent surveys highlighted Lynch drawing 20-30 percent support in some samples, underscoring the risk of vote splitting that could compress Graham’s margin or trigger different resolution brackets. Key factors influencing separation included turnout among core Republican voters, last-minute endorsements, and any shifts in messaging on foreign policy or leadership change.
Primary elections in South Carolina are scheduled to be held on June 9, 2026, with a runoff election scheduled to be held on June 23, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the South Carolina Senate Republican Primary.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of South Carolina, such as official statewide results published by the South Carolina Election Commission (https://scvotes.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the South Carolina Senate Republican Primary.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of South Carolina, such as official statewide results published by the South Carolina Election Commission (https://scvotes.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Mercado Aberto: Jun 8, 2026, 3:00 PM ET
Volume
$6,944Data de Término
9 jun 2026Mercado Aberto
Jun 8, 2026, 3:00 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Primary elections in South Carolina are scheduled to be held on June 9, 2026, with a runoff election scheduled to be held on June 23, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the South Carolina Senate Republican Primary.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of South Carolina, such as official statewide results published by the South Carolina Election Commission (https://scvotes.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Lindsey Graham faced a crowded Republican primary field for South Carolina’s U.S. Senate seat on June 9, 2026, with polls in the final week showing him in the mid-to-high 40s or low 50s against Mark Lynch and lesser-known challengers. This positioning kept the leading vote-share brackets tightly contested in trader consensus, as fragmented opposition and late spending by Graham allies made a comfortable majority uncertain while raising the prospect of a stronger showing by the main alternative. Recent surveys highlighted Lynch drawing 20-30 percent support in some samples, underscoring the risk of vote splitting that could compress Graham’s margin or trigger different resolution brackets. Key factors influencing separation included turnout among core Republican voters, last-minute endorsements, and any shifts in messaging on foreign policy or leadership change.
Primary elections in South Carolina are scheduled to be held on June 9, 2026, with a runoff election scheduled to be held on June 23, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the South Carolina Senate Republican Primary.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of South Carolina, such as official statewide results published by the South Carolina Election Commission (https://scvotes.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the South Carolina Senate Republican Primary.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of South Carolina, such as official statewide results published by the South Carolina Election Commission (https://scvotes.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$6,944Data de Término
9 jun 2026Mercado Aberto
Jun 8, 2026, 3:00 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Lindsey Graham faced a crowded Republican primary field for South Carolina’s U.S. Senate seat on June 9, 2026, with polls in the final week showing him in the mid-to-high 40s or low 50s against Mark Lynch and lesser-known challengers. This positioning kept the leading vote-share brackets tightly contested in trader consensus, as fragmented opposition and late spending by Graham allies made a comfortable majority uncertain while raising the prospect of a stronger showing by the main alternative. Recent surveys highlighted Lynch drawing 20-30 percent support in some samples, underscoring the risk of vote splitting that could compress Graham’s margin or trigger different resolution brackets. Key factors influencing separation included turnout among core Republican voters, last-minute endorsements, and any shifts in messaging on foreign policy or leadership change.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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