**Ongoing US-Iran conflict and persistent shipping attacks have kept Strait of Hormuz transits at near-standstill levels into mid-August 2026, driving the 89.5% market-implied probability that traffic will not return to normal by September 30.** Since the escalation following the late-February 2026 US-Israel strikes on Iran, vessel traffic has fallen sharply—often to fewer than 50-80 transits per week versus pre-war norms exceeding 150—due to Iranian attacks on commercial ships, US naval blockade enforcement, and Tehran’s demands for approved routes and transit fees. Recent incidents, including strikes on two UAE tankers in mid-August and continued US warnings of indefinite blockade and stepped-up economic pressure, have reinforced risk aversion among shipowners. Iranian assertions of control over the waterway, coupled with President Trump’s statements on potential US territorial claims, have further eroded prospects for rapid de-escalation. While Iran-Oman talks on shipping coordinates continue, no comprehensive agreement has restored pre-war volumes, and periodic attacks plus lingering security concerns (including potential mines) create high barriers to normalization within the next six weeks. Trader consensus reflects these entrenched dynamics, with the market pricing in sustained disruption absent a major diplomatic or military breakthrough.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoSim
11% chance
$3,652,909 Vol.
$3,652,909 Vol.
30 set 2026
Sim
11% chance
$3,652,909 Vol.
$3,652,909 Vol.
30 set 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and September 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for September 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.**Ongoing US-Iran conflict and persistent shipping attacks have kept Strait of Hormuz transits at near-standstill levels into mid-August 2026, driving the 89.5% market-implied probability that traffic will not return to normal by September 30.**
Since the escalation following the late-February 2026 US-Israel strikes on Iran, vessel traffic has fallen sharply—often to fewer than 50-80 transits per week versus pre-war norms exceeding 150—due to Iranian attacks on commercial ships, US naval blockade enforcement, and Tehran’s demands for approved routes and transit fees. Recent incidents, including strikes on two UAE tankers in mid-August and continued US warnings of indefinite blockade and stepped-up economic pressure, have reinforced risk aversion among shipowners. Iranian assertions of control over the waterway, coupled with President Trump’s statements on potential US territorial claims, have further eroded prospects for rapid de-escalation.
While Iran-Oman talks on shipping coordinates continue, no comprehensive agreement has restored pre-war volumes, and periodic attacks plus lingering security concerns (including potential mines) create high barriers to normalization within the next six weeks. Trader consensus reflects these entrenched dynamics, with the market pricing in sustained disruption absent a major diplomatic or military breakthrough.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and September 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for September 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for September 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Mercado Aberto: Jul 2, 2026, 4:44 PM ET
Volume
$3,652,909Data de Término
30 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 2, 2026, 4:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and September 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for September 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.**Ongoing US-Iran conflict and persistent shipping attacks have kept Strait of Hormuz transits at near-standstill levels into mid-August 2026, driving the 89.5% market-implied probability that traffic will not return to normal by September 30.**
Since the escalation following the late-February 2026 US-Israel strikes on Iran, vessel traffic has fallen sharply—often to fewer than 50-80 transits per week versus pre-war norms exceeding 150—due to Iranian attacks on commercial ships, US naval blockade enforcement, and Tehran’s demands for approved routes and transit fees. Recent incidents, including strikes on two UAE tankers in mid-August and continued US warnings of indefinite blockade and stepped-up economic pressure, have reinforced risk aversion among shipowners. Iranian assertions of control over the waterway, coupled with President Trump’s statements on potential US territorial claims, have further eroded prospects for rapid de-escalation.
While Iran-Oman talks on shipping coordinates continue, no comprehensive agreement has restored pre-war volumes, and periodic attacks plus lingering security concerns (including potential mines) create high barriers to normalization within the next six weeks. Trader consensus reflects these entrenched dynamics, with the market pricing in sustained disruption absent a major diplomatic or military breakthrough.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and September 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for September 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for September 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$3,652,909Data de Término
30 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Jul 2, 2026, 4:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Ongoing US-Iran conflict and persistent shipping attacks have kept Strait of Hormuz transits at near-standstill levels into mid-August 2026, driving the 89.5% market-implied probability that traffic will not return to normal by September 30.** Since the escalation following the late-February 2026 US-Israel strikes on Iran, vessel traffic has fallen sharply—often to fewer than 50-80 transits per week versus pre-war norms exceeding 150—due to Iranian attacks on commercial ships, US naval blockade enforcement, and Tehran’s demands for approved routes and transit fees. Recent incidents, including strikes on two UAE tankers in mid-August and continued US warnings of indefinite blockade and stepped-up economic pressure, have reinforced risk aversion among shipowners. Iranian assertions of control over the waterway, coupled with President Trump’s statements on potential US territorial claims, have further eroded prospects for rapid de-escalation. While Iran-Oman talks on shipping coordinates continue, no comprehensive agreement has restored pre-war volumes, and periodic attacks plus lingering security concerns (including potential mines) create high barriers to normalization within the next six weeks. Trader consensus reflects these entrenched dynamics, with the market pricing in sustained disruption absent a major diplomatic or military breakthrough.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions