Tensions between the United States and Cuba have intensified in 2026 amid Cuba’s deepening economic crisis, fuel shortages, and blackouts, prompting the Trump administration to restore restrictive measures such as the Cuba restricted list and elevate Western Hemisphere priorities in national security planning. Pentagon assessments of military options, increased U.S. surveillance overflights, deployment of the USS Nimitz carrier strike group and Marine expeditionary units to the Caribbean, and public statements from officials including Secretary of State Marco Rubio have signaled readiness for potential limited strikes or pressure operations against Cuban military and intelligence targets. These developments, alongside the recent U.S. operation capturing Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, have shaped trader assessments of escalation risks, with scheduled force rotations and ongoing diplomatic signaling likely to influence probabilities through year-end resolution windows.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoAção militar dos EUA contra Cuba por...?
Ação militar dos EUA contra Cuba por...?
$7,279,113 Vol.
31 dez 2026
31 de dezembro
19%
$7,279,113 Vol.
31 de dezembro
$5,100,008 Vol.
19%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Tensions between the United States and Cuba have intensified in 2026 amid Cuba’s deepening economic crisis, fuel shortages, and blackouts, prompting the Trump administration to restore restrictive measures such as the Cuba restricted list and elevate Western Hemisphere priorities in national security planning. Pentagon assessments of military options, increased U.S. surveillance overflights, deployment of the USS Nimitz carrier strike group and Marine expeditionary units to the Caribbean, and public statements from officials including Secretary of State Marco Rubio have signaled readiness for potential limited strikes or pressure operations against Cuban military and intelligence targets. These developments, alongside the recent U.S. operation capturing Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, have shaped trader assessments of escalation risks, with scheduled force rotations and ongoing diplomatic signaling likely to influence probabilities through year-end resolution windows.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Mercado Aberto: Jan 4, 2026, 3:08 PM ET
Volume
$7,279,113Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 4, 2026, 3:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Tensions between the United States and Cuba have intensified in 2026 amid Cuba’s deepening economic crisis, fuel shortages, and blackouts, prompting the Trump administration to restore restrictive measures such as the Cuba restricted list and elevate Western Hemisphere priorities in national security planning. Pentagon assessments of military options, increased U.S. surveillance overflights, deployment of the USS Nimitz carrier strike group and Marine expeditionary units to the Caribbean, and public statements from officials including Secretary of State Marco Rubio have signaled readiness for potential limited strikes or pressure operations against Cuban military and intelligence targets. These developments, alongside the recent U.S. operation capturing Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, have shaped trader assessments of escalation risks, with scheduled force rotations and ongoing diplomatic signaling likely to influence probabilities through year-end resolution windows.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Volume
$7,279,113Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 4, 2026, 3:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Tensions between the United States and Cuba have intensified in 2026 amid Cuba’s deepening economic crisis, fuel shortages, and blackouts, prompting the Trump administration to restore restrictive measures such as the Cuba restricted list and elevate Western Hemisphere priorities in national security planning. Pentagon assessments of military options, increased U.S. surveillance overflights, deployment of the USS Nimitz carrier strike group and Marine expeditionary units to the Caribbean, and public statements from officials including Secretary of State Marco Rubio have signaled readiness for potential limited strikes or pressure operations against Cuban military and intelligence targets. These developments, alongside the recent U.S. operation capturing Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, have shaped trader assessments of escalation risks, with scheduled force rotations and ongoing diplomatic signaling likely to influence probabilities through year-end resolution windows.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions