Recent elevated error incidents across Claude models, including multiple resolved events in late July 2026, underscore Anthropic's recurring infrastructure strain amid rapid scaling and new releases like Opus 5 and Sonnet 5. Traders see this pattern—major disruptions in March and June plus frequent short outages—as evidence of persistent reliability challenges that could produce anywhere from minimal to double-digit downtime days in August, depending on traffic surges, model updates, and cloud fixes. The even 50% split across buckets reflects uncertainty over whether recent mitigations will stabilize service or if competitive pressures and usage growth will sustain volatility.