**Congressional gridlock and partisan divides on regulatory scope have kept comprehensive AI safety legislation from advancing beyond committee markups.** Multiple bills addressing frontier model audits, risk assessments, incident reporting, and NIST oversight cleared the House Science Committee in June 2026 and saw Senate Commerce Committee discussions, yet none reached the floor before the House adjourned on September 17. Lawmakers will not reconvene until after the November midterms, leaving insufficient time for passage and presidential action before 2027. President Trump has publicly dismissed existential-risk concerns as a “hoax” and aligned with industry arguments that strict rules would cede ground to China, while Democrats push stronger liability and transparency measures. Traders price the low odds of enactment accordingly, reflecting stalled bipartisan talks and the narrow remaining calendar window.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoEUA promulgam lei de segurança de IA antes de 2027?
EUA promulgam lei de segurança de IA antes de 2027?
Sim
10% chance
$136,103 Vol.
$136,103 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Sim
10% chance
$136,103 Vol.
$136,103 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. **Congressional gridlock and partisan divides on regulatory scope have kept comprehensive AI safety legislation from advancing beyond committee markups.** Multiple bills addressing frontier model audits, risk assessments, incident reporting, and NIST oversight cleared the House Science Committee in June 2026 and saw Senate Commerce Committee discussions, yet none reached the floor before the House adjourned on September 17. Lawmakers will not reconvene until after the November midterms, leaving insufficient time for passage and presidential action before 2027. President Trump has publicly dismissed existential-risk concerns as a “hoax” and aligned with industry arguments that strict rules would cede ground to China, while Democrats push stronger liability and transparency measures. Traders price the low odds of enactment accordingly, reflecting stalled bipartisan talks and the narrow remaining calendar window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ET
Volume
$136,103Data de Término
1 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. **Congressional gridlock and partisan divides on regulatory scope have kept comprehensive AI safety legislation from advancing beyond committee markups.** Multiple bills addressing frontier model audits, risk assessments, incident reporting, and NIST oversight cleared the House Science Committee in June 2026 and saw Senate Commerce Committee discussions, yet none reached the floor before the House adjourned on September 17. Lawmakers will not reconvene until after the November midterms, leaving insufficient time for passage and presidential action before 2027. President Trump has publicly dismissed existential-risk concerns as a “hoax” and aligned with industry arguments that strict rules would cede ground to China, while Democrats push stronger liability and transparency measures. Traders price the low odds of enactment accordingly, reflecting stalled bipartisan talks and the narrow remaining calendar window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$136,103Data de Término
1 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Congressional gridlock and partisan divides on regulatory scope have kept comprehensive AI safety legislation from advancing beyond committee markups.** Multiple bills addressing frontier model audits, risk assessments, incident reporting, and NIST oversight cleared the House Science Committee in June 2026 and saw Senate Commerce Committee discussions, yet none reached the floor before the House adjourned on September 17. Lawmakers will not reconvene until after the November midterms, leaving insufficient time for passage and presidential action before 2027. President Trump has publicly dismissed existential-risk concerns as a “hoax” and aligned with industry arguments that strict rules would cede ground to China, while Democrats push stronger liability and transparency measures. Traders price the low odds of enactment accordingly, reflecting stalled bipartisan talks and the narrow remaining calendar window.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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