**Trader consensus on a U.S. invasion of Greenland in 2026 remains near-certain at 96.4% "No" due to structural and diplomatic barriers that have held firm since early-year tensions peaked.** President Trump initially refused to rule out military force and threatened tariffs on Denmark and other NATO allies to secure the territory, citing Arctic security and countering Russia and China. However, on January 21, 2026, he publicly reversed course at Davos, stating he would not use force and instead sought negotiations, later referencing a potential framework deal with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte. The Pentagon has not been directed to develop invasion plans, and any military action against a NATO member would trigger alliance collapse and severe international isolation. Ongoing U.S. efforts center on expanded basing rights, resource access through private-sector activity, and diplomatic pressure rather than territorial seizure. Recent developments, including a Trump-linked firm's unauthorized drilling preparations in August 2026, reflect continued interest but remain firmly non-military. Scenarios that could still shift odds include abrupt breakdown of current talks, major escalation tied to broader Arctic or Iran-related conflicts, or a sudden policy reversal—though these face high hurdles given NATO constraints and existing U.S. military access via Pituffik Space Base.